Skip to content
Horse profile

Expected Arrival (IRE)

3yo filly (at last run, Nov 2024) · Last trainer Kevin Philippart De Foy · Last owner Mrs A G Kavanagh
by Twilight Son (GB) out of Litigious (GB) (Lawman)
7 runs · 6 courses · from Nov 2023
As at 21 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
No run recorded since 23 Nov 2024 — 696 days ago. Our archive can't say whether the horse is still in training.
Last run Nov 2024 · 2nd of 9 Won at Haydock
KTB Profile

Expected Arrival won one of seven starts, the success coming in a Class 5 handicap at Haydock over 1m2f – 1m4f on good to firm in Aug 2024. The filly, by Twilight Son out of a Lawman mare, has four placed efforts from those seven runs. She finished second of nine at Chantilly in Nov 2024. All wins at Class 5.

Based on 7 archived runs · run-style from 2 commented runs since Aug 2024 · updated 21 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Won on turf, 0 on AW Win at Class 5

KTB Speed and Rating

KTB Speed

Best recent Speed 95 the best of the last 3 graded (A or B) runs · Haydock, 10 Aug 2024

How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →

Flat 6 figures · best 106B · median 70.5
GoingRunsBestMedianSince 21 Oct 2025
Standard (AW)4106B70.5—
Good to Firm1———
Soft1———
DistanceRunsBestMedianSince 21 Oct 2025
1m2f – 1m4f4106B84—
1m – 1m1f1———
6f – 7f1———

KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 6 figures from 6 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast

KTB Rating

Best recent KTB Rating 84A the best of the last 3 rated runs · Kempton (AW), 2 Oct 2024 Official rating 78 at the last run, 2 Oct 2024

What the horse achieved in each race, in pounds on the official-rating scale, from the weight carried, the lengths beaten and the race's own level solved across the archive — never the market, never the official rating as a starting point. The headline is the best of the horse's last three rated runs on that code. A, B or C on a run is how much known form was in that race. What this means →

Flat 6 figures · best 84A · median 73.5
GoingRunsBestMedianSince 21 Oct 2025
Standard (AW)484A73—
Good to Firm1———
Soft1———
DistanceRunsBestMedianSince 21 Oct 2025
1m2f – 1m4f484A77—
1m – 1m1f1———
6f – 7f1———

KTB Rating v1 · batch 3 Oct 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 6 figures from 6 runs · as at 4 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast

Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.

Pedigree intelligence

Sire
Twilight Son (GB)

Progeny in our archive have won 9.6% of 3,641 runs since Jan 2008 (281 horses).

Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12.6% from 613.

GoingRunsWinsSRvs sireThis horse
Firm12433.3%+23.7—
Good to Firm6517110.9%+1.31 from 1
Good816809.8%+0.2—
Good to Soft302237.6%−2—
Soft3283711.3%+1.70 from 1
Heavy90910%+0.4—
Standard (AW)1,4411278.8%−0.80 from 5
Distance (all codes)RunsWinsSRvs sireThis horse
Under 6f6137712.6%+3—
6f – 7f1,8961799.4%−0.20 from 1
1m – 1m1f684527.6%−20 from 2
1m2f – 1m4f3673910.6%+11 from 4
1m5f – 2m6234.8%−4.8—
2m1f – 2m4f1815.6%−4—
2m5f – 3m100%−9.6—

Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 21 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast

Dam
Litigious (GB) (Lawman)

1 sibling in the archive, 0 winners.

