What is Jack Mitchell's strike rate?

Jack Mitchell has won 475 of 3,128 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 15.2% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Jack Mitchell do best at?

Lingfield (AW) by strike rate: 56 wins from 292 rides (19.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Jack Mitchell ride most for?

Roger Varian, with 582 rides since 2022 — 19% of the total. That pairing has won 124 (21.3%).

Is Jack Mitchell in form?

In the last 14 days: 35 rides, 6 winners, a strike rate of 17.1%. That is in line with the baseline of 15.2% since 2022.

What is Jack Mitchell's Fair A/E?

0.98, from 3,116 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Jack Mitchell

3,128 rides in the last 5 seasons · 1,594 individual horses

As at 21 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 2 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

475–3,128

Wins / Runs

15.2%

Strike rate

n=3,128

1,209 (39%)

Placed

0.98

Fair A/E

n=3,116 · 0.85 incl. margin

−471.48

£1 level stake

n=3,128 at SP · −15.1%

£6.57m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

13%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 630 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 15% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.98). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 20% (377 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 3,128 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Dec–Feb 34.5% when favourite Roger Varian: 21.3% from 582 LTO winners: 20.2% Rides the favourite in 19% of races

The read

It is weakest at Newbury (6.2% over 65 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 20.2% (n=377, Fair A/E 0.90), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 7.2% (n=138, Fair A/E 0.63). Rides in big fields of 14 or more are the standout value angle: 10.9% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.33 and +67.62 to a £1 stake over 256 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Roger Varian supplies 19% of the rides and beats the rider's average (21.3% vs 15.2%, A/E 0.93). The record reads poorly on Heavy going — 2.4% over 41 rides, 12.8pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Class 1: Fair A/E 0.59 across 137 rides (6.6% strike, −82.40 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 24 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the John Smith's Cup Handicap at York (Jul 2024, £103,080). The standout partner of the record: Documenting (GB) — 7 wins from 24 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Dec–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 15.2% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

13.6%−1.6

n=1,482 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −250.11

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

20.2%+5.0

n=377 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −88.53

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

13.5%−1.7

n=524 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −139.83

When favourite

34.5%

n=585 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −76.22

Big fields · 14+ runners

10.9%−4.3

n=256 · A/E 1.33 · £1 +67.62

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.2%−8.0

n=138 · A/E 0.63 · £1 −82.20

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 15.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Simon & Ed Crisford 24.3% vs 15.2% · n=247

On Heavy going 2.4% vs 15.2% · n=41

In Class 1 6.6% vs 15.2% · n=137

In Group / Graded races 7.2% vs 15.2% · n=138

With Roger Varian 21.3% vs 15.2% · n=582

At Newbury 6.2% vs 15.2% · n=65

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,793 291 16.2% −280.05

Good to Firm 518 75 14.5% −78.49

Good 452 66 14.6% −59.85

Good to Soft 173 21 12.1% +4.75

Soft 148 21 14.2% −30.84

Heavy 41 1 2.4% −24.00

Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 420 56 13.3% −123.12

Wolverhampton (AW) 416 66 15.9% −38.21

Lingfield (AW) 292 56 19.2% −14.29

Chelmsford City (AW) 230 39 17% −10.03

Southwell (AW) 220 33 15% −65.09

Newcastle (AW) 213 41 19.2% −27.31

Yarmouth 166 27 16.3% +4.94

Windsor 139 18 12.9% −42.66

Doncaster 95 14 14.7% −2.83

Newmarket 92 16 17.4% +15.53

Goodwood 73 9 12.3% −18.25

Newmarket 68 7 10.3% +3.33

Nottingham 67 9 13.4% −0.12

Newbury 65 4 6.2% −21.50

Salisbury 60 7 11.7% −14.06

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 1,030 197 19.1% +51.93

Class 4 838 108 12.9% −305.14

Class 6 629 88 14% −130.26

Class 3 262 41 15.6% +27.35

Class 2 230 32 13.9% −30.96

Class 1 137 9 6.6% −82.40

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 655 213 32.5% 0.98 −103.84

2nd–3rd fav 974 161 16.5% 0.94 −199.14

4th–6th fav 912 75 8.2% 1.00 −165.50

7th+ in betting 587 26 4.4% 1.24 −3.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Documenting (GB) 20 5 8 15 Aug 26

Thapa VC (IRE) 18 3 7 12 May 26

Storm Catcher (IRE) 15 5 7 12 Mar 26

Red Walls (GB) 14 3 6 26 Jan 26

Almaty Star (IRE) 12 2 8 6 Jul 26

Al Barez (GB) 12 2 4 11 Jun 26

Tyrrhenian Sea (IRE) 12 4 9 3 Apr 26

Mesaafi (GB) 11 2 5 14 Oct 26

Telemark (IRE) 10 2 2 19 Oct 26

Orchard Keeper (IRE) 10 2 4 8 Oct 26

Ash Wednesday (GB) 9 3 6 18 Sep 26

Papa Cocktail (IRE) 9 1 5 15 Sep 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,594 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Steady

