4:45 York
This Class 4 handicap over the minimum trip at York brings together 15 three-year-olds on good ground, with the majority unproven at the track. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Straight Ahead on 60, followed by Ambishio and Schrodinger's Cat both on 56, indicating a competitive field where recent form, draw and yard records at York will be key. Straight Ahead arrives with the highest rating after a solid effort at Doncaster, but several others have shown placed form or recent wins that keep the race open.
How the race shapes up
With a field of 15 and several runners likely to show early speed, the pace shape is expected to be on the strong side, which should suit those who can race prominently or in the first half of the field. Straight Ahead from stall 9, Schrodinger's Cat from the inside draw and Vinciamo are among those who can take a forward position, while wide-drawn horses such as Ambishio in 11, Adalida in 14 and Angel Numbers in 15 will need to find a comfortable slot or risk being caught out. The key question is whether the leaders can get away with it on good ground or if the race will fall to something that can come from just off the pace and pick up the pieces late.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Straight Ahead KTB Selection60/100Modest performer who has won twice at this trip from six attempts and showed his best form when finishing fourth of 11 at Doncaster last time.
- 2Ambishio56/100Fair performer who has won once over this trip from nine attempts but has not shown much spark in two runs since a narrow defeat at Doncaster in May.
- 3Schrodinger's Cat56/100Schrodinger's Cat is a fair 3-year-old with solid placed form this year but has looked a shade below his best on his last two starts.
- 4Adalida52/100Adalida is a modest performer who has been up and down this year with a latest win over this trip on good ground.
- 5Angel Numbers50/100Fair performer who has run to a similar level on his last four starts without winning.
- 6Simba's Pride49/100Modest performer who has been in and out lately with form figures of 57121.
- 7Empress Olivia48/100Modest performer who has run creditably without winning at this trip on three starts.
- 8Rotokura Belle47/100Modest performer who has won twice in 13 starts including at this trip.
- 9Bravo Hotel47/100Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning in five starts.
- 10Forest Phoenix47/100Modest performer who showed little in his first three starts before winning a weak 5f maiden last time.
- 11Houndhill46/100Modest performer who has shown mixed form this year and arrives off a career-best win at this trip last time.
- 12Vinciamo44/100Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning.
- 13Yellow Diamonds43/100Modest performer who has won once over this trip from seven starts.
- 14Under The Radar39/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in two runs this season and was well held when fifth over this course and trip on his only previous visit to York.
- 15I'm Dan Dare39/100Modest performer who showed improved form when winning a 5f handicap last time.
The contenders
Straight Ahead KTB Fit 60/100
Straight Ahead is a modest performer who has won twice at this trip from six attempts and showed his best form when finishing fourth of 11 at Doncaster last time. He has placed once from four starts on good ground but lacks a York run and his yard's 7% strike rate from 54 runs here is modest. Jockey Sam James also operates at a 7% strike rate from 214 rides at the track. The three-year-old has recent form figures of 2011-4 and is drawn in stall 9, where his ability to race prominently should be an asset in what looks a strongly-run race. While no course form exists, his two victories over five furlongs mark him out as having the requisite speed, and the KTB Fit rating of 60 underlines his position at the head of the ratings.
Ambishio KTB Fit 56/100
Ambishio is a fair performer who has won once over this trip from nine attempts but has not shown much spark in two runs since a narrow defeat at Doncaster in May. Drawn wide here in stall 11 and the yard's modest 5% strike-rate at York offers little encouragement, although jockey Ray Dawson has a strong 20% record at the track from a smallish sample of 35 rides. His recent form reads -12480 and he has yet to win or place from five runs on good ground. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 19/155 record with an A/E of 1.04, but the wide draw and lack of recent spark suggest he will need to bounce back to figure prominently.
Schrodinger's Cat KTB Fit 56/100
Schrodinger's Cat is a fair 3-year-old with solid placed form this year but has looked a shade below his best on his last two starts. He has run just once at York and was well held, while the trainer's 8% strike rate from 111 runs here is only average and the jockey's 3% from 36 rides is below expectations. He has won over this trip on good ground but his overall record at the distance reads just 1-9. Dropping in class from recent efforts, his form figures of 21-228 show consistency at a lower level, and from draw 1 he is ideally placed to race prominently in a race with plenty of pace. The KTB Fit score of 56 keeps him firmly in the mix.
Adalida KTB Fit 52/100
Adalida is a modest performer who has been up and down this year with a latest win over this trip on good ground. She has the benefit of a solid 14% strike-rate from the jockey at York though the trainer's record here is ordinary. First run at the track and drawn wide in stall 14 adds uncertainty. Her recent form of 425471 includes that most recent success, and she boasts a going record of one win and three places from four starts on good. Stepping up in class, the Marco Ghiani partnership with a 122/829 record may help her cause, but the wide draw in a race likely to be strongly run poses a clear challenge.
