No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.7% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
13.3%+3.6
n=15 · A/E 1.99 · £1 +5.50
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−9.7
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
33.3%+23.6
n=3 · A/E 7.19 · £1 +6.50
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
8%−1.7
n=25 · A/E 1.27 · £1 −7.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
7.1%−2.6
n=14 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −3.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat28310.7%+1.00
NH Flat300%−3.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good to Firm1616.3%−6.50
Good10220%+9.50
Good to Soft300%−3.00
Soft100%−1.00
Standard (AW)100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Catterick600%−6.00
Beverley300%−3.00
Haydock300%−3.00
Pontefract2150%+6.50
Redcar2150%+9.00
Newcastle200%−2.00
Carlisle200%−2.00
Leicester200%−2.00
Warwick100%−1.00
Newmarket11100%+8.50
Newbury100%−1.00
Musselburgh100%−1.00
Wetherby100%−1.00
Southwell (AW)100%−1.00
Thirsk100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 62015%−9.00
Class 511218.2%+7.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite400%0.00−4.00
2nd–3rd fav400%0.00−4.00
4th–6th fav5240%4.73+14.50
7th+ in betting1815.6%1.47−8.50
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f16212.5%+2.00
1m5f – 2m500%−5.00
6f – 7f500%−5.00
1m – 1m1f3133.3%+8.00
Under 6f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2008100%−1.00
20091300%−13.00
20107228.6%+11.00
2011300%−3.00
20137114.3%+4.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps28310.7%+1.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners1200%−12.00
14-16 runners1200%−12.00
8-10 runners5240%+13.00
17+ runners2150%+9.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 15 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
··0·5003311000·
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 2.5% of 321 runs since 2008 (42 horses).
Lujain (USA)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 8.3% of 1,688 runs since 2008 (99 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 4.6% from 108.
Averti (IRE)33.3% · 1–3
Progeny have won 8.6% of 1,137 runs since 2008 (79 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 3.6% from 110. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 13.6% from 140. Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 5.6% from 162.
Zieten (USA)33.3% · 1–3
Progeny have won 9% of 324 runs since 2008 (33 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6% from 100.
Compton Admiral (GB)0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 7.7% of 418 runs since 2008 (34 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.2% from 106. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 12.6% from 103.
Needwood Blade (GB)0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 7.9% of 2,746 runs since 2008 (187 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 31 archived runs · newest first
Every one of Mr Seb Spencer's 31 archived rides, from 25 November 2008 to 5 September 2013, newest first — 3 winners among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mr Seb Spencer's strike rate?
Mr Seb Spencer has won 3 of 31 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 9.7% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Mr Seb Spencer's Fair A/E?
1.30, from 31 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mr Seb Spencer·SR 9.7%·A/E 1.30
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