Aidan Coleman
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 80 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 19% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.01). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 23% (90 rides).
It is weakest at Cheltenham (2.9% over 35 rides) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 23.3% (n=90, Fair A/E 0.98), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 10.9% (n=64, Fair A/E 1.37). Olly Murphy supplies 35% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (18.7%, A/E 0.83). The record reads poorly in Class 3 — 14.3% over 70 rides, 4.2pts below the baseline. 81 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Sun Racing Stayers' Hurdle at Cheltenham (Mar 2019, £182,878). The standout partner of the record: Paisley Park (IRE) — 10 wins from 21 rides together.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 18.5% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 18.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2006→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 8,099 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 8,099 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 23 December 2006 to 15 June 2023.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Aidan Coleman's strike rate?
- Aidan Coleman has won 70 of 379 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 18.5% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Aidan Coleman do best at?
- Cheltenham by strike rate: 1 wins from 35 rides (2.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Aidan Coleman ride most for?
- Olly Murphy, with 134 rides since 2022 — 35% of the total. That pairing has won 25 (18.7%).
- What is Aidan Coleman's Fair A/E?
- 1.01, from 379 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.