Chance (GB)
Chance (GB) is a gelding who won eight of 43 starts with 16 places overall. Five of those wins came over 1m – 1m1f, two over 1m2f – 1m4f and one over 6f – 7f. He won the Prix du Chateau de Bagatelle at Longchamp on good to soft in Jun 2023 off a mark of 98, his highest ever, and also landed a Class 2 handicap at Lingfield in Jan 2022. He last ran when fifth of 16 at Deauville in Jan 2025.
- 8–43Wins / Runs
- 18.6%Strike rate
- 16 (37.2%)Placed
- −1.52£1 level staken=43 at SP
- 1.31Fair A/E n=43 · 1.14 incl. margin
- 98Highest OR
- 58dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 101
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was.
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 13 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 8 | 104B | 82 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 6 | 114A | 95.5 | — |
| Good to Firm | 3 | 123A | 76 | — |
| Heavy | 2 | 108A | 93 | — |
| Good to Soft | 2 | 92C | 80.5 | — |
| Soft | 2 | 87C | 81 | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 13 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m – 1m1f | 17 | 114A | 87 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 3 | 97C | 81 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 3 | 123A | 75 | — |
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 23 figures from 23 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style is derived from in-running commentary, which our data provider does not supply for this horse's races.
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 13.8% of 12,117 runs since Jan 2008 (1,097 horses).
Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.4% from 951.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | +8.4 | — |
| Good to Firm | 1,559 | 238 | 15.3% | +1.5 | 1 from 3 |
| Good | 2,740 | 382 | 13.9% | +0.1 | 2 from 8 |
| Good to Soft | 1,548 | 183 | 11.8% | −2 | 1 from 5 |
| Soft | 1,865 | 252 | 13.5% | −0.3 | 0 from 2 |
| Heavy | 707 | 83 | 11.7% | −2.1 | 1 from 2 |
| Standard (AW) | 3,678 | 530 | 14.4% | +0.6 | 3 from 23 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 475 | 71 | 14.9% | +1.1 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 3,583 | 510 | 14.2% | +0.4 | 1 from 6 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 3,569 | 513 | 14.4% | +0.6 | 5 from 33 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 3,263 | 466 | 14.3% | +0.5 | 2 from 4 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 951 | 89 | 9.4% | −4.4 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 243 | 23 | 9.5% | −4.3 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 32 | 1 | 3.1% | −10.7 | — |
| Over 3m | 1 | 0 | 0% | −13.8 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 13 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
4 siblings in the archive, 1 winner — best of them Haliphon (GB) (4 wins).
The wins came over 1m–1m6f; the highest grade won is Class 2 (Haliphon (GB)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haliphon (GB) | 58 | 4 | 1m–1m6f | Class 2 |
| Mineko (FR) | 2 | 0 | — | — |
| La Jonction (FR) | 2 | 0 | — | — |
| Haarlem (FR) | 5 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 23 | 3 | 13% | −0.30 |
| Good | 8 | 2 | 25% | −2.65 |
| Good to Soft | 5 | 1 | 20% | +2.60 |
| Good to Firm | 3 | 1 | 33% | −1.17 |
| Heavy | 2 | 1 | 50% | +2.00 |
| Soft | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 2 | 11 | 1 | 9% | −8.00 |
| Class 3 | 6 | 2 | 33% | +7.00 |
| Class 4 | 4 | 2 | 50% | +1.35 |
| Class 6 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +0.83 |
| Class 5 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deauville (FR) | 12 | 0 | 0% | −12.00 |
| Chantilly (FR) | 6 | 1 | 17% | +4.70 |
| Lingfield (AW) | 3 | 1 | 33% | +0.00 |
| Newmarket | 3 | 1 | 33% | +1.00 |
| Longchamp (FR) | 2 | 1 | 50% | +5.60 |
| Haydock | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Newbury | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Sandown | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| York | 2 | 1 | 50% | +1.25 |
| Ayr | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Kempton (AW) | 1 | 1 | 100% | +8.00 |
| Leicester | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Yarmouth | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Goodwood | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Nottingham | 1 | 1 | 100% | +1.10 |
| Chepstow | 1 | 1 | 100% | +0.83 |
| Southwell (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Chelmsford City (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m – 1m1f | 33 | 5 | 15% | −7.05 |
| 6f – 7f | 6 | 1 | 17% | −4.17 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 4 | 2 | 50% | +9.70 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian Provost | 9 | 2 | 22% | +9.30 |
| Jack Mitchell | 8 | 3 | 38% | +4.93 |
| James Doyle | 4 | 1 | 25% | +0.00 |
| Clement Lecoeuvre | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Christophe Soumillon | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Harry Burns | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Adam Kirby | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Ross Coakley | 2 | 1 | 50% | +1.00 |
| Augustin Madamet | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Pierre Bazire | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Anthony Crastus | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Mickael Barzalona | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Damien Provost | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Eddy Hardouin | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Hugo Boutin | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| William Buick | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Robert Havlin | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Ryan Powell | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Megan Nicholls | 1 | 1 | 100% | +2.25 |
| Frankie Dettori | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tongue tie | 19 | 2 | 11% | −0.70 |
| None | 10 | 3 | 30% | −2.82 |
| Cheekpieces | 8 | 2 | 25% | +4.00 |
| Hood | 5 | 1 | 20% | −1.00 |
| Tongue tie + cheekpieces | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| 2024 | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| 2023 | 12 | 2 | 17% | +6.30 |
| 2022 | 9 | 1 | 11% | −6.00 |
| 2021 | 5 | 1 | 20% | +4.00 |
| 2020 | 3 | 1 | 33% | +1.00 |
| 2019 | 6 | 3 | 50% | +1.18 |
| 2018 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
Quick answers
- How many races has Chance (GB) won?
- Chance (GB) won 8 of 43 archived starts between 2018 and 2025, a strike rate of 18.6%. Placed 16 times in total (37.2% of starts).
- Who trained Chance (GB)?
- Chance (GB) was trained by Markus Geisler on the most recent run on record, at Deauville (FR) on 24 January 2025.
- Who is Chance (GB)'s sire?
- Chance (GB) is by Lope De Vega (IRE) out of Harem Lady (FR), whose sire is Teofilo.
- What going does Chance (GB) prefer?
- Chance (GB) has the best record on good to firm going: 1 win from 3 starts (33.3%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Chance (GB)'s official rating?
- Chance (GB)'s highest official rating on record is 98.
- What is Chance (GB)'s sire's record?
- Lope De Vega (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 13.8% of 12,117 runs since Jan 2008 (1,097 horses), Flat and jumps together. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.4% from 951.
- Who are Chance (GB)'s siblings?
- Out of Harem Lady (FR), Chance (GB) has 4 other produce in our archive, 1 of them a winner. Most wins: Haliphon (GB) (4). Highest grade won: Class 2 (Haliphon (GB)). The wins came over 1m–1m6f. As at Oct 2026.