Florida Bay (IRE)
Typically a front-runner in 4 of 5 analysed runs — Florida Bay (IRE) is 2 from 7, including a Group 3 win. The biggest win we hold: the Japan Racing Association Tyros Stakes at Leopardstown (IRE) (Jul 2026). Each win came on a first visit to the course. Last raced off a career-high mark of 106.
- 2–7Wins / Runs
- 28.6%Strike rate
- 4 (57.1%)Placed
- −0.97£1 level staken=7 at SP
- 1.17Fair A/E n=7 · 1.00 incl. margin
- 106Highest OR
- 24dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 116
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 1 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 5 | 116A | 100 | 5 runs · 116 / 100 |
| Soft | 1 | — | — | 1 run · — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 1 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 5 | 116A | 82 | 5 runs · 116 / 82 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1 | — | — | 1 run · — |
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 6 figures from 6 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 5 analysed runs since May 2026
- Led 4 (80%) · 1 win
- Prominent 1 (20%) · 0 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 11.5% of 8,196 runs since Jun 2020 (751 horses).
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 19 | 2 | 10.5% | −1 | — |
| Good to Firm | 1,457 | 179 | 12.3% | +0.8 | — |
| Good | 1,957 | 221 | 11.3% | −0.2 | 2 from 5 |
| Good to Soft | 761 | 84 | 11% | −0.5 | 0 from 1 |
| Soft | 928 | 97 | 10.5% | −1 | 0 from 1 |
| Heavy | 225 | 22 | 9.8% | −1.7 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 2,849 | 341 | 12% | +0.5 | — |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 2,100 | 267 | 12.7% | +1.2 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 4,311 | 477 | 11.1% | −0.4 | 2 from 6 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1,382 | 158 | 11.4% | −0.1 | 0 from 1 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 366 | 43 | 11.7% | +0.2 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 30 | 1 | 3.3% | −8.2 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 6 | 0 | 0% | −11.5 | — |
| Over 3m | 1 | 0 | 0% | −11.5 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jun 2020 · as at 31 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
1 sibling in the archive, 1 winner — best of them Alhama River (IRE) (1 win).
The wins came over 1m.
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alhama River (IRE) | 4 | 1 | 1m | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 5 | 2 | 40% | +1.03 |
| Good to Soft | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Soft | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 1 | 4 | 1 | 25% | +0.50 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curragh (IRE) | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Longchamp (FR) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Leopardstown (IRE) | 1 | 1 | 100% | +3.50 |
| Naas | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Fairyhouse | 1 | 1 | 100% | +0.53 |
| Leopardstown | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 6 | 2 | 33% | +0.03 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronan Whelan | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Wayne Lordan | 2 | 1 | 50% | +2.50 |
| Jack Cleary | 2 | 1 | 50% | −0.47 |
| William Buick | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · 7 runs | ||||||||||
| 04 Oct 26+21d | Longchamp (FR) | Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Group 1) | 4/10 | shd | 8-13 | 106 | — | — | William Buick | 28/1 |
| 13 Sep 26+22d | Curragh (IRE) | Goffs Vincent O'Brien National Stakes (Group 1) Set the early gallop - pressed for effort and lost command 2f out - held third and stayed on steadily to the line | 3/8 | 1¼ | 9-5 | 106 | 45A | 98A | Ronan Whelan | 12/1 |
| 22 Aug 26+30d | Curragh (IRE) | Coolmore Stud City Of Troy Tom Cooper Irish EBF Futurity Stakes (Group 2) Set the pace early - asked for effort with 2f left - challenged inside final furlong - overtaken in the last strides - battled back but denied by a short margin | 2/6 | ½ | 9-5 | 106 | 103A | 97A | Ronan Whelan | 9/4 |
| 23 Jul 26+19d | Leopardstown (IRE) | Japan Racing Association Tyros Stakes (Group 3) set every stride from the front - two lengths clear at halfway - sent forward 2f out - driven over 1f out - margin narrowed early in the last furlong but found plenty | 1/6 | 9-5 | 95 | 116A | 104B | Wayne Lordan | 7/2 | |
| 04 Jul 26+29d | Naas | Irish EBF Pat Smullen Stakes (Listed) Shared front spot early before going clear after 3f - pressed for effort and lost the advantage inside the last two furlongs - unable to find more close home - finished fourth beaten 3 lengths | 4/7 | ¾ | 9-6 | — | 100A | 86A | Jack Cleary | 4/6F |
| 05 Jun 26+21d | Fairyhouse | Irish Stallion Farms EBF Race Shared front spot early - clear by halfway - driven approaching final two furlongs and matched stride for stride inside the last - found more to prevail | 1/9 | 9-0 | — | 82A | 98A | Jack Cleary | 8/15F | |
| 15 May 26 | Leopardstown | Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Held third early - pushed along before the straight - dropped to 4th with a furlong and a half left - found trouble for room inside the final furlong - darted right for space - stayed on but couldn't get to the front runners | 3/7 | ½ | 9-7 | — | 81A | 87B | Wayne Lordan | 8/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Florida Bay won?
- Florida Bay (IRE) won 2 of 7 archived starts in 2026, a strike rate of 28.6%. Placed 4 times in total (57.1% of starts).
- Who trains Florida Bay?
- Florida Bay (IRE) is trained by Aidan O'Brien, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 4 October 2026.
- Who is Florida Bay's sire?
- Florida Bay (IRE) is by Mehmas (IRE) out of Ripponette (FR), whose sire is Le Havre.
- What going does Florida Bay prefer?
- Florida Bay (IRE) has the best record on good going: 2 wins from 5 starts (40%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Florida Bay's official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 106, from the run on 4 October 2026. That is also the highest on record.
- What is Florida Bay's sire's record?
- Mehmas (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 11.5% of 8,196 runs since Jun 2020 (751 horses), Flat and jumps together.
- Who are Florida Bay's siblings?
- Out of Ripponette (FR), Florida Bay (IRE) has 1 other produce in our archive, 1 of them a winner. Most wins: Alhama River (IRE) (1). The wins came over 1m. As at Nov 2026.