Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 3% of them.
Deterministic profile computed from 104 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 28 Oct 2026
The read
The market has consistently overbet the yard on Soft going: Fair A/E 0.27 across 67 runners (1.5% strike, −57.20 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Grand Prix De La Ville De Nice - Bernard Secly at Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR) (Jan 2023, £61,327).
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 2.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2%−0.9
n=51 · A/E 0.38 · £1 −42.20
New recruits · first run for the yard
5.6%+2.7
n=18 · A/E 1.23 · £1 −10.20
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.9
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.9
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−2.9
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
0%
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−2.9
n=15 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −15.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
4.2%+1.3
n=24 · A/E 1.44 · £1 −11.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On Heavy going5.4% vs 2.9% · n=37
At Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR)4.9% vs 2.9% · n=41
On Soft going1.5% vs 2.9% · n=67 · A/E 0.27
In Hurdle races3.8% vs 2.9% · n=53 · A/E 0.58
In Chase races2% vs 2.9% · n=51 · A/E 0.41
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle5323.8%−37.30
Chase5112%−36.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft6711.5%−57.20
Heavy3725.4%−16.10
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR)4124.9%−22.10
Auteuil (FR)2314.3%−15.20
Compiegne (FR)2200%−22.00
Dieppe (FR)600%−6.00
Fontainebleau (FR)300%−3.00
Pau (FR)200%−1.00
Lyon Parilly (FR)200%—
Clairefontaine (FR)200%−2.00
Nancy (FR)100%—
Vichy (FR)100%−1.00
Le Lion-D'Angers (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 12414.2%−11.00
Class 4200%−2.00
Class 3100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite400%0.00−4.00
2nd–3rd fav1218.3%0.55−5.10
4th–6th fav2314.3%0.58−15.20
7th+ in betting6111.6%0.56−49.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f7622.6%−59.30
2m5f – 3m2214.5%−10.00
Over 3m600%−4.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20222100%−18.00
20232713.7%−14.00
20241218.3%−5.10
20251915.3%−11.20
20262500%−25.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps3400%−34.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners3500%−34.00
11-13 runners3226.3%−12.10
14-16 runners2214.5%−14.20
5-7 runners800%−7.00
17+ runners600%−6.00
2-4 runners100%—
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 42 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 42 horses listed, 20 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Daniela Mele (4) and Davide Satalia (2); 22 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 41 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 3
Only 3 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
110006000·000
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,825 runs since 2008 (705 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 818.
Progeny have won 12.7% of 724 runs since 2008 (146 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 9.6% from 260. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 18.6% from 140.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 28 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 126 · newest first
The latest 50 of 126 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 25 June 2020 to 17 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Josef Vana Jr's strike rate?
Josef Vana Jr has won 3 of 104 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 2.9% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Josef Vana Jr do best at?
Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR) by strike rate: 2 wins from 41 runners (4.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is Josef Vana Jr in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Josef Vana Jr's Fair A/E?
0.51, from 99 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Josef Vana Jr·SR 2.9%·A/E 0.51
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