4:17 Naas
This 1m2f84y handicap at Naas on good ground brings together an 11-runner field where most runners are rated in the fair-to-modest bracket. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Daler just edging My Girl Grace on 61 and 60 respectively, while the rest taper from 57 down to 33. With no obvious front-runner in a steadily-run, tactical affair, the race looks set to reward those who can position effectively and produce their effort at the right time.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of an obvious leader with medium confidence, pointing to a steadily-run race in which being handy will pay dividends. Most of the field, including all five principals, are held-up types who usually produce their effort late, so the early fractions are likely to be modest with the pace quickening in the straight. The key question is whether the race will develop into a sprint for the line or whether those who can get a relatively prominent position without using too much energy will hold the advantage in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Daler KTB Selection61/100Fair performer who has been consistent of late with placed efforts on his last two starts.
- 2My Girl Grace60/100Fair filly who showed useful promise when winning her sole start at this trip on debut.
- 3Genoah57/100Fair performer who has won three times at today's trip.
- 4Diamond Exchange51/100Diamond Exchange is a fair sort who has won twice this year yet has looked short of his best on his last two starts.
- 5Nakasero50/100Nakasero is a fair handicapper who has been consistent enough without winning for some time.
- 6Letiza48/100Modest performer who ran well when second at this trip last time out but has a patchy record overall.
- 7Enchanted Lady48/100Enchanted Lady is a modest performer who has shown only minor promise in four starts, finishing no better than fourth.
- 8Hamiyan46/100Hamiyan is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form at a lower level but has been well held in both starts this season.
- 9Pavilion End45/100Pavilion End is a fair performer who has been out of form for much of this year but showed a bit more when second at the latest attempt.
- 10Big Dispute37/100Modest performer who has been well held in two starts this season.
- 11Covert Legend33/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, finishing in the frame on his last four starts including two respectable efforts this year.
The contenders
Daler KTB Fit 61/100
Daler is a fair performer who has been consistent of late with placed efforts on his last two starts. He has course experience but showed little here last time, while the first-time headgear is an unknown that could help or hinder. The trainer has a solid 16% strike rate at Naas from a big sample of 768 runs and the jockey has a 9% strike rate at the track from 535 rides. He is placed four times from seven starts on good ground without winning, and his recent form reads -87123. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he steps out from draw 3 in a race where being handy can pay.
My Girl Grace KTB Fit 60/100
My Girl Grace is a fair filly who showed useful promise when winning her sole start at this trip on debut. She was well held in a stronger race last time but drops back in distance now having stretched out over further. The trainer has a solid 16% strike rate at Naas from a big sample while jockey Keane has a 17% strike rate at the track from 752 rides. With only one run on good ground yielding no win or place and no course form on record, she remains relatively unexposed at this trip. Typically settling in midfield, she steps out from draw 7 in what is likely to be a steadily-run affair.
Genoah KTB Fit 57/100
Genoah is a fair performer who has won three times at today's trip. Recent form is mixed with a second and a fifth in his last two starts but he has failed to place in seven runs on good ground. First-time headgear is now tried on his first visit to Naas where the yard has a 12% strike rate from 262 runs. The jockey has a 14% strike rate at the track from 223 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 9, he will need the new headgear to spark improvement if he is to figure in a steadily-run race.
Diamond Exchange KTB Fit 51/100
Diamond Exchange is a fair sort who has won twice this year yet has looked short of his best on his last two starts. He drops back in trip having won at this distance in the past and tries first-time headgear. The yard has a modest 9% strike rate at Naas from 1132 runs, which is a slight negative. He has one win from five starts on good ground with three placed efforts and ran sixth on his only previous visit to the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 8, he will need the headgear to help him bounce back.
Nakasero KTB Fit 50/100
Nakasero is a fair handicapper who has been consistent enough without winning for some time. He has shown some ability on this track and acts on good ground with one win from six starts and two placed efforts, though the first-time headgear is an unknown and he steps up in trip today having only placed once at this distance. The yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Naas from 470 runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 4, he makes the cut in a race where late efforts could be well suited to the expected pace.
The rest of the field
LetizaKTB Fit 48/100
Letiza is a modest performer who ran well when second at this trip last time out but has a patchy record overall. Only one previous run at Naas and that was poor, while the trainer's modest 6% strike rate here from a big sample adds little confidence. She stays this trip and has handled good ground in the past with two wins from 12 starts and five placed efforts.
Enchanted LadyKTB Fit 48/100
Enchanted Lady is a modest performer who has shown only minor promise in four starts, finishing no better than fourth. She has been tried over today's trip twice without success and the small sample makes her ideal distance still open to question. The trainer at Naas has a solid 10% strike rate from 214 runs while the jockey is 0-3 at the track.
HamiyanKTB Fit 46/100
Hamiyan is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form at a lower level but has been well held in both starts this season. He steps up in trip for the first time today and sports headgear for the first time, both of which pose fresh questions. The Weld yard has a 12% strike rate from 1281 runs at Naas.
Pavilion EndKTB Fit 45/100
Pavilion End is a fair performer who has been out of form for much of this year but showed a bit more when second at the latest attempt. He now drops back in trip to 1m2f which asks a fresh question while making his first start at Naas. The trainer's modest 8% strike rate here from a large sample adds no real encouragement.
Big DisputeKTB Fit 37/100
Big Dispute is a modest performer who has been well held in two starts this season. He has some course experience here and has placed twice on good ground from limited tries, yet the yard's poor record at Naas is a concern. Dropping back in trip raises a fresh question and the recent form offers little encouragement.
Covert LegendKTB Fit 33/100
Covert Legend is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, finishing in the frame on his last four starts including two respectable efforts this year. He drops back in trip having failed to make the frame in two previous tries at this distance and has shown no spark on good ground in three attempts. First-time headgear is now fitted and he makes his Naas debut while the trainer has only three runs here which is too small a sample to judge.
KTB verdict
Daler is the KTB Selection. He arrives in solid nick with placed efforts on his last two starts and the yard has a respectable record at Naas, while the first-time headgear could sharpen him up in a race where his held-up style may suit if the pace is steady. The selection will need to put a poor previous run here behind him but looks to have the best blend of current form and course knowledge. Main dangers are My Girl Grace, who showed real promise on debut at this trip and drops back in distance with Keane on board, and Genoah, who has won three times at the trip and now tries headgear on his first visit to the track.
KTB Selection Daler
This is the narrative read of the 4:17 Naas. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Naas racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is first-time headgear significant for several runners?
First-time headgear is worn by Daler, Genoah, Diamond Exchange, Nakasero, Hamiyan and Covert Legend; for each it is described as an unknown that could help or hinder.
How does the lack of a clear leader affect race tactics?
With the pace shape showing no one obviously wants the lead it is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays, and most principals are held-up types who produce their effort late.
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Naas?
G M Lyons has a 16% strike rate at Naas from 768 runs for both Daler and My Girl Grace, while M D O'Callaghan has 12% from 262 runs for Genoah.
Which runners have previous course form at Naas?
Daler has one run here when seventh, Diamond Exchange was sixth on his only start, Nakasero has two runs for a fourth and a tenth, Letiza was eighth, and Big Dispute was fifth.
How many of the principals have won at this trip before?
Genoah has won three times at today's trip, My Girl Grace won her sole start at this trip on debut, and Diamond Exchange has won at this distance in the past.
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