Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 40 runners a season, winning with 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.08).
Deterministic profile computed from 213 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 8%
The read
Debutants struggle at 2.9% (n=34, Fair A/E 1.01). The yard also reads well off a 31-60-day break (12.5%, n=32) and on Heavy going (10.1%, n=99). The record reads poorly in Flat races — 2.4% over 42 runners, 4.6pts below the baseline. 48 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Prix Maurice Gillois GD Steeple-Chase 4 Ans at Auteuil (FR) (Nov 2010, £139,381). The stable star of the record: Gassin (FR) — 7 wins from 24 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.7%−0.3
n=60 · A/E 1.39 · £1 +6.70
New recruits · first run for the yard
12.5%+5.5
n=8 · A/E 3.12 · £1 +8.30
Debutants · first career start
2.9%−4.1
n=34 · A/E 1.01 · £1 +3.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
3.8%−3.2
n=26 · A/E 1.24 · £1 +11.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−7.0
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
9.1%
n=11 · A/E 0.40 · £1 −7.10
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8%+1.0
n=75 · A/E 1.41 · £1 +30.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
7.7%+0.7
n=26 · A/E 1.21 · £1 +13.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Off a 31-60-day break12.5% vs 7% · n=32
In Flat races2.4% vs 7% · n=42
With debutants2.9% vs 7% · n=34
On Heavy going10.1% vs 7% · n=99
With C&D winners10.5% vs 7% · n=57
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle126107.9%+74.90
Chase4548.9%−7.50
Flat4212.4%−38.10
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Heavy991010.1%+95.20
Soft8456%−35.90
Standard (AW)2100%−21.00
Good to Soft800%−8.00
Good100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Auteuil (FR)114108.8%+16.50
Compiegne (FR)5235.8%+13.90
Deauville (FR)1317.7%−9.10
Saint-Cloud (FR)1300%−13.00
Chantilly (FR)900%−9.00
Longchamp (FR)700%−7.00
Fontainebleau (FR)2150%+40.00
Clairefontaine (FR)200%−2.00
Dieppe (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 12627.7%+13.50
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite12216.7%0.75−2.60
2nd–3rd fav23417.4%1.24+0.20
4th–6th fav5735.3%0.71−21.90
7th+ in betting12165%1.58+53.60
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f160127.5%+29.90
1m5f – 2m2214.5%−18.10
1m2f – 1m4f1200%−12.00
1m – 1m1f1200%−12.00
2m5f – 3m6233.3%+42.50
6f – 7f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20227256.9%−24.60
20234824.2%−2.10
20245247.7%+34.20
20254149.8%+21.80
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1091211%+112.10
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners6058.3%+48.50
14-16 runners5846.9%+22.40
8-10 runners5623.6%−45.40
17+ runners29310.3%+3.20
5-7 runners10110%+0.60
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 52 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 52 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from F-H Graffard (2); 43 had their first archived run for this yard.
14 have since run for another yard, most often for Antoine Sanglard (3) and D Bressou (3); 38 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
061511400333480
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
286
Archived wins
48
Pattern / graded wins
£12.2m
Prize money
2010
Best season · 34 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Kauto Stone (FR) — Prix Maurice Gillois GD Steeple-Chase 4 Ans (Chase) (4yo) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · Nov 2010 · Grade 1
£139,381
Lycaon De Vauzelle (FR) — Grande Course de Haies d'Auteuil (Hurdle) Auteuil (FR) · Jun 2005 · Grade 1
£95,745
Mail De Bievre (FR) — Prix Murat (Chase) (5yo+) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · Apr 2010 · Grade 2
Progeny have won 16.8% of 2,009 runs since 2008 (167 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 20.1% from 497. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.7% from 339.
Progeny have won 7.4% of 4,127 runs since 2008 (448 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.9% from 254. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 209. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 142.
Progeny have won 9.6% of 830 runs since 2008 (138 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6% from 199.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 2,613 · newest first
The latest 50 of 2,613 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 9 March 2005 to 29 November 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is J Bertran De Balanda's strike rate?
J Bertran De Balanda has won 15 of 213 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does J Bertran De Balanda do best at?
Auteuil (FR) by strike rate: 10 wins from 114 runners (8.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is J Bertran De Balanda's Fair A/E?
1.08, from 213 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
J Bertran De Balanda·SR 7%·A/E 1.08
KTB
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