7:52 Catterick
A competitive Class 5 handicap over the minimum trip at Catterick on good ground brings together seven sprinters, several of whom have shown fair form and possess previous course success. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Lucius Aurelius heading the numbers on 66, closely followed by Isle Of Lismore on 64, while Glory Fighter and Equity Law both sit on 59. Recent form is mixed across the field, but course records and trainer/jockey combinations at Catterick will be key factors on a night when the pace is expected to be strong.
How the race shapes up
With a strong pace likely and multiple horses that tend to race prominently or on the lead, the early gallop should be genuine and could set the race up for those coming from off the pace. Glory Fighter is the clearest front-runner, while Lucius Aurelius, Isle Of Lismore, Equity Law, Winchurch and Arctic Summer are all usually handy or on the pace. This shape poses the question of whether the leaders will pay for their exertions late on, potentially handing an advantage to any horse that can be produced with a well-timed run from behind.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Lucius Aurelius KTB Selection66/100Lucius Aurelius is a fair sprinter who arrives in form after a clear Catterick win last time and now drops back into a Class 5.
- 2Isle Of Lismore64/100Isle Of Lismore is a fair handicapper who has won at this trip and recorded a win from four runs at Catterick.
- 3Glory Fighter59/100Glory Fighter is a fair 10-year-old with a solid record here, including two wins from nine runs at Catterick, and he has also won six times over this trip.
- 4Equity Law59/100Equity Law has run to a fair standard on his day with an RPR of 85 and has solid course connections having won his only start here.
- 5Winchurch57/100Fair performer who arrives in decent nick after a win and a close fourth on his last two starts.
- 6Le Beau Garcon51/100Le Beau Garcon is a fair handicapper who has shown consistent placed form at Catterick without winning and has four wins at this trip from 25 runs.
- 7Arctic Summer42/100Arctic Summer is a fair performer on his best days but has been below form in four of his last five starts and looks vulnerable from stall 2.
The contenders
Lucius Aurelius KTB Fit 66/100
Lucius Aurelius is a fair sprinter who arrives in form after a clear Catterick win last time and now drops back into a Class 5. He has won on good ground and at this trip though his overall strike rate at five furlongs is modest. The yard has a solid record here while the 5lb claimer is operating at a high strike rate on these tracks. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he is well placed to track the expected strong pace from draw 3. With an RPR of 83 and recent form figures of -59010, the selection looks to have the right blend of current confidence and course familiarity.
Isle Of Lismore KTB Fit 64/100
Isle Of Lismore is a fair handicapper who has won at this trip and recorded a win from four runs at Catterick. He arrives in reasonable form after a solid third on his final start last season and has posted an RPR of 86. The yard and jockey both hold above-average records at the track while he handles good ground. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead from draw 5, he should be well positioned to track the strong pace. Dropping in class with recent form figures of 4883-5, he is entitled to be thereabouts once again.
Glory Fighter KTB Fit 59/100
Glory Fighter is a fair 10-year-old with a solid record here, including two wins from nine runs at Catterick, and he has also won six times over this trip. He has three wins from 20 starts on good ground and arrives in reasonable form having won at this level in June, though his recent efforts have been mixed. The trainer has a 10% strike rate from 448 runs at the track while the jockey is operating at 14% from 493 rides. Tending to make the running or race on the pace from the inside draw, he is sure to set a strong gallop in a race where that could prove costly late on. With an RPR of 84 and form figures of 983150, his course prowess cannot be ignored.
Equity Law KTB Fit 59/100
Equity Law has run to a fair standard on his day with an RPR of 85 and has solid course connections having won his only start here. He has won three times at this trip though his recent form has been patchy and he has only won twice on good ground from 12 starts. The yard and jockey both have established records at Catterick though neither is especially strong. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead from draw 7, he should be prominent as the strong pace unfolds. Dropping in class with form figures of -63360, his Catterick record gives him definite each-way claims.
The rest of the field
WinchurchKTB Fit 57/100
Winchurch is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick after a win and a close fourth on his last two starts. He drops back to 5f having won three times at the trip from 20 attempts though his recent efforts suggest he is just as effective at 6f. Trainer and jockey both have solid records here and he has won on good ground. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he will be right up there early but may find the strong pace a test from stall 6.
Le Beau GarconKTB Fit 51/100
Le Beau Garcon is a fair handicapper who has shown consistent placed form at Catterick without winning and has four wins at this trip from 25 runs. He has been competitive on good ground but his recent form is patchy and the yard's record here is poor. Jockey Joanna Mason has a solid course strike rate. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is the one horse likely to benefit if the strong pace collapses.
Arctic SummerKTB Fit 42/100
Arctic Summer is a fair performer on his best days but has been below form in four of his last five starts and looks vulnerable from stall 2. He has never won or placed in five runs at this trip and showed little on his one visit to Catterick. The yard and jockey both have modest records here. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he will be involved early in what is likely to be a strong pace.
KTB verdict
Lucius Aurelius looks the pick after his recent clear-cut Catterick success and now returns to a Class 5 where he holds the highest KTB Fit rating. His prominent run-style should see him track the strong pace to advantage, and the combination of the yard's record at the track and the 5lb claimer adds to his appeal. Isle Of Lismore and Equity Law, both with good Catterick form and dropping in class, head the list of dangers, while Glory Fighter's course record and front-running style mean he cannot be dismissed despite the stiff early test he is likely to set himself.
KTB Selection Lucius Aurelius
This is the narrative read of the 7:52 Catterick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Catterick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to set the early pace?
Glory Fighter tends to make the running or race on the pace and is the clearest front-runner in a race where a strong pace is likely.
How many of these runners have previously won at Catterick?
Lucius Aurelius, Isle Of Lismore, Glory Fighter and Equity Law have all won at the track.
Which runner is best suited to a strong pace according to the pace shape?
Le Beau Garcon, who is usually held up and produces his effort late, is the one most likely to benefit if the strong pace collapses.
Who has the strongest recent trainer and jockey combination at Catterick?
Kevin Ryan and Jack Nicholls show a 3/10 (30%) record with an A/E of 2.16 and +£10.75 LSP.
Which horse has the highest official rating figure in the race?
Isle Of Lismore has an RPR of 86, the highest in the field.
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