Notachance (IRE)
Notachance won four of 26 starts on turf between Nov 2018 and Feb 2024. His biggest success came in the Grade 3 McCoy Contractors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick in Jan 2021 over 3m on soft ground off a mark of 139. All four wins were in handicaps, three of them on soft ground over 2m5f to 3m. The gelding, trained by Alan King, last ran at Bangor-on-Dee in Feb 2024 off an official rating of 117, 29lb below his highest ever mark.
- 4–26Wins / Runs
- 15.4%Strike rate
- 11 (42.3%)Placed
- −2.25£1 level staken=26 at SP
- 1.27Fair A/E n=26 · 1.09 incl. margin
- 146Highest OR
- 77dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 104
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 21 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft | 9 | 126A | 97 | — |
| Good to Soft | 8 | 119A | 94.5 | — |
| Good | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 21 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2m5f – 3m | 10 | 126A | 99.5 | — |
| Over 3m | 8 | 115B | 69 | — |
Of 26 runs looked at, 8 have no figure: obstacles omitted — the race ran a shortened course (5) · did not complete (3).
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 18 figures from 26 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style is derived from in-running commentary, which our data provider does not supply for this horse's races.
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 10.8% of 8,837 runs since Jan 2008 (784 horses).
Strongest on good to firm going: 15.1% from 119.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Firm | 119 | 18 | 15.1% | +4.3 | — |
| Good | 2,959 | 377 | 12.7% | +1.9 | 0 from 2 |
| Good to Soft | 1,802 | 178 | 9.9% | −0.9 | 1 from 9 |
| Soft | 2,734 | 257 | 9.4% | −1.4 | 3 from 11 |
| Heavy | 1,213 | 124 | 10.2% | −0.6 | 0 from 4 |
| Standard (AW) | 10 | 1 | 10% | −0.8 | — |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m – 1m1f | 5 | 0 | 0% | −10.8 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 16 | 0 | 0% | −10.8 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 2,040 | 199 | 9.8% | −1 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 3,197 | 322 | 10.1% | −0.7 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 2,813 | 339 | 12.1% | +1.3 | 3 from 14 |
| Over 3m | 766 | 95 | 12.4% | +1.6 | 1 from 12 |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 21 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
4 siblings in the archive, 0 winners.
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ballybrowneybridge (IRE) | 8 | 0 | — | — |
| Wakey Wakey Man (IRE) | 14 | 0 | — | — |
| Bowler Jack (IRE) | 10 | 0 | — | — |
| Hey Mama Rock Me (IRE) | 6 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft | 11 | 3 | 27% | +9.50 |
| Good to Soft | 9 | 1 | 11% | −5.75 |
| Heavy | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Good | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 1 | 8 | 1 | 13% | −3.50 |
| Class 4 | 7 | 1 | 14% | −3.75 |
| Class 3 | 7 | 1 | 14% | +2.00 |
| Class 2 | 4 | 1 | 25% | +3.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newbury | 5 | 1 | 20% | −1.75 |
| Bangor-on-Dee | 4 | 1 | 25% | +3.00 |
| Haydock | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Warwick | 3 | 1 | 33% | +1.50 |
| Exeter | 2 | 1 | 50% | +7.00 |
| Southwell | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Lingfield | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Uttoxeter | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Cheltenham | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Sandown | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Ayr | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Market Rasen | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2m5f – 3m | 14 | 3 | 21% | +5.25 |
| Over 3m | 12 | 1 | 8% | −7.50 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Cannon | 20 | 3 | 15% | +0.50 |
| Wayne Hutchinson | 4 | 1 | 25% | −0.75 |
| Jonathan Burke | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Aidan Coleman | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 14 | 4 | 29% | +9.75 |
| Cheekpieces | 11 | 0 | 0% | −11.00 |
| Visor | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| 2023 | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| 2022 | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| 2021 | 5 | 1 | 20% | −0.50 |
| 2020 | 2 | 1 | 50% | +5.00 |
| 2019 | 6 | 2 | 33% | +6.25 |
| 2018 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Type | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase | 21 | 3 | 14% | −0.50 |
| Hurdle | 5 | 1 | 20% | −1.75 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
Quick answers
- How many races has Notachance (IRE) won?
- Notachance (IRE) won 4 of 26 archived starts between 2018 and 2024, a strike rate of 15.4%. Placed 11 times in total (42.3% of starts).
- Who trained Notachance (IRE)?
- Notachance (IRE) was trained by Alan King on the most recent run on record, at Bangor-on-Dee on 28 February 2024.
- Who is Notachance (IRE)'s sire?
- Notachance (IRE) is by Mahler (GB) out of Ballybrowney Hall (IRE), whose sire is Saddlers' Hall.
- What going does Notachance (IRE) prefer?
- Notachance (IRE) has the best record on soft going: 3 wins from 11 starts (27.3%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Notachance (IRE)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 117, from the run on 28 February 2024. The highest on record is 146.
- What is Notachance (IRE)'s sire's record?
- Mahler (GB)'s progeny in our archive have won 10.8% of 8,837 runs since Jan 2008 (784 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest on good to firm going: 15.1% from 119.
- Who are Notachance (IRE)'s siblings?
- Out of Ballybrowney Hall (IRE), Notachance (IRE) has 4 other produce in our archive, 0 of them winners. As at Oct 2026.