ProduceRunsWinsWin tripsBest grade
Shanlieve (IRE)60——

Record by conditions

GoingRunsWinsSR£1
Standard (AW) 5 0 0% −5.00
Good to Firm 1 1 100% +5.50
Soft 1 0 0% −1.00

ClassRunsWinsSR£1
Class 5 4 1 25% +2.50
Class 4 2 0 0% −2.00

CourseRunsWinsSR£1
Kempton (AW) 2 0 0% −2.00
Chantilly (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00
Haydock 1 1 100% +5.50
Windsor 1 0 0% −1.00
Chelmsford City (AW) 1 0 0% −1.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 1 0 0% −1.00

DistanceRunsWinsSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f 4 1 25% +2.50
1m – 1m1f 2 0 0% −2.00
6f – 7f 1 0 0% −1.00

JockeyRunsWinsSR£1
Kieran Shoemark 2 1 50% +4.50
Benoit De La Sayette 2 0 0% −2.00
Aurelien Lemaitre 1 0 0% −1.00
Jack Mitchell 1 0 0% −1.00
Kevin Stott 1 0 0% −1.00

SeasonRunsWinsSR£1
2024 5 1 20% +1.50
2023 2 0 0% −2.00

Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.

Form

DateCourseRace PosBtn Wgt ORSpdKTB Jockey SP
23 Nov 24+52d Chantilly (FR) Grand Prix de Fontainebleau - Fonds Europeen de l'Elevage () (3yo+ F&M) (A-W) (Polytrack) 9.5f · Standard · 9 ran 2/9 ¾ 8-11 ——— Aurelien Lemaitre 15/1
02 Oct 24+53d Kempton (AW) Highclere Castle Feeds Handicap Class 4 · 11f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran Settled midpack - shifted out and pushed along inside final 2f - stayed on without matching the leading speed - finished 5th 5/12 ¾ 9-7 7873A84A Kieran Shoemark 4/1
10 Aug 24+26d Haydock Betfred Nifty 50 Handicap Class 5 · 10.5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran Set the pace from the off - pushed along a furlong out and kept finding more - crossed the line without pressure 1/7 9-8 7495A80A Kieran Shoemark 11/2
15 Jul 24+25d Windsor Trailfinders, The Travel Experts Handicap Class 5 · 10f · Soft · 7 ran 3/7 ¾ 9-8 7462A73A Benoit De La Sayette 9/1
20 Jun 24+187d Chelmsford City (AW) Raoul Collet Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race) Class 5 · 10f · Standard · 12 ran 2/12 2¾ 9-2 —106B74A Jack Mitchell 5/1
16 Dec 23+45d Wolverhampton (AW) Bet 10 Get 40 At BetMGM Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) Class 5 · 8.5f · Standard · 11 ran 3/11 nk 9-2 —68A72A Benoit De La Sayette 6/1
01 Nov 23 Kempton (AW) Unibet Zero% Mission/British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2) Class 4 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 10 ran 5/10 1 9-2 —65A65A Kevin Stott 28/1

Quick answers

How many races has Expected Arrival (IRE) won?
Expected Arrival (IRE) won 1 of 7 archived starts between 2023 and 2024, a strike rate of 14.3%. Placed 4 times in total (57.1% of starts).
Who trained Expected Arrival (IRE)?
Expected Arrival (IRE) was trained by Kevin Philippart De Foy on the most recent run on record, at Chantilly (FR) on 23 November 2024.
Who is Expected Arrival (IRE)'s sire?
Expected Arrival (IRE) is by Twilight Son (GB) out of Litigious (GB), whose sire is Lawman.
What is Expected Arrival (IRE)'s official rating?
Expected Arrival (IRE)'s highest official rating on record is 78.
What is Expected Arrival (IRE)'s sire's record?
Twilight Son (GB)'s progeny in our archive have won 9.6% of 3,641 runs since Jan 2008 (281 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12.6% from 613.
Who are Expected Arrival (IRE)'s siblings?
Out of Litigious (GB), Expected Arrival (IRE) has 1 other produce in our archive, 0 of them winners. As at Oct 2026.

Record shown from November 2023. Our archive holds racing in Great Britain, Ireland and France from January 2005. Runs in other countries are not in it, and earlier runs are not available from our data provider. In-running comments are available from 2024 onward.