Carlisle Bay (IRE)
Carlisle Bay (IRE) is 1 from 5. Hasn't won since Oct 2020.
- 1–5Wins / Runs
- 20%Strike rate
- 2 (40%)Placed
- +3.00£1 level staken=5 at SP
- 1.73Fair A/E n=5 · 1.47 incl. margin
- 101Highest OR
- 28dBetween runs (median)longest 196 d
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 100
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 4 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft | 3 | 100C | 99 | — |
| Good | 1 | — | — | — |
| Heavy | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 4 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 2 | 99C | 98.5 | — |
| 1m – 1m1f | 2 | 100A | 100 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 1 | — | — | — |
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 5 figures from 5 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style is derived from in-running commentary, which our data provider does not supply for this horse's races.
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 14.5% of 18,200 runs since Jan 2008 (1,776 horses).
Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.2% from 1,383. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.4% from 890.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 72 | 14 | 19.4% | +4.9 | — |
| Good to Firm | 2,766 | 442 | 16% | +1.5 | — |
| Good | 5,308 | 790 | 14.9% | +0.4 | 0 from 1 |
| Good to Soft | 2,346 | 329 | 14% | −0.5 | — |
| Soft | 3,845 | 576 | 15% | +0.5 | 1 from 3 |
| Heavy | 1,378 | 190 | 13.8% | −0.7 | 0 from 1 |
| Standard (AW) | 2,484 | 304 | 12.2% | −2.3 | — |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | −7.4 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 1,383 | 252 | 18.2% | +3.7 | — |
| 1m – 1m1f | 3,021 | 517 | 17.1% | +2.6 | 1 from 2 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 6,850 | 1,051 | 15.3% | +0.8 | 0 from 1 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 4,241 | 555 | 13.1% | −1.4 | 0 from 2 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 1,651 | 170 | 10.3% | −4.2 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 890 | 84 | 9.4% | −5.1 | — |
| Over 3m | 150 | 16 | 10.7% | −3.8 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 4 Nov 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
No other produce in our archive. It holds racing in Great Britain, Ireland and France from 2005, so siblings racing elsewhere won’t appear here.
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft | 3 | 1 | 33% | +5.00 |
| Good | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Heavy | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curragh | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Lingfield | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Leopardstown | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Tipperary | 1 | 1 | 100% | +7.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 2 | 1 | 50% | +6.00 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmet McNamara | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Wayne Lordan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Frankie Dettori | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Seamie Heffernan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Michael Hussey | 1 | 1 | 100% | +7.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheekpieces | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| None | 2 | 1 | 50% | +6.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| 2020 | 2 | 1 | 50% | +6.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 · 3 runs | ||||||||||
| 10 Oct 21+28d | Curragh | Paddy Power Irish Cesarewitch (Extended Handicap) | 15/30 | hd | 9-7 | 100 | 99C | 81A | Emmet McNamara | 50/1 |
| 12 Sep 21+127d | Curragh | Comer Group International Irish St. Leger (Group 1) | 7/13 | 9 | 9-2 | 101 | 98C | 71C | Wayne Lordan | 80/1 |
| 08 May 21+196d | Lingfield | Novibet Derby Trial Stakes (Listed) | 6/6 | 24 | 9-0 | 101 | 51C | 76C | Frankie Dettori | 7/1 |
| 2020 · 2 runs | ||||||||||
| 24 Oct 20+21d | Leopardstown | Eyrefield Stakes (Group 3) | 3/9 | ¾ | 9-5 | — | 100A | 93A | Seamie Heffernan | 6/4F |
| 03 Oct 20 | Tipperary | Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden (Plus 10) | 1/14 | 9-7 | — | 100C | 91A | Michael Hussey | 7/1 | |
Quick answers
- How many races has Carlisle Bay won?
- Carlisle Bay (IRE) won 1 of 5 archived starts between 2020 and 2021, a strike rate of 20%. Placed 2 times in total (40% of starts).
- Who trained Carlisle Bay?
- Carlisle Bay (IRE) was trained by A P O'Brien on the most recent run on record, at Curragh on 10 October 2021.
- Who is Carlisle Bay's sire?
- Carlisle Bay (IRE) is by Galileo (IRE) out of Toogoodtobetrue (IRE), whose sire is Oasis Dream.
- What going does Carlisle Bay prefer?
- Carlisle Bay (IRE) has the best record on soft going: 1 win from 3 starts (33.3%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Carlisle Bay's official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 100, from the run on 10 October 2021. The highest on record is 101.
- What is Carlisle Bay's sire's record?
- Galileo (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 14.5% of 18,200 runs since Jan 2008 (1,776 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.2% from 1,383. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.4% from 890.