Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
8%+0.0
n=50 · A/E 1.51 · £1 −0.30
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
20%+12.0
n=5 · A/E 2.15 · £1 +6.60
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
6.1%−1.9
n=33 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −5.00
When favourite
0%
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
11.1%+3.1
n=9 · A/E 1.24 · £1 −4.10
Big fields · 14+ runners
14.3%+6.3
n=21 · A/E 3.59 · £1 +52.60
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
12.5%+4.5
n=24 · A/E 2.13 · £1 +43.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On Soft going9.8% vs 8% · n=51 · A/E 1.85
Over 2m1f – 2m4f9.2% vs 8% · n=76 · A/E 1.48
In Hurdle races8.3% vs 8% · n=72 · A/E 1.43
On first rides for the horse8% vs 8% · n=50 · A/E 1.51
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle7268.3%+32.90
Chase1417.1%−2.20
Flat200%−2.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft5159.8%+39.30
Heavy2913.4%−12.60
Good to Soft5120%+5.00
Good300%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Auteuil (FR)4748.5%+31.50
Compiegne (FR)13215.4%+15.20
Dieppe (FR)600%−6.00
Saint-Malo (FR)6116.7%+4.00
Senonnes-Pouance (FR)400%−4.00
Craon (FR)400%−4.00
Clairefontaine (FR)200%−2.00
Nantes (FR)200%−2.00
Pau (FR)100%−1.00
Lignieres (FR)100%−1.00
Vittel (FR)100%−1.00
Le Lion-D'Angers (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 124312.5%+43.00
Class 4400%−4.00
Class 2200%−2.00
Class 3200%−2.00
Class 5200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite300%0.00−3.00
2nd–3rd fav7114.3%1.17−2.10
4th–6th fav3139.7%1.35+2.40
7th+ in betting4736.4%2.15+31.40
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f7679.2%+40.70
2m5f – 3m1100%−11.00
1m5f – 2m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202216212.5%+0.50
202313215.4%+42.40
20241815.6%−6.20
20251100%−11.00
20263026.7%+3.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps22313.6%+51.60
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners3226.3%−3.80
11-13 runners2015%−15.10
5-7 runners1516.7%−5.00
14-16 runners11218.2%+39.60
17+ runners10110%+13.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 51 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
00141513002061700
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 15.9% of 3,240 runs since 2013 (500 horses). Strongest on Good going: 19.8% from 565. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.4% from 212. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 19.7% from 699. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 8.7% from 138.
Progeny have won 10.5% of 2,923 runs since 2011 (285 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.5% from 341. Weakest on Heavy going: 7.1% from 239. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.7% from 228.
Progeny have won 9.4% of 1,588 runs since 2012 (208 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.3% from 332. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 13.5% from 288. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6% from 134.
Progeny have won 10.4% of 734 runs since 2019 (125 horses).
Martaline (GB)0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 14.2% of 7,350 runs since 2008 (723 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.4% from 128. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10% from 120.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 209 · newest first
The latest 50 of 209 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 6 November 2016 to 5 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Antoine Coupu's strike rate?
Antoine Coupu has won 7 of 88 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Antoine Coupu do best at?
Auteuil (FR) by strike rate: 4 wins from 47 rides (8.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is Antoine Coupu in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 1 ride, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Antoine Coupu's Fair A/E?
1.35, from 88 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Antoine Coupu·SR 8%·A/E 1.35
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