6 from 35 17.1% · +1.9pts vs baseline

Last 14 days17.1%

5-season base15.2%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

191715161414141316161416

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardRoger Varian

19% of all rides
21.3% SR · A/E 0.93

TrainerRWSR£1

Roger Varian 582 124 21.3% −66.67

Tom Clover 261 40 15.3% −6.50

Simon & Ed Crisford 247 60 24.3% −21.47

Charlie Johnston 184 25 13.6% −60.51

Kevin Frost 137 21 15.3% +72.16

Roger Teal 100 13 13% −10.17

Kevin Philippart De Foy 86 17 19.8% +2.22

Heather Main 83 13 15.7% +44.95

Robert Cowell 81 9 11.1% −28.65

Simon Pearce 75 13 17.3% +27.90

Daniel & Claire Kubler 54 7 13% −24.00

James Horton 50 4 8% −26.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

1,146

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£12.0m

Prize money

2021

Best season · 116 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Enfjaar (IRE) — John Smith's Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) York · Jul 2024 · Class 2

£103,080

Tyrrhenian Sea (IRE) — BetMGM All-Weather Championships Mile Handicap Newcastle (AW) · Apr 2026 · Class 2

£77,310

Royal Champion (IRE) — Wolferton Stakes (Listed) Ascot · Jun 2023 · Listed

£62,381

Notable horses

Documenting (GB) Choral Clan (IRE) The Tichborne (IRE) Storm Catcher (IRE) Bold Argument (IRE) Full Intention (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dark Angel (IRE) 17% · 18–106

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,878 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Kodiac (GB) 13% · 13–100

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,538 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 252.

Showcasing (GB) 19.5% · 15–77

Progeny have won 10.1% of 11,584 runs since 2008 (996 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 108.

Churchill (IRE) 16.4% · 11–67

Progeny have won 11% of 4,788 runs since 2008 (459 horses).

Frankel (GB) 17.2% · 11–64

Progeny have won 18% of 7,499 runs since 2008 (875 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 12.3% from 324. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 12.4% from 267.

Kingman (GB) 17.5% · 10–57

Progeny have won 14.6% of 7,471 runs since 2008 (775 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11.1% from 959. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9.1% from 121.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 7,996 · newest first

The latest 50 of 7,996 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 21 February 2005 to 19 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Celtic Chariot (IRE)T: Kevin & Lauren Frost attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap StakesClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 9/1

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Purosangue (GB)T: Robert Cowell Cavani Best Dressed Handicap StakesClass 3 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 10/1

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Telemark (IRE)T: Simon & Ed Crisford Race And Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Conditions Stakes (GBB Race)Class 2 · 8.5f · Standard · 6 ran 5th 40/1

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Champion Again Ole (IRE)T: Roger Varian Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 5/1

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Honeymoon Bear (IRE)T: Joseph Parr Download The At The Races App Nursery Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 6th 16/1

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Sacred Rhythm (IRE)T: Joseph Parr Download The At The Races App Nursery Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 16/1

17 Oct 26 Ascot Indalo (IRE)T: Roger Varian Balmoral Handicap Stakes (sponsored By Qatar Racing)Class 2 · 8f · Good · 20 ran 2nd 16/1

16 Oct 26 Haydock Harry's Halo (IRE)T: Kevin & Lauren Frost Shape Engineering Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Heavy · 14 ran 9th 11/1

16 Oct 26 Haydock Explosive Finnish (GB)T: Kevin & Lauren Frost Weatherbys Stallion Book Handicap StakesClass 3 · 5f · Heavy · 14 ran 6th 6/1

16 Oct 26 Haydock Asheyra (IRE)T: Roger Varian Jill Wilcox Jones Memorial EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Heavy · 3 ran 3rd 6/4

16 Oct 26 Haydock Return To Unit (GB)T: Roger Varian M6Toll Road To Victory Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 3 · 8f · Heavy · 10 ran 2nd 9/1

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Peel Park (IRE)T: Roger Varian Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 5/1

14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) War Hawk (IRE)T: Simon & Ed Crisford Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap Stakes (London Middle Distance Qualifier) (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 11f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 1st 11/2

14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Mesaafi (GB)T: Ross Burdon Unibet London Sprint Series Final Handicap Stakes (Series Final - Qualified Horses Only)Class 2 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 11 ran 2nd 10/1

14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Waistcoat (GB)T: Ross Burdon Racing TV Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 12 ran 7th 20/1

14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Lady Caroline Lamb (GB)T: Charlie Johnston Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Nursery Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 7 ran 5th 11/1

14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Hayate (IRE)T: Roger Varian Unibet/British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 8 ran 1st 5/6F

13 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Pipily (GB)T: T. J. Kent Cavani Raceday Style Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 11 ran 6th 10/1

13 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Zachary Hickes (GB)T: Roger Varian Stay At The Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 14f · Standard · 7 ran 1st 10/11F

12 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Port Of Entry (IRE)T: Robert Bevis Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap Stakes (London Stayers' Series Qualifier)Class 6 · 16f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 9th 28/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Jack Mitchell's strike rate?: Jack Mitchell has won 475 of 3,128 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 15.2% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Jack Mitchell do best at?: Lingfield (AW) by strike rate: 56 wins from 292 rides (19.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Jack Mitchell ride most for?: Roger Varian, with 582 rides since 2022 — 19% of the total. That pairing has won 124 (21.3%).
Is Jack Mitchell in form?: In the last 14 days: 35 rides, 6 winners, a strike rate of 17.1%. That is in line with the baseline of 15.2% since 2022.
What is Jack Mitchell's Fair A/E?: 0.98, from 3,116 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.