Horse profile
Grey Dawning (IRE)
by Flemensfirth (USA) out of Lady Wagtail (IRE) (Milan)
21 runs · 8 courses · from Dec 2021
As at 18 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
Won last time out
11 wins · 8 courses
First-time headgear LTO
Off 190 days · 1st of 7
Last raced off OR 165
KTB Profile
Grey Dawning is 11 from 21, with three Grade 1 wins in the archive including the JCB Melling Chase at Aintree in Apr 2026. He has five wins from eight starts at 2m5f to 3m and four from eight on good to soft. All wins came on turf. He won last time out at Aintree in Apr 2026 in the JCB Melling Chase, his first run in first-time headgear, off an official rating of 165.
Based on 21 archived runs · run-style from 7 commented runs · updated 18 Oct 2026
- 11–21Wins / Runs
- 52.4%Strike rate
- 15 (71.4%)Placed
- +13.54£1 level staken=21 at SP
- 1.61Fair A/E n=21 · 1.43 incl. margin
- 166Highest OR
- 78dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
Official rating165↓ 1lb off peak
165
123–166
KTB Speed and Rating
KTB Speed
Best recent Speed 119
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
Jumps
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 18 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft | 9 | 164A | 93 | 1 · — |
| Good to Soft | 8 | 138C | 108 | 3 · 119 / 108 |
| Heavy | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 18 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2m5f – 3m | 6 | 140C | 110 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 5 | 121A | 113 | 1 · — |
| Over 3m | 5 | 119A | 96 | 3 · 119 / 96 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 2 | 164A | 127 | — |
Of 21 runs looked at, 3 have no figure: did not complete (2) · not enough races on the card to set the day (under 4) (1).
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 18 figures from 21 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 7 analysed runs
- Held up 3 (43%) · 1 win
- Prominent 2 (29%) · 0 wins
- Midfield 1 (14%) · 1 win
- Led 1 (14%) · 1 win
Pedigree intelligence
Sire
Flemensfirth (USA)
Progeny in our archive have won 11.8% of 17,272 runs since Jan 2008 (1,594 horses).
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 38 | 0 | 0% | −11.8 | — |
| Good to Firm | 522 | 50 | 9.6% | −2.2 | — |
| Good | 4,051 | 441 | 10.9% | −0.9 | 0 from 1 |
| Good to Soft | 2,929 | 353 | 12.1% | +0.3 | 4 from 8 |
| Soft | 5,876 | 751 | 12.8% | +1 | 5 from 10 |
| Heavy | 3,814 | 449 | 11.8% | 0 | 2 from 2 |
| Standard (AW) | 42 | 2 | 4.8% | −7 | — |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m – 1m1f | 2 | 0 | 0% | −11.8 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 25 | 1 | 4% | −7.8 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 4,484 | 547 | 12.2% | +0.4 | 3 from 3 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 6,076 | 723 | 11.9% | +0.1 | 2 from 5 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 5,253 | 622 | 11.8% | 0 | 5 from 8 |
| Over 3m | 1,432 | 153 | 10.7% | −1.1 | 1 from 5 |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 17 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
Dam
Lady Wagtail (IRE) (Milan)
3 siblings in the archive, 3 winners — best of them Tide Times (IRE) (5 wins).
