5:15 Newbury
This Class 4 White Horse International Handicap over 1m4f at Newbury features a field of eight three-year-olds on good to soft ground. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Mythical Bay, Impossible Mission and Kindly Queen all rated 55 or 56, while Hard To Believe sits just behind on 54. Recent form is generally progressive among the principals, though several runners remain unproven on the surface and at the trip, making this a competitive renewal where the supplied figures suggest little between the leading quartet.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners in the line-up. Mythical Bay, Hard To Believe and Cosmo Brown are all noted as tending to make the running or race prominently, while Kindly Queen and Honouramongthieves like to race handily. This setup is likely to test those on the speed and could lead to the race collapsing late, which would play into the hands of the hold-up performers such as Impossible Mission, Barrister and Glenna. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the race will fall into the lap of a patient rider.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Mythical Bay KTB Selection56/100Mythical Bay is a fair 3-year-old who has improved with each run this year and showed useful form when second on handicap debut at Chester over this trip.
- 2Impossible Mission55/100Fair performer who showed his best effort this year when third at Haydock over 1m2f three weeks ago.
- 3Kindly Queen55/100Kindly Queen is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent form, finishing placed on four of her five starts including when runner-up in first-time blinkers at…
- 4Hard To Believe54/100Hard To Believe shaped well when winning on good to soft at Bath and on AW at Wolverhampton before running no sort of race as favourite on his handicap debut at…
- 5Honouramongthieves44/100This fair 3 year old steps up in trip again having shown ordinary form in two Irish handicaps this spring.
- 6Barrister44/100Barrister shaped with promise when fourth on his only 2yo start at Kempton but has been well held in two runs this year behind useful types.
- 7Cosmo Brown43/100Cosmo Brown showed fair form when third in a first-time hood at Leicester last time having been well held on his first two starts.
- 8Glenna40/100Glenna has shown fair form without winning in five starts and ran creditably when fifth over 1m2f here four weeks ago.
The contenders
Mythical Bay KTB Fit 56/100
Mythical Bay is a fair three-year-old who has improved with each run this year and showed useful form when second on handicap debut at Chester over this trip. He failed to build on that when only third at Wolverhampton last time but the run was still respectable and his overall ratings place him firmly in the mix. The Balding stable posts an 11% strike rate at Newbury while Murphy is operating at 15%. He tends to make the running or race on the pace and is dropping in class here. His figures of RPR 89 and TS 79 compare favourably and he holds the KTB Selection tag with a Fit Score of 56.
Impossible Mission KTB Fit 55/100
Impossible Mission is a fair performer who showed his best effort this year when third at Haydock over 1m2f three weeks ago. That run suggested the step up to 1m4f is worth trying and he has solid recent form to his name. Trainer records an 8% strike rate from 36 runs at Newbury while jockey is 9% from 537 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he steps up in class but is proven on good to soft having been placed on his only start on the surface. With an RPR of 87 he enters calculations and carries a KTB Fit Score of 55.
Kindly Queen KTB Fit 55/100
Kindly Queen is a fair three-year-old who has shown consistent form, finishing placed on four of her five starts including when runner-up in first-time blinkers at Windsor last time. She steps up to 1m4f having already placed at the trip without winning and the yard’s 12% strike rate from 590 runs at Newbury is respectable while the jockey’s 11% from 81 rides here also holds up. The going remains an unknown with only five runs on the board. Usually racing prominently, she is stepping up in class with an RPR of 87 and a KTB Fit Score of 55.
Hard To Believe KTB Fit 54/100
Hard To Believe shaped well when winning on good to soft at Bath and on AW at Wolverhampton before running no sort of race as favourite on his handicap debut at York. He is a fair performer on the figures and has already won on this ground though he was well held in his only previous try at 1m4f. The Balding yard posts an 11% strike rate at Newbury from 914 runs while Crouch is 10% from 194 rides here. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, his RPR of 87 and KTB Fit Score of 54 keep him in the picture despite that York disappointment.
The rest of the field
HonouramongthievesKTB Fit 44/100
Honouramongthieves is a fair three-year-old who steps up in trip again having shown ordinary form in two Irish handicaps this spring. First-time headgear is now applied and the yard have a strong record with their British raids in recent seasons while Kieran Shoemark has a 9% strike rate from 282 rides at Newbury. His RPR of 85 and KTB Fit Score of 44 reflect more modest claims.
BarristerKTB Fit 44/100
Barrister shaped with promise when fourth on his only two-year-old start at Kempton but has been well held in two runs this year behind useful types. He steps up to 1m4f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him while his sole run here resulted in a midfield finish. The yard's 11% strike rate from 1190 runs at Newbury offers some encouragement on handicap debut though the jockey is operating at a 6% strike rate from 168 rides at the track. His KTB Fit Score is 44.
Cosmo BrownKTB Fit 43/100
Cosmo Brown showed fair form when third in a first-time hood at Leicester last time having been well held on his first two starts. He steps up to 1m4f for handicap debut which is a fresh question and his pedigree gives some hope he will see it out. The yard have a modest 5% strike rate at Newbury from 95 runs while Lewis Edmunds has a solid 9% record from 81 rides here. He carries a KTB Fit Score of 43.
GlennaKTB Fit 40/100
Glenna has shown fair form without winning in five starts and ran creditably when fifth over 1m2f here four weeks ago. She steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question while the yard's modest 3% strike rate from 93 runs at Newbury offers little encouragement. The jockey's 5% record from 41 rides at the track is equally limited and she needs to improve to get off the mark. Her KTB Fit Score stands at 40.
KTB verdict
Mythical Bay is the KTB Selection. A fair three-year-old who has improved with each run this year, he showed useful form when second on handicap debut at Chester over this trip and his overall ratings place him firmly in the mix despite a respectable but not progressive third at Wolverhampton last time. The Balding/Murphy combination at Newbury adds further appeal and his prominent run-style looks ideally suited to the anticipated strong pace. Main dangers are Impossible Mission, who suggested the longer trip would suit when third at Haydock, and the consistent Kindly Queen, who has been placed on four of five starts. Hard To Believe cannot be entirely dismissed on his earlier good-to-soft success but needs to bounce back from a poor York run.
KTB Selection Mythical Bay
This is the narrative read of the 5:15 Newbury. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newbury racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Mythical Bay, Hard To Believe and Cosmo Brown all tend to make the running or race on the pace, while Kindly Queen and Honouramongthieves usually race prominently.
Who is unproven on good to soft ground?
Mythical Bay, Kindly Queen, Honouramongthieves, Barrister, Cosmo Brown and Glenna have no runs on good to soft.
Which runners are making their handicap debut?
Barrister and Cosmo Brown are both handicap debutants.
Who has previous course form at Newbury?
Barrister finished seventh on his only start here and Glenna was fifth over 1m2f four weeks ago.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Honouramongthieves is fitted with first-time headgear.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies