5:32 York
This Class 4 handicap over 7f at York on good to firm ground brings together an 18-runner field where the KTB numbers highlight a cluster of fair performers in excellent recent order at the head of the market. The top five in the Fit rankings are separated by just six points, underlining a competitive race in which several runners step up or drop in class while first-time headgear appears on no fewer than nine of the 18. Overall the KTB assessments point to a race that will be decided by a blend of proven ability at the trip, suitability of the surface and the ability to adapt to the steadily-run, tactical nature likely to unfold.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, suggesting a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy will pay dividends. Several runners are noted as usually held up and producing their effort late, including Misunderstood, Quest For Fun, Mister Sox, Lord Bertie and Ashen, which could leave those positioned closer to the pace with an advantage as the tempo remains modest. The key question is whether the prominent or midfield runners can dictate matters and hold off the late challengers in a race where positioning will be critical from the stalls.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Roaring Ralph KTB Selection59/100Fair performer who arrives in excellent order with three wins from his last five starts.
- 2Golden Strike59/100Golden Strike is a fair performer with solid recent form including a win here from two runs at York.
- 3Royal Accord57/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year with a 5-2-1-7-2 profile over the last five starts.
- 4Alpha Capture56/100Alpha Capture is a fair handicapper who has won both starts over this trip and at this track.
- 5Misunderstood53/100Misunderstood is a fair performer who has been consistent rather than progressive of late with form figures of 6-5767.
- 6Monsieur Bondy53/100Fair performer who won on his debut over this trip but has struggled since, finishing well beaten on his last three starts.
- 7Quest For Fun49/100Quest For Fun is a fair handicapper who has run well at this track in the past, winning twice from 15 starts here.
- 8Mister Sox49/100Mister Sox is a fair performer who has been a regular at York without ever troubling the judge in eight runs here.
- 9Jonny Concrete49/100Jonny Concrete is a fair handicapper who has run well at this track on his last two starts, finishing second and fourth.
- 10Lord Bertie47/100Lord Bertie is a fair handicapper who has been out of form this year with a string of poor efforts.
- 11Stratocracy46/100Stratocracy is a fair performer who has been consistent enough to place in two of his last three starts at this trip.
- 12Mr King45/100Mr King is a fair performer who has run five times here without winning but has been placed once.
- 13Jet Warrior45/100Modest performer who has been in decent form this year with three wins from his last six starts.
- 14Ashen43/100Ashen is a modest performer who has been consistent this year with form of 731342 and holds a solid record on good to firm ground including a win from two start…
- 15Fortamour41/100Fortamour is a modest 10-year-old who has shown little spark this year and finished no better than seventh in five runs at York.
- 16Orne40/100Modest performer who has shown bits of form here without winning in five runs.
- 17Invincible Ruby40/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year and arrives off the back of a win over 6f at Musselburgh.
- 18Intervention36/100Modest performer whose recent form of 400877 offers little encouragement.
The contenders
Roaring Ralph KTB Fit 59/100
Roaring Ralph is a fair performer who arrives in excellent order with three wins from his last five starts. He drops back to a trip he has won at four times from 24 attempts while the good to firm ground looks ideal given his record of three wins and three places from six starts on it. First-time headgear is the main unknown as he makes his York debut from stall 3. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at York with an A/E of 1.03 from 477 runs and the jockey matches that 10% strike rate with an A/E of 1.05 from 258 rides. His recent form figures of 112113 underline his current momentum.
Golden Strike KTB Fit 59/100
Golden Strike is a fair performer with solid recent form including a win here from two runs at York. He drops back to his winning trip of 7f today and tries first-time headgear, both of which look logical moves. The yard has a strong record at the track but this is unproven ground for him and the jockey's strike rate here is modest. Trainer and jockey combined show a 16% strike rate with an A/E of 1.02. His course win and recent figures of 122017 give him every chance of being involved.
