5:18 York
This 20-runner Class 4 handicap over 1m2f56y at York on good ground looks a typically competitive affair for the grade. The KTB Fit scores are headed by Say What You See on 71, with a cluster of fair performers and modest types making up the remainder and no horse rated above 61 beyond the selection. Several runners step up in class while others drop in grade, and with many unproven or lightly raced at the track the race poses questions about both ability and suitability to York.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even tempo with a mix of prominent runners and those who race in mid-division or come from off the pace. Say What You See from stall 2 is likely to be handy early along with the likes of Glistening Nights drawn next door, while wide draws for several others including Dawn Of Liberation in 20 could see them forced to race wide or further back. The key question is whether the prominent group can dictate matters or if the race will be won from just off the pace, with the large field increasing the chance of traffic issues particularly from the higher stalls.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Say What You See KTB Selection71/100Fair performer who has won twice this year and arrives in decent form after a clear-cut success over 1m4f last time.
- 2Beach Point61/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning.
- 3Triple Force57/100Modest performer who has won twice this year but has looked below form on his last two starts.
- 4Glistening Nights56/100Glistening Nights is a fair handicapper who has shown consistent form of late with two placed efforts this year.
- 5Dawn Of Liberation53/100Modest performer who has won once from four runs at York and also has three wins from 18 starts at this trip.
- 6Narmar52/100Modest performer who has been out of form this season with two heavy defeats.
- 7Dovey Moon52/100Dovey Moon is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick after winning last time out.
- 8Northwest Passage52/100Fair performer who won over today's trip last season but has looked short of his best on both starts this year.
- 9Mao Shang Wong51/100Mao Shang Wong is a fair performer who has won three of his six starts at this trip and brings solid recent form including a win at Carlisle last month.
- 10Mafting51/100Mafting is a fair performer who has won twice at today's trip from six attempts and showed his best recent form when winning at this level in the spring.
- 11Poet's Dawn50/100Poet's Dawn is a modest 11-year-old with a long record of honest efforts but no win since last summer.
- 12Naples50/100Naples is a fair performer who has shown mixed results this year with a win and second on all-weather surfaces but has failed to build on that in three turf sta…
- 13Epictetus49/100Epictetus is a fair performer with solid recent consistency shown by his string of placed efforts.
- 14Titian48/100Titian is a modest performer with a solid record at this track where he has won twice from five runs.
- 15Harry The Rogue48/100Harry The Rogue is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and recent form that includes two placed efforts this season.
- 16Urban Road46/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough of late with form figures of 456235 and has won three times at today's trip from 21 attempts.
- 17Austrian Theory45/100Modest performer who has run nine times at York without winning or placing and arrives in ordinary form.
- 18Jez Bomb45/100Modest performer who has been running to form without winning lately and steps up in trip having won once over this distance in the past.
- 19Izzari40/100Izzari is a modest performer with a recent string of ordinary efforts that fit his overall profile.
- 20Queen Roslyn34/100Queen Roslyn is a modest performer who has won three times on the all-weather but has struggled on turf.
The contenders
Say What You See KTB Fit 71/100
Say What You See is a fair performer who has won twice this year and arrives in decent form after a clear-cut success over 1m4f last time. He drops back to a trip he has won over twice from six attempts and handles good ground. First-time headgear is now tried while both trainer and jockey have respectable strike rates at York. The trainer's 12% strike rate at the track from 25 runs with an A/E of 1.94 is a positive, as is the jockey's 8% from 112 rides with an A/E of 1.05. Drawn in stall 2 he should get a good early position and his recent form of 1D-3521 underlines his current competitiveness.
Beach Point KTB Fit 61/100
Beach Point is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning. He has a solid record on good ground and has won over today's trip though his recent efforts suggest he may be vulnerable to anything better. Trainer and jockey both have respectable strike rates at York, with the trainer on 12% from 57 runs at an A/E of 1.23 and the jockey on 14% from 22 rides at an A/E of 1.04. His form of 55-434 shows steady placed efforts and he acts on the going having won once from seven starts on good with four places. Stepping up in class adds a question but he should be thereabouts if the race falls his way.
