Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceClaiming: 9.8%
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.5% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
9.4%−0.1
n=64 · A/E 1.18 · £1 +14.10
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−9.5
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−9.5
n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=6 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −1.40
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
9.8%+0.3
n=82 · A/E 1.28 · £1 +5.50
Big fields · 14+ runners
6.5%−3.0
n=46 · A/E 1.23 · £1 −23.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
At Deauville (FR)14.6% vs 9.5% · n=41
With Y Barberot12.2% vs 9.5% · n=41
On Standard (AW) going11.7% vs 9.5% · n=60
In Flat races9.2% vs 9.5% · n=87 · A/E 1.24
When claiming9.8% vs 9.5% · n=82 · A/E 1.28
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat8789.2%+0.50
Hurdle6116.7%+3.50
Chase200%−2.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)60711.7%+21.90
Soft1600%−16.00
Good8225%+7.10
Good to Soft600%−6.00
Heavy500%−5.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR)41614.6%+1.90
Chantilly (FR)2713.7%+12.00
Saint-Cloud (FR)10110%−4.40
Longchamp (FR)500%−5.00
La Teste De Buch (FR)300%−3.00
Auteuil (FR)200%−2.00
Lyon Parilly (FR)100%−1.00
Fontainebleau (FR)100%−1.00
Toulouse (FR)100%−1.00
Nantes (FR)100%−1.00
Compiegne (FR)100%−1.00
Dax (FR)11100%+8.50
Argentan (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 32150%+7.50
Class 4100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite6233.3%1.11−1.40
2nd–3rd fav15213.3%0.87−2.50
4th–6th fav26311.5%1.37+4.40
7th+ in betting4824.2%1.56+1.50
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f36411.1%−5.40
6f – 7f2528%+24.50
1m2f – 1m4f2129.5%−13.60
2m1f – 2m4f8112.5%+1.50
1m5f – 2m300%−3.00
Under 6f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20221119.1%+28.00
20238112.5%−5.20
20243725.4%−20.40
202530413.3%−0.90
20269111.1%+0.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps5048%−21.40
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners4337%−20.00
11-13 runners2314.3%+16.00
8-10 runners18422.2%+7.50
5-7 runners8112.5%+1.50
17+ runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 64 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
171325013018001708
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 8.5% of 1,218 runs since 2017 (146 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.8% from 105. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 12.7% from 102.
Elusive City (USA)16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 9.7% of 8,431 runs since 2008 (636 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.4% from 1,123.
Progeny have won 10.8% of 268 runs since 2020 (17 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 10 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 100 · newest first
The latest 50 of 100 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 10 June 2021 to 9 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Louis Nomis's strike rate?
Louis Nomis has won 9 of 95 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 9.5% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Louis Nomis do best at?
Deauville (FR) by strike rate: 6 wins from 41 rides (14.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is Louis Nomis in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 1 ride, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Louis Nomis's Fair A/E?
1.19, from 95 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Louis Nomis·SR 9.5%·A/E 1.19
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