What is Seamie Heffernan's strike rate?

Seamie Heffernan has won 196 of 2,419 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.1% (as at 15 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Seamie Heffernan do best at?

Fairyhouse by strike rate: 9 wins from 59 rides (15.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Seamie Heffernan ride most for?

A P O'Brien, with 313 rides since 2022 — 13% of the total. That pairing has won 63 (20.1%).

Is Seamie Heffernan in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 7 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Seamie Heffernan's Fair A/E?

0.98, from 2,414 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Seamie Heffernan

2,419 rides in the last 5 seasons · 1,306 individual horses

As at 15 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 9 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

196–2,419

Wins / Runs

8.1%

Strike rate

n=2,419

593 (25%)

Placed

0.98

Fair A/E

n=2,414 · 0.80 incl. margin

−761.07

£1 level stake

n=2,419 at SP · −31.5%

£5.30m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 480 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.98). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 15% (166 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,419 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 15 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Oct–Dec 39.1% when favourite A P O'Brien: 20.1% from 313 LTO winners: 15.1% Rides the favourite in 6% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Navan (14.7%, n=129) and Fairyhouse (15.3%, n=59) — all clear of the rider's 8.1% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 15.1% (n=166, Fair A/E 1.11). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 5.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.82 and −206.37 to a £1 stake over 454 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. A P O'Brien supplies 13% of the rides and beats the rider's average (20.1% vs 8.1%, A/E 1.10) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 189 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Investec Derby Stakes at Epsom Downs (Jun 2019, £921,538). The standout partner of the record: Kaitlins Joy (IRE) — 5 wins from 12 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Oct–Dec.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.1% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

7.5%−0.6

n=1,236 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −258.59

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

15.1%+7.0

n=166 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −40.26

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

5.9%−2.2

n=454 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −206.37

When favourite

39.1%

n=156 · A/E 1.22 · £1 −2.04

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.9%−2.2

n=1,093 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −349.91

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

9%+0.9

n=268 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −81.34

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With A P O'Brien 20.1% vs 8.1% · n=313

With M D O'Callaghan 21.9% vs 8.1% · n=32

On last-time-out winners 15.1% vs 8.1% · n=166

With J A Stack 15% vs 8.1% · n=153

At Navan 14.7% vs 8.1% · n=129

At Fairyhouse 15.3% vs 8.1% · n=59

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 773 49 6.3% −195.02

Soft 663 52 7.8% −304.37

Standard (AW) 483 47 9.7% −152.72

Heavy 226 30 13.3% +7.55

Good to Soft 204 11 5.4% −130.89

Good to Firm 70 7 10% +14.38

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk (AW) 472 45 9.5% −157.47

Curragh 394 24 6.1% −248.82

Leopardstown 238 19 8% −84.26

Gowran Park 176 11 6.3% −38.37

Naas 164 13 7.9% −85.89

Cork 158 13 8.2% −86.62

Navan 129 19 14.7% −7.51

Galway 100 10 10% +35.88

Roscommon 81 2 2.5% −71.67

Killarney 76 5 6.6% −40.00

Bellewstown 67 4 6% −24.00

Tipperary 67 7 10.4% −19.67

Limerick 65 5 7.7% −52.12

Fairyhouse 59 9 15.3% +167.08

Listowel 32 2 6.3% −22.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 268 24 9% −81.34

Class 2 15 1 6.7% +14.00

Class 4 3 0 0% −3.00

Class 3 1 0 0% −1.00

Class 6 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 190 67 35.3% 1.19 −11.54

2nd–3rd fav 402 57 14.2% 0.87 −139.53

4th–6th fav 648 50 7.7% 1.05 −79.00

7th+ in betting 1,179 22 1.9% 0.71 −531.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Leabaland (IRE) 12 1 3 10 Jul 25

Reverberation (GB) 12 0 4 22 Jun 23

Bay Colony (IRE) 10 1 3 11 Oct 26

Bodhi Bear (IRE) 10 4 6 28 Jun 26

Lucky Out (IRE) 10 1 3 9 Sep 25

Firm Belief (IRE) 10 1 2 25 Jul 24

Prettiest (USA) 10 0 1 8 Oct 22

Mercurial (IRE) 9 0 5 22 Sep 26

Billboa (GB) 9 2 4 13 Feb 26

Circles (IRE) 9 2 4 19 Sep 25

Just Before (USA) 9 1 4 2 Jul 25

Karlsberg (IRE) 9 1 2 14 Oct 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,306 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

2 from 7

Only 7 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

4107866797111413

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardA P O'Brien

13% of all rides
20.1% SR · A/E 1.10

TrainerRWSR£1

A P O'Brien 313 63 20.1% −44.79

J A Stack 153 23 15% −12.47

Kevin Thomas Coleman 89 7 7.9% −24.96

J P Murtagh 73 2 2.7% −58.50

W P Browne 73 9 12.3% −30.47

Miss Natalia Lupini 67 5 7.5% −17.37

Denis Gerard Hogan 63 1 1.6% −50.00

Adrian Murray 54 6 11.1% +180.25

J J Lambe 42 2 4.8% −14.00

Shane Crawley 37 2 5.4% −18.00

A J Martin 35 4 11.4% −16.00

Gerard Keane 34 2 5.9% −21.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

940

Archived wins

189

Pattern / graded wins

£40.7m

Prize money

2007

Best season · 77 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Anthony Van Dyck (IRE) — Investec Derby Stakes (Group 1) Epsom Downs · Jun 2019 · Group 1