Triple Force KTB Fit 57/100
Triple Force is a modest performer who has won twice this year but has looked below form on his last two starts. He has run just once at York and finished well beaten while his yard and jockey both operate at a 7% strike rate here. The trainer's record is 7% from 54 runs at an A/E of 1.31 and the jockey is 7% from 214 rides at an A/E of 0.9. He stays this trip well enough and handles good ground having won three times from ten starts on it with five places. His form of 118-04 reflects the recent dip but he remains capable at this level on his day.
Glistening Nights KTB Fit 56/100
Glistening Nights is a fair handicapper who has shown consistent form of late with two placed efforts this year. He has run eight times at York without winning or placing though the yard's record here is respectable at 8% from 13 runs. He has won five times at today's trip from 21 attempts and acts on good ground having scored twice from nine starts on it. The trainer and jockey combination shows 0/11 with an A/E of 0.00 on the card but the trainer's York figures offer some hope. Recent form of 390-32 is solid and from draw 3 he should be able to secure a good early spot.
Dawn Of Liberation KTB Fit 53/100
Dawn Of Liberation is a modest performer who has won once from four runs at York and also has three wins from 18 starts at this trip. Recent form of 7-0653 is ordinary and the wide draw in stall 20 adds difficulty on a track where both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates. The trainer is 7% at York from 135 runs at an A/E of 1.07 while the jockey is 8% from 38 rides at an A/E of 1.11. He has four wins from 22 runs on good ground which shows he handles the conditions and his course win is a plus in a big field.
The rest of the field
NarmarKTB Fit 52/100
Narmar is a modest performer who has been out of form this season with two heavy defeats. He steps up in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance before and acts on good ground. First run at York for a trainer with a solid recent record here though the jockey’s strike rate is modest.
Dovey MoonKTB Fit 52/100
Dovey Moon is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick after winning last time out. He has won all four starts on good ground and his recent form suggests he is competitive at this level. The step up in trip is an unknown and both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates at York.
Northwest PassageKTB Fit 52/100
Northwest Passage is a fair performer who won over today's trip last season but has looked short of his best on both starts this year. He steps up in distance having last run over 1m1f, which asks a fresh question, while he has placed once from three runs on good ground without winning. First run at York for a trainer with a 5% strike rate here and a jockey operating at 4% from 235 rides.
Mao Shang WongKTB Fit 51/100
Mao Shang Wong is a fair performer who has won three of his six starts at this trip and brings solid recent form including a win at Carlisle last month. He has only run once on good ground without placing which leaves a slight question mark there while the wide draw in stall 14 is far from ideal at York. The yard's modest 7% strike rate here is offset by Tudhope's stronger 10% record from a large sample of rides.
MaftingKTB Fit 51/100
Mafting is a fair performer who has won twice at today's trip from six attempts and showed his best recent form when winning at this level in the spring. He has only run once at York and finished ninth while his trainer's modest 7% strike rate from a huge sample here suggests the yard struggles to strike at this track. James Doyle's 14% strike rate at York is more positive but this draw in stall 16 will make things tougher on good ground where he has been competitive but winless from six starts.
Poet's DawnKTB Fit 50/100
Poet's Dawn is a modest 11-year-old with a long record of honest efforts but no win since last summer. He has shown up in the frame twice from five runs at York without winning and steps up in trip today having won at this distance in the past. The yard's modest 6% strike rate at the track is offset by the jockey's solid 9% record here from limited rides.
NaplesKTB Fit 50/100
Naples is a fair performer who has shown mixed results this year with a win and second on all-weather surfaces but has failed to build on that in three turf starts. Drawn wide in stall 13 at a track where his trainer has failed to land a blow from 14 attempts he faces a stiff task from an exposed position. The jockey's solid 12% strike rate from over 200 York rides offers some hope but the horse has failed to trouble the judge in both previous attempts at this trip.
