from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
1–9
Wins / Runs
11.1%
Strike rate
n=9
6 (67%)
Placed
0.60
Fair A/E
n=9 · 0.52 incl. margin
−5.00
£1 level stake
n=9 at SP · −55.6%
£9,610
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
100%
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Small sample — fewer than 30 runs in this window. Read the Ns before the percentages.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 11.1% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
0%−11.1
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−11.1
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
33.3%+22.2
n=3 · A/E 2.56 · £1 +1.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
11.1%+0.0
n=9 · A/E 0.60 · £1 −5.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−11.1
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase8112.5%−4.00
Hurdle100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft4125%+0.00
Good to Soft300%−3.00
Good200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Bangor-on-Dee100%−1.00
Southwell100%−1.00
Warwick100%−1.00
Catterick11100%+3.00
Doncaster100%−1.00
Fakenham100%−1.00
Hereford100%−1.00
Kelso100%−1.00
Ludlow100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 55120%−1.00
Class 4300%−3.00
Class 6100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite100%0.00−1.00
2nd–3rd fav5120%1.04−1.00
4th–6th fav200%0.00−2.00
7th+ in betting100%0.00−1.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m600%−6.00
2m1f – 2m4f200%−2.00
Over 3m11100%+3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2023800%−8.00
202411100%+3.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps100%−1.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
5-7 runners500%−5.00
11-13 runners2150%+2.00
17+ runners100%−1.00
8-10 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.