Angel Numbers KTB Fit 50/100
Angel Numbers is a fair performer who has run to a similar level on his last four starts without winning. He has the speed for this trip and has won on good ground but the wide draw in stall 15 will not help on a track where the trainer has yet to strike in 12 attempts. Jockey Clifford Lee has a solid record here with a 12% strike rate from 204 rides and that is the main positive. Recent form reads 3-2527, showing consistency but no breakthrough, and his KTB Fit of 50 reflects a reliable but not sparkling profile. The combination of wide draw and yard record at York makes this a stiff assignment despite his trip suitability.
The rest of the field
Simba's PrideKTB Fit 49/100
Simba's Pride is a modest performer who has been in and out lately with form figures of -57121. Drops back to 5f today having been well held over 6f last time though he has already shown he handles this trip. Trainer and jockey both have solid 10% strike rates at York while the good ground looks in his favour. Stepping up in class from stall 12.
Empress OliviaKTB Fit 48/100
Empress Olivia is a modest performer who has run creditably without winning at this trip on three starts. Drops back from 6f with first-time headgear and has form on good ground including a win. Trainer's modest 5% strike rate at York is offset by the jockey's stronger 8% record here though this is the filly's first run at the track. Recent form 6-2104 from stall 13.
Rotokura BelleKTB Fit 47/100
Rotokura Belle is a modest performer who has won twice in 13 starts including at this trip. She has shown some consistency on good ground with a win and two places from four runs but her recent form has been patchy. First time at York for both horse and trainer who has a modest 5% strike rate here while de Sousa is more established with a 10% record from over 500 rides. Form reads -56164 from draw 8.
Bravo HotelKTB Fit 47/100
Bravo Hotel is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning in five starts. Finished third on his sole visit to York and has been placed twice at today's distance. The Easterby yard has a modest 5% strike rate here while Garritty's 8% rate is closer to expectations. Form of 33533- from stall 4.
Forest PhoenixKTB Fit 47/100
Forest Phoenix is a modest performer who showed little in his first three starts before winning a weak 5f maiden last time. Stall 7 looks about okay but the yard's modest record here and low strike rates for both trainer and jockey suggest he will need to improve to take this. Trip suits and the recent win adds some confidence but this looks a stiffer task. Form 5881.
HoundhillKTB Fit 46/100
Houndhill is a modest performer who has shown mixed form this year and arrives off a career-best win at this trip last time. First run at York and only one previous start on good ground both add an element of uncertainty. Trainer and jockey have modest records at the track. Recent form 32-681 from draw 6.
VinciamoKTB Fit 44/100
Vinciamo is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning. Stall five looks fine and the York course connections are solid enough on paper yet the trainer's 8% strike rate and the jockey's 4% both sit below par for the track. Lightly raced with only four runs total so the going remains an unknown. Form 3-362.
Yellow DiamondsKTB Fit 43/100
Yellow Diamonds is a modest performer who has won once over this trip from seven starts. Recent form of 321-04 shows ability but also inconsistency and she was well held on her latest outing. Trainer has a 6% strike rate from 140 runs at York while jockey is 3% from 33 rides here. Drawn in stall 10.
Under The RadarKTB Fit 39/100
Under The Radar is a modest performer who has shown little spark in two runs this season and was well held when fifth over this course and trip on his only previous visit to York. He has won on good ground and at this trip but the yard's modest record here and the jockey's poor strike-rate add to the negatives. Connections will need to see significant improvement to get competitive in this field. Form 928-56 from draw 2.
I'm Dan DareKTB Fit 39/100
I'm Dan Dare is a modest performer who showed improved form when winning a 5f handicap last time. Stall 3 looks fine and the recent win came at today's trip but he has only run seven times in total so there could be more to come. Trainer has a modest 5% strike rate at York from 64 runs while the jockey is still seeking his first winner here from seven rides. Form 5-0251.
KTB verdict
Straight Ahead tops the KTB Fit ratings and has the most persuasive recent effort with his fourth at Doncaster, allied to proven speed at this trip. His ability to race handily from a middle draw should serve him well if the race develops with the expected strong pace. The main dangers are Schrodinger's Cat, who drops in class from a perfect draw and has shown placed form this season, and Adalida, who brings a recent win on good ground and a good York jockey booking despite the wide stall. Ambishio and Angel Numbers are next in the ratings but both face wide draws that could prove costly.
KTB Selection Straight Ahead
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and is the selection?
Straight Ahead with a KTB Fit of 60/100 is the selection.
How many wins has Straight Ahead recorded at 5f?
Straight Ahead has won twice at this trip from six attempts.
What is Schrodinger's Cat's record at York?
Schrodinger's Cat has run just once at York and was well held with no win or place.
Which runners are stepping up in class?
Adalida, Simba's Pride, Empress Olivia, Rotokura Belle, Bravo Hotel, Houndhill and I'm Dan Dare are all stepping up in class.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Empress Olivia is wearing first-time headgear.
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