Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Small sample — fewer than 30 runs in this window. Read the Ns before the percentages.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 20% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
22.2%+2.2
n=9 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −3.30
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
100%+80.0
n=1 · A/E 1.79 · £1 +0.50
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−20.0
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
50%
n=4 · A/E 1.68 · £1 +1.70
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
25%+5.0
n=8 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −2.30
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−20.0
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 20% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft4125%+0.20
Standard (AW)4125%−2.50
Good to Soft100%−1.00
Heavy100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR)3133.3%−1.50
Saint-Cloud (FR)300%−3.00
Chantilly (FR)200%−2.00
Longchamp (FR)2150%+2.20
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite4250%1.68+1.70
2nd–3rd fav200%0.00−2.00
4th–6th fav200%0.00−2.00
7th+ in betting200%0.00−2.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f5120%−3.50
6f – 7f200%−2.00
1m – 1m1f200%−2.00
1m5f – 2m11100%+3.20
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20225240%+0.70
2023500%−5.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps4125%+0.20
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners4250%+1.70
11-13 runners300%−3.00
14-16 runners200%−2.00
5-7 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 9 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 8.3% of 2,639 runs since 2018 (160 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11.7% from 179. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 11.5% from 253.
Progeny have won 9.6% of 2,115 runs since 2021 (283 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.2% from 154. Weakest on Heavy going: 4.7% from 149. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 12.8% from 305.
Progeny have won 7.5% of 1,885 runs since 2020 (118 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.2% from 119.
Epaulette (AUS)0% · 0–1
Progeny have won 9.1% of 3,067 runs since 2017 (221 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4% from 173. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5% from 222.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 15 archived runs · newest first
Every one of Damien Provost's 15 archived rides, from 25 April 2007 to 10 August 2023, newest first — 4 winners among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Damien Provost's strike rate?
Damien Provost has won 2 of 10 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 20% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive. A small sample — fewer than 30 rides, so read the count before the percentage.
Damien Provost·SR 20%·A/E 1.10
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