Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.1% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
5.6%+1.5
n=18 · A/E 1.82 · £1 −3.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−4.1
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−4.1
n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−4.1
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
7.1%+3.0
n=14 · A/E 1.91 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle2713.7%−19.10
Chase2214.5%−7.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft2700%−25.00
Heavy2229.1%−1.10
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR)20210%−1.10
Auteuil (FR)1300%−13.00
Compiegne (FR)1000%−10.00
Pau (FR)200%−1.00
Lyon Parilly (FR)200%—
Nancy (FR)100%—
Vichy (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 11417.1%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite200%0.00−2.00
2nd–3rd fav3133.3%2.41+3.90
4th–6th fav900%0.00−9.00
7th+ in betting3113.2%1.04−19.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f3313%−24.10
2m5f – 3m1317.7%−1.00
Over 3m300%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20221200%−10.00
20232314.3%−9.00
20245120%+1.90
2025700%−7.00
2026200%−2.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1400%−14.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners2100%−19.00
11-13 runners13215.4%+6.90
14-16 runners800%−8.00
17+ runners500%−5.00
2-4 runners100%—
5-7 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 23 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
330000·····00
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,832 runs since 2008 (707 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 818.
Progeny have won 7.4% of 2,572 runs since 2008 (261 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 11.9% from 286.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 1 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 86 · newest first
The latest 50 of 86 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 14 November 2008 to 6 April 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Josef Bartos's strike rate?
Josef Bartos has won 2 of 49 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 4.1% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Josef Bartos's Fair A/E?
0.85, from 45 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Josef Bartos·SR 4.1%·A/E 0.85
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