Royal Accord KTB Fit 57/100
Royal Accord is a modest performer who has been in and out this year with a 5-2-1-7-2 profile over the last five starts. He steps up from 6f to 7f for the first time in a while yet has already won at today's trip. The trainer strikes at 14% here with an A/E of 0.96 from 154 runs while the jockey is on 10% with an A/E of 0.88 from 512 rides. He has won twice from four runs on good to firm ground. Recent form of 52172- and a step up in class from draw 5 make him an interesting contender.
Alpha Capture KTB Fit 56/100
Alpha Capture is a fair handicapper who has won both starts over this trip and at this track. He has been in decent form this season with two wins from his last six runs and handles good to firm ground with one win and three places from four starts. The first-time headgear is an unknown while the yard's modest record at York adds a note of caution with a 4% strike rate and A/E of 0.55 from 202 runs. The jockey has a 7% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.7 from 258 rides. His course win and recent form of 336212 keep him firmly in the picture.
Misunderstood KTB Fit 53/100
Misunderstood is a fair performer who has been consistent rather than progressive of late with form figures of 6-5767. He steps up to 7f for the first time since winning at the trip earlier in his career while the yard and jockey both have solid records at York. He has shown little on good to firm ground in two previous attempts though and the wide draw in stall 14 adds another question mark. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he will need the race to fall right in a steadily-run affair. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at York with an A/E of 0.78 from 1164 runs and the jockey is on 10% with an A/E of 0.86 from 856 rides.
The rest of the field
Monsieur BondyKTB Fit 53/100
Monsieur Bondy is a fair performer who won on his debut over this trip but has struggled since, finishing well beaten on his last three starts. He has shown he handles good to firm ground and acts at York, where both trainer and jockey have solid records. Trip looks suitable but the recent decline in form is a clear negative.
Quest For FunKTB Fit 49/100
Quest For Fun is a fair handicapper who has run well at this track in the past, winning twice from 15 starts here. He has also won at today's trip and is competitive on good to firm ground even if a win has proved elusive. First-time headgear is now fitted on a horse who has been out of the frame on his last three starts. Usually held up.
Mister SoxKTB Fit 49/100
Mister Sox is a fair performer who has been a regular at York without ever troubling the judge in eight runs here. He steps up from 6f to a trip he has won over before, though he is now 0-16 since that success and his recent form is ordinary. First-time headgear is tried on ground he handles, but the yard's modest 6% strike-rate at the track is a negative. Usually held up.
Jonny ConcreteKTB Fit 49/100
Jonny Concrete is a fair handicapper who has run well at this track on his last two starts, finishing second and fourth. He steps up to 7f for the first time today having already won twice at the trip, and he has placed three times from six runs on good to firm ground. The yard's modest 3% strike rate at York and the jockey's 0% record from 27 rides are both negatives, though the first-time headgear adds an unknown.
Lord BertieKTB Fit 47/100
Lord Bertie is a fair handicapper who has been out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. He has run only once at York and the trainer's modest 7% strike-rate here from a huge sample offers little encouragement. First-time headgear is tried as he steps up to 7f where he has won in the past though he remains unproven on good to firm ground. Usually held up.
StratocracyKTB Fit 46/100
Stratocracy is a fair performer who has been consistent enough to place in two of his last three starts at this trip. He has shown some course familiarity with a sixth here last time but the wide draw in stall 15 is far from ideal on good to firm ground. The yard has too few runners at York to read much into while Joanna Mason's modest 5% strike rate at the track adds little encouragement.
Mr KingKTB Fit 45/100
Mr King is a fair performer who has run five times here without winning but has been placed once. He has won at this trip and is competitive on good to firm, though recent form is mixed and he now tries headgear for the first time. The trainer has a modest 2% strike rate from 59 runs at York while the jockey is on 4% from 248 rides at the track.