The wins came over 1m7½f–3m1½f; the highest grade won is Class 3 (Tide Times (IRE)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tide Times (IRE) | 35 | 5 | 2m7½f–3m1½f | Class 3 |
| Blanketontheground (IRE) | 25 | 2 | 1m7½f–2m | — |
| Neetside (IRE) | 25 | 2 | 2m1f–2m7f | Class 4 |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft | 10 | 5 | 50% | +6.50 |
| Good to Soft | 8 | 4 | 50% | +3.24 |
| Heavy | 2 | 2 | 100% | +4.80 |
| Good | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 1 | 13 | 6 | 46% | +7.99 |
| Class 2 | 3 | 1 | 33% | +0.00 |
| Class 3 | 2 | 1 | 50% | +0.25 |
| Class 5 | 2 | 2 | 100% | +4.80 |
| Class 4 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +0.50 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aintree | 5 | 1 | 20% | +1.00 |
| Cheltenham | 4 | 1 | 25% | −0.50 |
| Haydock | 3 | 2 | 67% | +1.91 |
| Kempton | 2 | 1 | 50% | +0.25 |
| Warwick | 2 | 2 | 100% | +5.75 |
| Exeter | 2 | 1 | 50% | −0.50 |
| Wetherby | 2 | 2 | 100% | +4.80 |
| Kelso | 1 | 1 | 100% | +0.83 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2m5f – 3m | 8 | 5 | 63% | +6.83 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 5 | 2 | 40% | +4.50 |
| Over 3m | 5 | 1 | 20% | −3.09 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 3 | 3 | 100% | +5.30 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 20 | 10 | 50% | +8.54 |
| Cheekpieces | 1 | 1 | 100% | +5.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 1 | 33% | +3.00 |
| 2025 | 3 | 2 | 67% | +0.74 |
| 2024 | 5 | 2 | 40% | +0.75 |
| 2023 | 5 | 2 | 40% | +3.50 |
| 2022 | 4 | 3 | 75% | +1.05 |
| 2021 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +4.50 |
| Type | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase | 14 | 6 | 43% | +4.49 |
| Hurdle | 5 | 3 | 60% | +4.25 |
| NH Flat | 2 | 2 | 100% | +4.80 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Apr 26+28d | Aintree | JCB Melling Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Settled midfield early - closed on the front group after the 6th - shared second spot by the 11th - upsides the front-runner after three out - driven forward before two out - edged in front near the last - battled to the line and prevailed by a whisker | 1/7 | 11-10 | 165 | 108A | 153B | Harry Skelton | 5/1 | |
| 13 Mar 26+48d | Cheltenham | Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Handy early - moved into second before the 6th - shared second at the 9th - blundered at the 15th and the following fence - dropped from second 3 out - pushed along to fight for second before 2 out - drifted right after that - soon slipped back - weakened after the last to finish fourth | 4/10 | 6½ | 11-10 | 166 | 119A | 147A | Harry Skelton | 16/1 |
| 24 Jan 26+63d | Cheltenham | Betfair Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Settled in rear early - improved into third and closing when stumbling 2 out to end prospects - stayed on same speed to finish third | 3/4 | 4¼ | 11-10 | 166 | 77C | 145B | Harry Skelton | EvensF |
| 22 Nov 25+233d | Haydock | Betfair Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Lancashire Chase) (GBB Race) Held up early - moved into contention after the 4th - up to third by the 15th - going well and improved into second 4 out - tracking the front-runner on the bit into the straight - edged ahead close home - driven out to win comfortably | 1/5 | 11-10 | 166 | 96C | 147B | Harry Skelton | 10/11F | |
| 03 Apr 25+33d | Aintree | Brooklands Golden Miller Chronograph Bowl Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Handy early - jumped awkwardly 4th and dropped back before 12th - scrambled over 14th then regained second spot 3 out - moved in front approaching 2 out - met by rival who blundered and edged past close home - unable to fight back on run-in | 2/7 | 3 | 11-10 | 162 | 97A | 154B | Harry Skelton | 9/4F |
| 01 Mar 25+65d | Kelso | bet365 Premier Chase (Listed) (GBB Race) Set the pace from the start - fenced cleanly and stayed fluent - driven on to assert after the second-last - edged clear up the run-in for an untroubled win | 1/4 | 11-5 | 162 | 138C | 149C | Harry Skelton | 5/6F | |
