Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Rider Profile
Rides around 30 times a season, winning on 12% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.83).
Deterministic profile computed from 160 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 5 Nov 2026
The read
Rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 4% (n=50, Fair A/E 0.50). The rider also reads well over 2m5f – 3m (31.4%, n=35) and in Chase races (20.3%, n=74). The record reads poorly over 2m1f – 2m4f — 2.7% over 37 rides, 9.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in NH Flat races: Fair A/E 0.34 across 57 rides (3.5% strike, −34.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Paddy Power Cheltenham Countdown Podcast I.N.H. Flat Race at Leopardstown (Feb 2026, £59,000). The standout partner of the record: Askanna (IRE) — 6 wins from 11 rides together.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 11.9% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
10.6%−1.3
n=104 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −40.90
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
23.1%+11.2
n=26 · A/E 1.00 · £1 +5.98
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
11.4%−0.5
n=44 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −7.50
When favourite
30.8%
n=26 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −9.93
Big fields · 14+ runners
4%−7.9
n=50 · A/E 0.50 · £1 −39.88
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
5.6%−6.3
n=18 · A/E 0.69 · £1 +1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 2m5f – 3m31.4% vs 11.9% · n=35
With D M Christie25.5% vs 11.9% · n=47
In Chase races20.3% vs 11.9% · n=74
In NH Flat races3.5% vs 11.9% · n=57
Over 2m1f – 2m4f2.7% vs 11.9% · n=37
On Good to Soft going6.1% vs 11.9% · n=33
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase741520.3%−11.20
NH Flat5723.5%−34.00
Flat2627.7%−21.65
Hurdle300%−3.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft73912.3%−39.77
Good to Soft3326.1%−21.00
Good27311.1%−15.33
Heavy23521.7%+10.25
Standard (AW)400%−4.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Punchestown2600%−26.00
Cheltenham1600%−16.00
Leopardstown1317.7%+6.00
Down Royal13215.4%−3.00
Thurles10330%−1.47
Fairyhouse10440%+9.08
Galway900%−9.00
Downpatrick900%−9.00
Clonmel6116.7%−3.25
Limerick6116.7%−3.25
Naas500%−5.00
Gowran Park4125%−2.75
Killarney400%−4.00
Laytown (AW)400%−4.00
Tipperary4125%+1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 11815.6%+1.00
Class 215213.3%−5.06
Class 3300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite27829.6%0.76−10.93
2nd–3rd fav48714.6%0.89−16.42
4th–6th fav4548.9%1.22−2.50
7th+ in betting4000%0.00−40.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m5347.5%−25.65
2m1f – 2m4f3712.7%−34.25
2m5f – 3m351131.4%+13.86
Over 3m30310%−18.81
6f – 7f400%−4.00
1m2f – 1m4f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202250918%−16.69
202342511.9%−22.02
202423313%−9.47
20253313%−28.67
20261218.3%+7.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1915.3%−11.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners42511.9%−23.77
8-10 runners42511.9%−23.53
17+ runners2700%−27.00
5-7 runners26726.9%+17.33
14-16 runners2328.7%−12.88
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 116 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
39836123300002921
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2006→
133
Archived wins
3
Pattern / graded wins
£1.84m
Prize money
2021
Best season · 19 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 11.3% of 5,877 runs since 2013 (684 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.
Progeny have won 8.3% of 1,914 runs since 2019 (297 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 1.9% from 106. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13% from 284.
Progeny have won 13.5% of 7,032 runs since 2011 (543 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.3% from 1,044. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 19.8% from 126. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.4% from 267.
Progeny have won 13.4% of 7,030 runs since 2011 (704 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,293 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,293 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 20 April 2006 to 27 July 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mr B O'Neill's strike rate?
Mr B O'Neill has won 19 of 160 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 11.9% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Mr B O'Neill's Fair A/E?
0.83, from 160 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mr B O'Neill·SR 11.9%·A/E 0.83
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