Jet WarriorKTB Fit 45/100
Jet Warrior is a modest performer who has been in decent form this year with three wins from his last six starts. He steps up to 7f for the first time today having been placed without winning at the trip before, while first-time headgear is now tried. Trainer has a 7% strike rate from 59 runs at York and the 3lb claimer has a solid 9% record from 47 rides here.
AshenKTB Fit 43/100
Ashen is a modest performer who has been consistent this year with form of 731342 and holds a solid record on good to firm ground including a win from two starts. He steps up to 7f today having already won at the trip from nine attempts which could suit him. The yard has a modest 5% strike rate from 398 runs at York while the jockey is still seeking a first success from 16 rides here and the horse makes his debut at the track. Usually held up.
FortamourKTB Fit 41/100
Fortamour is a modest 10-year-old who has shown little spark this year and finished no better than seventh in five runs at York. He has never won or placed on good to firm ground and steps up to 7f for the first time in a while having failed to trouble the judge at the trip in the past. The yard's modest record here adds to the negatives from stall 18.
OrneKTB Fit 40/100
Orne is a modest performer who has shown bits of form here without winning in five runs. Placed once on good to firm but is 0-7 at this trip overall and has been largely out of form this year. First-time headgear is now tried while both trainer and jockey have modest records at York.
Invincible RubyKTB Fit 40/100
Invincible Ruby is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and arrives off the back of a win over 6f at Musselburgh. Steps up to 7f for the first time in a while having won once at the trip previously so the extra furlong is an open question. Iain Jardine is operating at a 3% strike rate from 119 runs here while Andrew Mullen is on 3% from 252 rides.
InterventionKTB Fit 36/100
Intervention is a modest performer whose recent form of 400877 offers little encouragement. Has run four times at York without placing and the trainer's modest 5% strike rate from 195 runs at the track adds little confidence. Steps up to 7f today having won at the trip in the past though his last run was over 5f. Typically settles in midfield.
KTB verdict
Roaring Ralph is the KTB Selection. He arrives in excellent order with three wins from his last five starts, drops back to a trip he has won at four times and has an excellent record on good to firm ground. The first-time headgear is the main unknown on his York debut but the combination of current form, trip and surface make him the one to beat. Main dangers are Golden Strike, who has a York win to his name and drops in class, and Alpha Capture, who has already won over course and distance.
KTB Selection Roaring Ralph
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 24 Jul. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Roaring Ralph | 12/1 | 7Bet |
| Golden Strike | 8/1 | Midnite |
| Royal Accord | 28/1 | CopyBet |
| Alpha Capture | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Misunderstood | 8/1 | Bet365 |
| Monsieur Bondy | 40/1 | 7Bet |
| Quest For Fun | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Mister Sox | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Jonny Concrete | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Lord Bertie | 12/1 | 7Bet |
| Stratocracy | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Mr King | 10/1 | 7Bet |
| Jet Warrior | 30/1 | 7Bet |
| Ashen | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Fortamour | 22/1 | Midnite |
| Orne | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Invincible Ruby | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Intervention | 40/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 5:32 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its York debut while wearing first-time headgear?
Roaring Ralph, who has three wins from his last five starts and a strong record on good to firm ground.
How many runners in the field are trying first-time headgear?
Nine runners are fitted with first-time headgear: Roaring Ralph, Golden Strike, Alpha Capture, Quest For Fun, Mister Sox, Jonny Concrete, Mr King, Jet Warrior and Orne.
Which horse has won twice at York and is dropping in class?
Quest For Fun, who has won twice from 15 starts at the track and is competitive on good to firm ground.
What is the pace profile of Misunderstood and how does it relate to the race shape?
Misunderstood is usually held up and produces its effort late; in a race that lacks a leader and is likely to be steadily run, being handy is expected to pay.
Which horse has the best recent form at York among those without a course win?
Jonny Concrete, who has finished second and fourth on his last two starts at the track.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies