Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−5.2
n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −19.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.2
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.2
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−5.2
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−5.2
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
12%+6.8
n=25 · A/E 2.49 · £1 −5.60
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.2
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With a new jockey booking0% vs 5.2% · n=35
On Soft going9.1% vs 5.2% · n=33
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase24312.5%−4.60
Flat1800%−18.00
Hurdle1600%−16.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft3339.1%−13.60
Heavy1200%−12.00
Standard (AW)600%−6.00
Good to Soft400%−4.00
Good300%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Auteuil (FR)2214.5%−17.40
Compiegne (FR)13215.4%+0.80
Deauville (FR)500%−5.00
Dieppe (FR)300%−3.00
Chantilly (FR)300%−3.00
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)300%−3.00
Clairefontaine (FR)300%−3.00
Saint-Cloud (FR)200%−2.00
Orleans (FR)100%—
Longchamp (FR)100%−1.00
Amiens (FR)100%−1.00
Le Touquet (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1800%−8.00
Class 3200%−2.00
Class 4200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite100%0.00−1.00
2nd–3rd fav4250%3.40+5.60
4th–6th fav1616.3%1.08−7.20
7th+ in betting3600%0.00−36.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f2827.1%−13.20
2m5f – 3m10110%−5.40
1m – 1m1f900%−9.00
1m2f – 1m4f600%−6.00
1m5f – 2m300%−3.00
6f – 7f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2011300%−3.00
2012100%−1.00
2013300%−3.00
2017700%−7.00
20181317.7%−8.40
20197228.6%+6.80
2020200%−2.00
2021100%−1.00
2022200%−2.00
2023800%−7.00
2024200%−2.00
2025300%−3.00
2026600%−6.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1516.7%−6.20
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners18211.1%−8.40
11-13 runners1715.9%−8.20
14-16 runners1300%−13.00
5-7 runners700%−6.00
17+ runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 18 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 18 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from J-P Gallorini (2) and J-Y Artu (2); 10 had their first archived run for this yard.
4 have since run for another yard; 14 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0·5017000001100
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Soldier's Queen (FR) — Prix de l'Ile de Re (Chase) (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf) Compiegne (FR) · Apr 2019
£22,703
Soldier's Queen (FR) — Prix d'Abbeville (Chase) (Claimer) (5yo+) (Turf) Compiegne (FR) · Mar 2019
£9,946
Soldier's Queen (FR) — Prix Moncourt (Chase) (Claimer) (5yo+) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · Oct 2018
Progeny have won 11.3% of 5,880 runs since 2013 (684 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.
Progeny have won 10% of 3,488 runs since 2012 (416 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.4% from 389. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 2.7% from 295. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.2% from 355.
Ultimately Lucky (IRE)0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 9.8% of 549 runs since 2008 (86 horses).
Progeny have won 10.2% of 1,072 runs since 2014 (142 horses).
Poliglote (GB)0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 15.6% of 4,224 runs since 2008 (417 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.8% from 234. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 19% from 691. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.1% from 196.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 61 · newest first
The latest 50 of 61 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 27 March 2005 to 28 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is D Grandin's strike rate?
D Grandin has won 3 of 58 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.2% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is D Grandin in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is D Grandin's Fair A/E?
1.21, from 57 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
D Grandin·SR 5.2%·A/E 1.21
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