£921,538

Capri (IRE) — Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) Curragh · Jul 2017 · Group 1

£855,000

Soldier of Fortune (IRE) — Budweiser Irish Derby (group 1) Curragh · Jul 2007 · Group 1

£847,500

Notable horses

Kaitlins Joy (IRE) No Trouble (IRE) Bodhi Bear (IRE) Tartlette (GB) Bondi Beach (IRE) Homegrown (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Galileo (IRE) 18.6% · 21–113

Progeny have won 14.5% of 18,203 runs since 2008 (1,776 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.2% from 1,383. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.4% from 890.

Starspangledbanner (AUS) 16.4% · 12–73

Progeny have won 11.1% of 7,227 runs since 2014 (658 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.6% from 1,200.

No Nay Never (USA) 18.5% · 12–65

Progeny have won 12.1% of 6,380 runs since 2018 (708 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 9.1% from 618. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.5% from 187.

Justify (USA) 24.4% · 10–41

Progeny have won 17.9% of 537 runs since 2022 (97 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 23.3% from 150. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 14.3% from 168.

Dubawi (IRE) 14.3% · 5–35

Progeny have won 18.4% of 12,996 runs since 2009 (1,531 horses). Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 9.8% from 429.

Churchill (IRE) 5.9% · 2–34

Progeny have won 11% of 4,855 runs since 2021 (460 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 10,304 · newest first

The latest 50 of 10,304 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 9 January 2005 to 6 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Sayonara (IRE)T: A. Slattery BAR 1 Betting Bet Builder Boost Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 25/1

06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Muscogee Nation (CAN)T: M D O'Callaghan Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden8f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 12/1

06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Grande Cuvee (IRE)T: J A Stack BAR 1 Betting 'Your First For Football' Maiden5f · Standard · 5 ran 1st 1/3F

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Zitkala Sa (IRE)T: E Sheehy Now Racing Every Wednesday At Dundalk Handicap10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 50/1

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Whistling Jamesie (GB)T: Miss Natalia Lupini Book Your Christmas Party At Dundalk Stadium Handicap7f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 8/1

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Fiery Anne (IRE)T: Jordan Kidd Bet On The Best Night Out At Dundalk Stadium Nursery Handicap7f · Standard · 7 ran 7th 33/1

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) James Anthony (IRE)T: Donal Commins Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Median Auction Maiden6f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 100/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) The Austrian (IRE)T: Mrs J. Harrington QuinnBet Finale Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 12f · Yielding · 12 ran 4th 4/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Ribee (IRE)T: Michael Mulvany Keadeen Hotel Premier Handicap8f · Yielding To Soft · 21 ran 5th 20/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Galileo Dame (IRE)T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien QuinnBet Loughbrown Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 16.5f · Yielding · 11 ran 3rd 22/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Stable Lane (IRE)T: Rodger Sweeney Isuzu Ireland Handicap7f · Yielding To Soft · 25 ran 25th 80/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Storm Ready (IRE)T: Mrs J. Harrington Ryans Cleaning Race7f · Yielding To Soft · 9 ran 6th 12/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Thunder Bay (GB)T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Yielding To Soft · 23 ran 7th 20/1

30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Flame Of Forest (IRE)T: Miss Natalia Lupini Happy Halloween Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 14/1

30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Riyazanka (IRE)T: J. P. Murtagh Book Online At DundalkStadium.com Maiden8f · Standard · 14 ran 3rd 11/2

30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Scolyer (USA)T: Miss Natalia Lupini Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden5f · Standard · 13 ran 2nd 33/1

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Shorten The Winter (IRE)T: M D O'Callaghan Premiere Weekend Two-Day Ticket Just €35 Maiden7f · Yielding · 11 ran 9th 66/1

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Maxims Of Equity (IRE)T: M D O'Callaghan Win A Trip To Lapland At Punchestown On Sun 22 November Maiden7f · Yielding · 11 ran 6th 200/1

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Looking For Love (IRE)T: J. P. Murtagh Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden8f · Yielding · 8 ran 8th 11/1

28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Rayastar (IRE)T: P J F Murphy Irish Stallion Farms EBF Auction Maiden6f · Standard · 13 ran 4th 15/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 5 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 2) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 1) · fastest on KTB Speed in 6 runs (won 2) · to 6 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Seamie Heffernan's strike rate?: Seamie Heffernan has won 196 of 2,419 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.1% (as at 15 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Seamie Heffernan do best at?: Fairyhouse by strike rate: 9 wins from 59 rides (15.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Seamie Heffernan ride most for?: A P O'Brien, with 313 rides since 2022 — 13% of the total. That pairing has won 63 (20.1%).
Is Seamie Heffernan in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 7 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Seamie Heffernan's Fair A/E?: 0.98, from 2,414 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.