4:40 Chepstow
A small but open-looking Class 4 novice for two-year-olds over the minimum trip at Chepstow on good ground. Only four runners line up, three of whom arrive with placed or winning form already in the book, while the newcomer Mrs Blue must be taken on trust. KTB’s numbers give a narrow edge to Minster Man on his light profile and recent win, though the race lacks depth and the pace shape is only tentative.
How the race shapes up
With two declared front-runners in Minster Man and Crazee In Havana plus Roxa Love who races prominently, the pace shape is likely to be on the front end early. Stall one should help Minster Man secure the rail and the lead if he is quick enough, but the evidence is limited and confidence in the shape is low. The key question is whether the leader can dictate a comfortable enough gallop to see off the prominent challengers over this sharp five furlongs.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Minster Man KTB Selection56/100Minster Man has shown fair ability in two starts, finishing second then winning over this trip on good ground.
- 2Crazee In Havana49/100Crazee In Havana has shown fair placed form over today's trip on her only completed start and brings a low-mileage profile.
- 3Roxa Love49/100Roxa Love has shown fair ability in two starts, finishing third then winning over today's trip.
- 4Mrs Blue46/100Mrs Blue is a first-time runner whose pedigree and sales background offer the only real clues.
The contenders
Minster Man KTB Fit 56/100
Minster Man has shown fair ability in two starts, finishing second then winning over this trip on good ground. Stall one could be an advantage at this track but he remains lightly raced overall. The yard has a modest 10% strike-rate here while the jockey's 11% record from many rides is respectable. Robert Cowell and Edward Greatrex combine with a 4/22 record at Chepstow that has produced an A/E of 1.58 and level-stakes profit of +£6.83. Dropping in class from his latest effort, he tends to make the running or race on the pace though that judgement is based on limited evidence. With a win already in the book on the surface, he holds the strongest claims on known form.
Crazee In Havana KTB Fit 49/100
Crazee In Havana has shown fair placed form over today's trip on her only completed start and brings a low-mileage profile. The yard posts a solid 19% strike rate at Chepstow from a big sample while jockey Finley Marsh records a 12% strike rate here. With only two career runs the picture remains incomplete and the going remains an unknown. Eve Johnson Houghton’s 19% record at the track from 225 runs carries an A/E of 1.12, giving the filly some support on stable form. She tends to make the running or race on the pace on the limited evidence available, which could see her contest the lead with Minster Man. That leaves her with questions to answer on the ground and the depth of her ability.
Roxa Love KTB Fit 49/100
Roxa Love has shown fair ability in two starts, finishing third then winning over today's trip. The form looks solid for the level though she remains with scope to improve. Boughey has a strong 25% strike rate here while Cosgrave's 11% from 131 rides is more modest. George Boughey and Pat Cosgrave team up with a 31/191 record that shows an A/E of 0.91 and a small level-stakes loss. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead with medium confidence in that assessment, she is drawn immediately outside the likely leader. Unproven on good ground, she still brings the most solid piece of winning form at the trip.
The rest of the field
Mrs BlueKTB Fit 46/100
Mrs Blue is a first-time runner whose pedigree and sales background offer the only real clues. The Ollie Sangster yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Chepstow from 22 runs while Stevie Donohoe sits on an 8% record from 138 rides here. With low data confidence and nothing on the track yet, her ability remains an open question.
KTB verdict
Minster Man is the KTB Selection. He arrives with a win over the course trip on good ground already to his name, has the plum draw in stall one to secure the early lead, and remains lightly raced with scope to progress further. His trainer-jockey combination has shown a positive A/E at the venue and he drops in class, all of which strengthens the case. Crazee In Havana and Roxa Love are the main dangers, the former bringing placed form and a strong yard record at Chepstow, the latter boasting the most convincing recent winning effort though both have ground questions to answer.
KTB Selection Minster Man
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 29 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Minster Man | 11/10 | William Hill |
| Crazee In Havana | 10/3 | Bet365 |
| Roxa Love | 9/4 | 7Bet |
| Mrs Blue | 16/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 4:40 Chepstow. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chepstow racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Chepstow results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won over the course and distance on good ground?
Minster Man, who won over this 5f16y trip on good going in his latest start.
What is the trainer strike rate at Chepstow for the yard of the selection?
Robert Cowell has a 10% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 0.55 from 20 runs.
Which runner is unproven on good ground?
Both Crazee In Havana and Roxa Love have no runs on good ground and remain unproven on it.
How does the pace shape look for this race?
Pace is tentative with low confidence; there is a possible front-runner but on thin evidence.
Which jockey has the highest number of rides at Chepstow among those declared?
Edward Greatrex with 149 rides at an 11% strike rate and A/E of 0.82.
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