Elsa Bay (IRE)
Elsa Bay is a Shantou mare out of an Esee mare who is yet to win from five starts on turf. She showed her best effort when finishing fourth of nine at Tipperary in May 2024. All four subsequent runs have seen her unplaced including her last run at Fairyhouse in Dec 2025. She has raced three times at Fairyhouse, once at Sligo and once at Tipperary.
- 0–5Wins / Runs
- 0%Strike rate
- 0 (0%)Placed
- −5.00£1 level staken=5 at SP
- 0.00Fair A/E n=5 · 0.00 incl. margin
- 146dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 100
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 25 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft | 2 | 100A | 94.5 | — |
| Heavy | 1 | — | — | 1 run · — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 25 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 3 | 100A | 98 | 1 run · — |
Of 5 runs looked at, 2 have no figure: did not complete (2).
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 3 figures from 5 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 4 analysed runs since Oct 2025
- Mid-division 2 (50%) · 0 wins
- Held up 1 (25%) · 0 wins
- Prominent 1 (25%) · 0 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 13.6% of 7,822 runs since Jan 2008 (539 horses).
Strongest on good to firm going: 20.3% from 158.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 2 | 1 | 50% | +36.4 | — |
| Good to Firm | 158 | 32 | 20.3% | +6.7 | — |
| Good | 2,288 | 311 | 13.6% | 0 | — |
| Good to Soft | 1,430 | 176 | 12.3% | −1.3 | 0 from 1 |
| Soft | 2,610 | 363 | 13.9% | +0.3 | 0 from 3 |
| Heavy | 1,283 | 178 | 13.9% | +0.3 | 0 from 1 |
| Standard (AW) | 51 | 5 | 9.8% | −3.8 | — |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 3 | 0 | 0% | −13.6 | — |
| 1m – 1m1f | 11 | 0 | 0% | −13.6 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 62 | 6 | 9.7% | −3.9 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 2,030 | 276 | 13.6% | 0 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 2,709 | 378 | 14% | +0.4 | 0 from 4 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 2,339 | 334 | 14.3% | +0.7 | 0 from 1 |
| Over 3m | 668 | 72 | 10.8% | −2.8 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 24 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
1 sibling in the archive, 0 winners.
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monte Alban (IRE) | 7 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Heavy | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Good to Soft | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairyhouse | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Sligo | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Tipperary | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Treacy | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Mr P W Gleeson | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Niall Moore | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Mr B O'Neill | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| 2024 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Type | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurdle | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| NH Flat | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · 4 runs | |||||||||
| 13 Dec 25+22d | Fairyhouse | Fairyhouse Christmas Party Maiden Hurdle Settled towards the back of the pack - error at 7th - driven but couldn't find more approaching 3 out - dropped away and pulled up before the following fence | PU/11 | — | 10-11 | — | — | Ryan Treacy | 125/1 |
| 21 Nov 25+28d | Fairyhouse | Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com Mares Maiden Hurdle Held a midfield berth early - 7th approaching 3 out and driven to chase on - unable to close in the closing stages | 7/16 | 2 | 10-13 | 98B | 107A | Ryan Treacy | 80/1 |
| 24 Oct 25+13d | Sligo | John Thomas McNamara Series (Q.R.) Maiden Hurdle Settled just behind the front-runner early - shared the advantage by the 3rd - moved clear from the 5th - equipment shifted and lost the advantage by the 7th before being swiftly withdrawn from the contest | PU/9 | — | 10-9 | — | — | Mr P W Gleeson | 7/1 |
| 11 Oct 25+520d | Fairyhouse | Adare Manor Opportunity Mares Maiden Hurdle Midfield early - error at the 1st - moved to 4th by halfway - ridden after the 7th - blundered 4 out then again at 3 out and 2 out - one-paced run-in - well held in 5th | 5/10 | 4 | 10-11 | 100A | 98A | Niall Moore | 66/1 |
| 2024 · 1 run | |||||||||
| 09 May 24 | Tipperary | Millennium Surveys Ltd Mares Point-To-Point Flat Race | 4/9 | 5 | 11-11 | 89A | 109A | Mr B O'Neill | 11/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Elsa Bay won?
- Elsa Bay (IRE) has yet to win, from 5 archived starts between 2024 and 2025.
- Who trains Elsa Bay?
- Elsa Bay (IRE) is trained by William P Murphy, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 13 December 2025.
- Who is Elsa Bay's sire?
- Elsa Bay (IRE) is by Shantou (USA) out of Esee (IRE), whose sire is Lawman.
- What is Elsa Bay's sire's record?
- Shantou (USA)'s progeny in our archive have won 13.6% of 7,822 runs since Jan 2008 (539 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest on good to firm going: 20.3% from 158.
- Who are Elsa Bay's siblings?
- Out of Esee (IRE), Elsa Bay (IRE) has 1 other produce in our archive, 0 of them winners. As at Oct 2026.