| 26 Dec 24+33d | Kempton | Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Held up towards the back - blundered at the first - made some progress but hit the 13th - lost touch before 3 out and was soon pulled up | PU/11 | — | 11-10 | 165 | — | — | Harry Skelton | 13/2 |
| 23 Nov 24+226d | Haydock | Betfair Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Lancashire Chase) (GBB Race) Tracked the pace on the inner - travelled soundly over obstacles though stumbled a touch 15th - moved into second 4 out - hit the front but scrambled over the last - overtaken on the run-in - lost second place close home | 2/7 | 2 | 11-10 | 157 | 91A | 148B | Harry Skelton | 15/8F |
| 11 Apr 24+28d | Aintree | Close Brothers Manifesto Novices' Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) | 3/5 | hd | 11-7 | 158 | 113C | 143B | Harry Skelton | 11/10F |
| 14 Mar 24+61d | Cheltenham | Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Golden Miller) (GBB Race) | 1/11 | 11-7 | 153 | 121A | 156A | Harry Skelton | 5/2J | |
| 13 Jan 24+29d | Warwick | TrustATrader Hampton Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) | 1/5 | 11-7 | 144 | 112C | 156B | Harry Skelton | 5/4F | |
| 15 Dec 23+20d | Cheltenham | Cheltenham & South-West Racing Club Novices' Chase (GBB Race) | 2/6 | ¾ | 11-12 | 144 | 93B | 146B | Harry Skelton | 2/1F |
| 25 Nov 23+15d | Haydock | Betfair Exchange Graduation Chase (GBB Race) | 1/5 | 11-0 | 137 | 59C | 140B | Harry Skelton | 2/1 | |
| 10 Nov 23+210d | Exeter | Betway 'Future Stars' Silver Bowl Novices' Chase (GBB Race) | 3/5 | 1 | 11-2 | 141 | 108C | 130B | Harry Skelton | 85/40 |
| 14 Apr 23+90d | Aintree | Winners Wear Cavani Sefton Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) | F/15 | — | 11-8 | 141 | — | — | Harry Skelton | 5/1 |
| 14 Jan 23+19d | Warwick | Ballymore Leamington Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) | 1/7 | 11-2 | 129 | 140C | 148B | Harry Skelton | 9/2 | |
| 26 Dec 22+24d | Kempton | Ladbrokes Fanzone 'Your Team Your Game' Handicap Hurdle | 1/15 | 11-0 | 123 | 81B | 136A | Harry Skelton | 5/4F | |
| 02 Dec 22+27d | Exeter | British Stallion Studs EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) | 1/17 | 11-0 | — | 90B | 140A | Harry Skelton | 1/2F | |
| 05 Nov 22+243d | Aintree | BoyleSports EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) | 2/7 | 1¼ | 11-0 | — | 120A | 133B | Harry Skelton | 10/11F |
| 07 Mar 22+70d | Wetherby | wetherbyracing.co.uk Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race) | 1/3 | 11-10 | — | — | 149C | Harry Skelton | 30/100F | |
| 27 Dec 21 | Wetherby | William Hill Racing Radio Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race) | 1/12 | 11-0 | — | 164A | 137A | Harry Skelton | 9/2 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Grey Dawning (IRE) won?
- Grey Dawning (IRE) won 11 of 21 archived starts between 2021 and 2026, a strike rate of 52.4%. Placed 15 times in total (71.4% of starts).
- Who trains Grey Dawning (IRE)?
- Grey Dawning (IRE) is trained by Dan Skelton, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 10 April 2026.
- Who is Grey Dawning (IRE)'s sire?
- Grey Dawning (IRE) is by Flemensfirth (USA) out of Lady Wagtail (IRE), whose sire is Milan.
- What going does Grey Dawning (IRE) prefer?
- Grey Dawning (IRE) has the best record on soft going: 5 wins from 10 starts (50%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Grey Dawning (IRE)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 165, from the run on 10 April 2026. The highest on record is 166.
- What is Grey Dawning (IRE)'s sire's record?
- Flemensfirth (USA)'s progeny in our archive have won 11.8% of 17,272 runs since Jan 2008 (1,594 horses), Flat and jumps together.
- Who are Grey Dawning (IRE)'s siblings?
- Out of Lady Wagtail (IRE), Grey Dawning (IRE) has 3 other produce in our archive, 3 of them winners. Most wins: Tide Times (IRE) (5). Highest grade won: Class 3 (Tide Times (IRE)). The wins came over 1m7½f–3m1½f. As at Oct 2026.