EpictetusKTB Fit 49/100
Epictetus is a fair performer with solid recent consistency shown by his string of placed efforts. He has won over today's trip in the past but steps back up in distance having been racing over shorter lately while his record on good ground is only modest. The yard has an 8% strike rate at York from 92 runs and the jockey is still seeking his first winner here from ten rides.
TitianKTB Fit 48/100
Titian is a modest performer with a solid record at this track where he has won twice from five runs. He has also won at today's trip and on good ground though his recent form is ordinary and he is drawn wide in stall 19. The trainer has a 6% strike rate from 140 runs here while the jockey is operating at 3% from 33 rides.
Harry The RogueKTB Fit 48/100
Harry The Rogue is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and recent form that includes two placed efforts this season. He steps up markedly in trip from 7f to 1m2f having been placed once at the distance and his good-ground record shows a win plus six places from 13 starts. The wide draw in stall 12 is a negative at York where both his sole previous run and the jockey’s 4% strike rate from 618 rides have been modest.
Urban RoadKTB Fit 46/100
Urban Road is a modest performer who has been consistent enough of late with form figures of 456235 and has won three times at today's trip from 21 attempts. He drops back in distance having last run over 1m3f while the good ground should be fine having been placed once from three starts on it. Trainer is still seeking a first York winner from 37 attempts but Silvestre De Sousa has a solid 10% strike rate at the track from over 500 rides.
Austrian TheoryKTB Fit 45/100
Austrian Theory is a modest performer who has run nine times at York without winning or placing and arrives in ordinary form. He has won over today's trip but is 0-15 on good ground and now tries headgear for the first time from a wide draw. Trainer and jockey both have below-average strike rates at the track.
Jez BombKTB Fit 45/100
Jez Bomb is a modest performer who has been running to form without winning lately and steps up in trip having won once over this distance in the past. York record is poor and the yard is still searching for its first winner here from 21 attempts. Jockey has a modest strike rate at the track while the horse has been well beaten on its only previous run at this venue.
IzzariKTB Fit 40/100
Izzari is a modest performer with a recent string of ordinary efforts that fit his overall profile. He drops back in trip having won at this distance before and has handled good ground in the past though the yard and jockey both have poor strike rates at York. First run here adds an unknown element but the overall form leaves him with plenty to find.
Queen RoslynKTB Fit 34/100
Queen Roslyn is a modest performer who has won three times on the all-weather but has struggled on turf. She finished fifth of 13 here last season before a poor run on her final start, and she drops back sharply in trip from 2m4f having failed to make an impact at this distance on her only previous attempt. The yard's modest record at York and the jockey's low strike-rate add little encouragement.
KTB verdict
Say What You See stands out as the KTB Selection. A fair performer in decent nick after a recent clear-cut success, he drops to a trip he has won over twice before, handles good ground and now tries first-time headgear from a handy draw. The trainer and jockey both bring respectable York records that add to his claims. Main dangers include the consistent Beach Point who has a good record on the going and at the trip, while Glistening Nights and Dawn Of Liberation bring placed form and course knowledge respectively. Mao Shang Wong and Mafting are others with recent wins who cannot be ruled out in a race where traffic and draw could play a significant part.
KTB Selection Say What You See
This is the narrative read of the 5:18 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and what is it?
Say What You See has the highest KTB Fit Score on 71/100.
How many times has Say What You See won at today's trip?
Say What You See has won twice at today's trip from six attempts.
What is the course record of the top-rated horse at York?
Say What You See has no course form on record.
Which runner has won twice at York and what is its recent form?
Titian has won twice at York from five runs and its recent form is 5006-6.
How many wins has Dawn Of Liberation had at York and on good ground?
Dawn Of Liberation has won once from four runs at York and has four wins from 22 runs on good ground.
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