Likelihood (USA)
Likelihood (USA) is 1 from 7, the win coming at Class 5 level. Hasn't won since Aug 2013. Last raced off a career-high mark of 82.
Progeny in our archive
As a dam, Likelihood (USA) has 6 produce in the archive, 3 winners — most wins Shes Got A Brother (GB) (2 wins).
The wins came over 5f–1m7½f; the highest grade won is Class 3 (Shes Got A Brother (GB)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shes Got A Brother (GB) | 9 | 2 | 5f | Class 3 |
| Paddy's Fancy (GB) | 17 | 1 | 1m7½f | Class 3 |
| Future History (GB) | 6 | 1 | 1m2f | — |
| Caballine (GB) | 7 | 0 | — | — |
| Incidental (GB) | 1 | 0 | — | — |
| Price Tag (GB) | 1 | 0 | — | — |
- 1–7Wins / Runs
- 14.3%Strike rate
- 3 (42.9%)Placed
- −5.20£1 level staken=7 at SP
- 0.74Fair A/E n=7 · 0.62 incl. margin
- 82Highest OR
- 55dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
No KTB Speed figures for this horse. The engine scores GB and Irish racing from Sep 2016; runs elsewhere, or earlier, have no figure.
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 0 figures from 0 runs · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style is derived from in-running commentary, which our data provider does not supply for this horse's races.
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 11.4% of 1,610 runs since Jan 2008 (130 horses).
Strongest on standard (aw) going: 14.4% from 631. Weakest on good to soft going: 4.9% from 162. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 8.3% from 181.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | −0.3 | — |
| Good to Firm | 235 | 22 | 9.4% | −2 | 0 from 1 |
| Good | 332 | 43 | 13% | +1.6 | 1 from 4 |
| Good to Soft | 162 | 8 | 4.9% | −6.5 | — |
| Soft | 191 | 14 | 7.3% | −4.1 | — |
| Heavy | 50 | 5 | 10% | −1.4 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 631 | 91 | 14.4% | +3 | 0 from 2 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 56 | 8 | 14.3% | +2.9 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 468 | 57 | 12.2% | +0.8 | 0 from 2 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 453 | 64 | 14.1% | +2.7 | 1 from 1 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 385 | 36 | 9.4% | −2 | 0 from 4 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 181 | 15 | 8.3% | −3.1 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 53 | 4 | 7.5% | −3.9 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 11 | 0 | 0% | −11.4 | — |
| Over 3m | 3 | 0 | 0% | −11.4 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 14 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
5 siblings in the archive, 4 winners — best of them Scottish Jig (USA) (3 wins).
The wins came over 7f–1m2f; the highest grade won is Listed (Scottish Jig (USA)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish Jig (USA) | 7 | 3 | 1m–1m2f | Listed |
| Seek Again (USA) | 7 | 3 | 7f–1m1f | Class 2 |
| Treble Jig (USA) | 8 | 2 | 7f–1m2f | Class 3 |
| Merry Jaunt (USA) | 6 | 1 | 1m2f | Class 6 |
| Luxury Brand (USA) | 1 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 4 | 1 | 25% | −2.20 |
| Standard (AW) | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Good to Firm | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 4 | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Class 5 | 2 | 1 | 50% | −0.20 |
| Class 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kempton (AW) | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Pontefract | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Salisbury | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newbury | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Chepstow | 1 | 1 | 100% | +0.80 |
| Ascot | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| 6f – 7f | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1 | 1 | 100% | +0.80 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Havlin | 4 | 1 | 25% | −2.20 |
| James Doyle | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| William Buick | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 5 | 1 | 20% | −3.20 |
| Hood | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| 2013 | 3 | 1 | 33% | −1.20 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jun 14+12d | Pontefract | Toteexacta Pick The 1, 2 Fillies' Handicap | 6/6 | 4 | 9-0 | 82 | 62B | James Doyle | 2/1F |
| 10 Jun 14+13d | Salisbury | EBF Stallions Breeding Winners Margadale Fillies' Handicap | 3/9 | 1 | 8-12 | 80 | 86A | James Doyle | 8/1 |
| 28 May 14+12d | Kempton (AW) | Betdaq Supporting The Injured Jockeys Fund Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) | 5/10 | 1¼ | 9-7 | 80 | 80A | Robert Havlin | 25/1 |
| 16 May 14+263d | Newbury | Swettenham Stud Fillies' Trial Stakes (Listed) | 7/8 | 2¼ | 9-0 | 80 | 77A | Robert Havlin | 16/1 |
| 26 Aug 13+12d | Chepstow | Best Bookies Offers From thebookiesoffers.co.uk E.B.F. Median Auction Maiden Fillies' Stakes | 1/10 | 9-0 | — | 82A | Robert Havlin | 4/5F | |
| 14 Aug 13+19d | Kempton (AW) | British Stallion Studs E.b.f. Maiden Fillies' Stakes | 2/14 | ½ | 9-0 | — | 86A | William Buick | 7/4F |
| 26 Jul 13 | Ascot | John Guest E.B.F. Maiden Fillies' Stakes | 10/18 | shd | 9-0 | — | 78A | Robert Havlin | 6/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Likelihood (USA) won?
- Likelihood (USA) won 1 of 7 archived starts between 2013 and 2014, a strike rate of 14.3%. Placed 3 times in total (42.9% of starts).
- Who trained Likelihood (USA)?
- Likelihood (USA) was trained by John Gosden on the most recent run on record, at Pontefract on 22 June 2014.
- Who is Likelihood (USA)'s sire?
- Likelihood (USA) is by Mizzen Mast (USA) out of Light Jig (GB), whose sire is Danehill.
- What going does Likelihood (USA) prefer?
- Likelihood (USA) has the best record on good going: 1 win from 4 starts (25%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Likelihood (USA)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 82, from the run on 22 June 2014. That is also the highest on record.
- What is Likelihood (USA)'s sire's record?
- Mizzen Mast (USA)'s progeny in our archive have won 11.4% of 1,610 runs since Jan 2008 (130 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest on standard (aw) going: 14.4% from 631. Weakest on good to soft going: 4.9% from 162. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 8.3% from 181.
- Who are Likelihood (USA)'s siblings?
- Out of Light Jig (GB), Likelihood (USA) has 5 other produce in our archive, 4 of them winners. Most wins: Scottish Jig (USA) (3). Highest grade won: Listed (Scottish Jig (USA)). The wins came over 7f–1m2f. As at Oct 2026.
- Has Likelihood (USA) produced winners?
- As a dam, Likelihood (USA) has 6 produce in our archive, 3 of them winners. Most wins: Shes Got A Brother (GB) (2). Highest grade won: Class 3 (Shes Got A Brother (GB)). The wins came over 5f–1m7½f. As at Oct 2026.