3:33 Redcar
A Class 5 handicap over nearly a mile at Redcar on good to firm ground brings together a compact field of seven modest performers. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched between 58 and 49, reflecting a race where little separates the runners on paper and where course knowledge and the first-time headgear applied to several could prove decisive. With the pace shape rated unclear owing to limited run-style evidence, the contest looks open and tactical, rewarding the horse best able to produce its effort at the right moment from the seven-furlong trip.
How the race shapes up
Pace shape is unclear with low confidence, as there is not enough run-style information across the field to form a reliable picture. Most runners have shown flexibility in their racing patterns, though Rajapour is usually held up and produces his effort late. The key question is whether the race will develop into a sprint for the line or if an even gallop materialises, leaving scope for those with proven course form or the benefit of first-time headgear to capitalise on any tactical nuances.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Nyman KTB Selection58/100Nyman is a fair performer who has run to form on his last two starts here without threatening to win.
- 2Amidst The Chaos58/100Fair performer who arrives in decent nick with form figures of 934212 and has already won twice this year.
- 3Rajapour57/100Rajapour is a modest performer who has shown enough consistency to be competitive at this level without winning for some time.
- 4Yafaarr55/100Modest performer who has won twice this year including over this trip.
- 5Criminal Shore54/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed little spark when fourth of six over 7f here last month.
- 6Bowood51/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning for some time and arrives here in ordinary form.
- 7Titainium49/100Modest performer who has won once in six runs here at Redcar.
The contenders
Nyman KTB Fit 58/100
Nyman is a fair performer who has run to form on his last two starts here without threatening to win. He acts on good to firm but has shown nothing better than modest form on it in just two tries, and he is 0-7 at today's trip despite one placing. The yard's solid record at Redcar offers some encouragement from stall 6. Trainer Roger Fell has an 11/78 (14%) record with this jockey and a 13% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.23 from 209 runs. Joanna Mason has a 9% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.85 from 146 rides. Dropping in class from a middle draw, Nyman brings recent course familiarity that could be important in a race lacking a clear pace profile.
Amidst The Chaos KTB Fit 58/100
Amidst The Chaos is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick with form figures of 934212 and has already won twice this year. He goes well on good to firm ground, with one win from three starts and two placings, and has scored over today's trip, though first-time headgear is now added after a mixed campaign. Trainer Nigel Tinkler has a 7% strike rate at Redcar from a big sample of 903 runs with an A/E of 0.88, suggesting this one will need to improve on what has been seen so far. Lewis Edmunds teams up with a 32/235 (14%) record between them carrying an A/E of 1.13. The lack of course form is the main negative, yet the recent wins and suitability of conditions keep him firmly in the picture as one of the more consistent runners.
Rajapour KTB Fit 57/100
Rajapour is a modest performer who has shown enough consistency to be competitive at this level without winning for some time. He has run respectably in both visits to Redcar and the trainer’s solid 15% strike rate at the track adds some encouragement. First-time headgear is now reached for on good to firm ground where he has placed twice from six starts without winning. Usually held up, he produces his effort late, which may suit if the race lacks an obvious pace angle. David O'Meara and Mark Winn combine with an 11% strike rate from 489 rides and an A/E of 0.91, while the jockey’s 18% strike rate at Redcar from 62 rides with an A/E of 1.53 is a positive. From draw 7, his course placings suggest he knows the track well enough to feature.
Yafaarr KTB Fit 55/100
Yafaarr is a modest performer who has won twice this year including over this trip. He has won here from three visits and the yard’s 16% strike rate at the track is solid with a strong A/E of 1.73 from 25 runs. First-time headgear is the main unknown but the recent form is patchy and he has never won on firm ground, though he has placed once from three starts on good to firm. Sam England and Shane Gray have an 8/38 (21%) record together with an A/E of 1.40. Drawn in stall 1, his course success is a clear asset in a field where several others arrive with questions to answer, even if the headgear adds an element of uncertainty to his profile.
The rest of the field
Criminal ShoreKTB Fit 54/100
Criminal Shore is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed little spark when fourth of six over 7f here last month. He steps up to a trip he has won over before though the yard's solid 15 percent strike rate at Redcar offers some encouragement, while first-time headgear is another unknown on ground he has failed to handle in two previous tries.
BowoodKTB Fit 51/100
Bowood is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning for some time and arrives here in ordinary form. He has won at today's trip and handles good to firm ground, while the trainer's record at Redcar is respectable, though he has only one run at the track which was unplaced.
TitainiumKTB Fit 49/100
Titainium is a modest performer who has won once in six runs here at Redcar. He has two wins from five starts on good to firm and drops back to a trip he has tried only once before without success.
KTB verdict
Nyman is the KTB Selection. He has shown his best efforts of late over this course, bringing recent course form and the yard’s encouraging record at Redcar into play from a workable draw. While he has been no better than modest on good to firm, the drop in class and the lack of a clear pace leader could allow him to find the right spot. His main dangers are Amidst The Chaos, who brings the strongest recent form and trip suitability but needs to justify first-time headgear, and Rajapour, whose course placings and trainer’s local record make him a solid each-way contender if the late kick materialises. Yafaarr’s course win also demands respect in what remains a tight handicap.
KTB Selection Nyman
This is the narrative read of the 3:33 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest recent course form at Redcar?
Nyman has run to form on his last two starts here, finishing sixth and fourth.
How many runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Four runners are wearing first-time headgear: Amidst The Chaos, Rajapour, Yafaarr and Criminal Shore.
Which horse has won over the course and distance before?
Yafaarr has won here including over this trip.
What is the pace shape assessment for this race?
Pace shape is unclear with low confidence owing to not enough run-style evidence across the field.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Redcar among those represented?
Sam England has a 16% strike rate at Redcar from 25 runs with an A/E of 1.73.
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