Dylan's Chance (IRE)
Dylan's Chance is a gelding by Mount Nelson out of Lillando who failed to win in nine starts on turf between Apr 2024 and May 2025. He raced at six different courses without placing, recording his highest official rating of 92. All nine runs came over trips from 1m5f to 3m on ground ranging from good to heavy. His last run, at Listowel in May 2025, saw him finish 12 of 18 in the John Thomas McNamara Handicap Hurdle off an official rating of 85.
- 0–9Wins / Runs
- 0%Strike rate
- 0 (0%)Placed
- −9.00£1 level staken=9 at SP
- 0.00Fair A/E n=9 · 0.00 incl. margin
- 92Highest OR
- 38dBetween runs (median)longest 126 d
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 76
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 4 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft | 3 | 76A | 63 | — |
| Good | 2 | 73C | 68.5 | — |
| Good to Soft | 1 | — | — | — |
| Heavy | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 4 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 5 | 76A | 64 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 2 | 73C | 64.5 | — |
Of 9 runs looked at, 2 have no figure: obstacles omitted — the race ran a shortened course (2).
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 7 figures from 9 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 7 analysed runs since Sep 2024
- Held up 3 (43%) · 0 wins
- Prominent 2 (29%) · 0 wins
- Led 1 (14%) · 0 wins
- Mid-division 1 (14%) · 0 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 9.9% of 6,278 runs since May 2012 (538 horses).
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 30 | 2 | 6.7% | −3.2 | — |
| Good to Firm | 643 | 73 | 11.4% | +1.5 | — |
| Good | 1,680 | 150 | 8.9% | −1 | 0 from 3 |
| Good to Soft | 1,044 | 111 | 10.6% | +0.7 | 0 from 1 |
| Soft | 1,253 | 124 | 9.9% | 0 | 0 from 3 |
| Heavy | 453 | 51 | 11.3% | +1.4 | 0 from 2 |
| Standard (AW) | 1,175 | 113 | 9.6% | −0.3 | — |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 98 | 8 | 8.2% | −1.7 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 864 | 85 | 9.8% | −0.1 | — |
| 1m – 1m1f | 678 | 49 | 7.2% | −2.7 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 1,223 | 148 | 12.1% | +2.2 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 1,594 | 155 | 9.7% | −0.2 | 0 from 5 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 1,203 | 119 | 9.9% | 0 | 0 from 3 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 537 | 52 | 9.7% | −0.2 | 0 from 1 |
| Over 3m | 81 | 8 | 9.9% | 0 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since May 2012 · as at 4 Nov 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
6 siblings in the archive, 2 winners — best of them Earls Fort (IRE) (3 wins).
The wins came over 2m–2m4½f; the highest grade won is Class 4 (Earls Fort (IRE)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earls Fort (IRE) | 20 | 3 | 2m3½f–2m4½f | Class 4 |
| Dasmyhoss (IRE) | 55 | 2 | 2m | — |
| Castle Canny (IRE) | 12 | 0 | — | — |
| Kalandisi (IRE) | 1 | 0 | — | — |
| Crow Tree (IRE) | 1 | 0 | — | — |
| Lilyfit (IRE) | 1 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Soft | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Heavy | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Good to Soft | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Limerick | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Listowel | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Downpatrick | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Clonmel | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Tramore | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Tipperary | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G B Noonan | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Richard Deegan | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Tom Kelly | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Tiernan Power Roche | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 8 | 0 | 0% | −8.00 |
| Hood | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| 2024 | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · 3 runs | ||||||||||
| 31 May 25+8d | Listowel | John Thomas McNamara Handicap Hurdle (0-100) Held up at the back - down in 13th after the 6th making no headway - dropped away entering the straight | 12/18 | 3¼ | 10-8 | 85 | 73C | 80C | G B Noonan | 50/1 |
| 23 May 25+85d | Downpatrick | Down Royal Corporation Of Horse Breeders Handicap Hurdle (0-100) Went straight to front - drifted markedly off a true line at the fences - swung sharply left and parted company with rider at the 5th | UR/9 | — | 11-3 | 85 | — | — | Richard Deegan | 18/1 |
| 27 Feb 25+62d | Clonmel | Clonmel Novice Handicap Hurdle Sat close to the pace early - edged forward to share the front around halfway - dropped away entering the straight and had nothing left late | 15/15 | 4 | 10-0 | 89 | — | 82C | G B Noonan | 50/1 |
| 2024 · 6 runs | ||||||||||
| 27 Dec 24+38d | Limerick | Roche's Feeds Handicap Hurdle (80-102) Sat close to the pace early on eager for gain - 5th at halfway - driven but making no headway into the straight - dropped away and beaten a long way home | 15/18 | 2½ | 11-3 | 91 | 28C | 86C | Richard Deegan | 33/1 |
| 19 Nov 24+52d | Limerick | Limerick Races On Facebook Handicap Hurdle (80-95) (Div 1) Held up towards the back of the pack - improved into 6th before moving through after three out - up to 4th turning into the straight - unable to threaten the leaders and hit the second-last - couldn't quicken and held on level through the run-in - well held in 5th | 5/11 | 6½ | 11-7 | 92 | 76A | 89A | G B Noonan | 28/1 |
| 28 Sep 24+10d | Listowel | John Lynch Memorial Maiden Hurdle Held a midfield berth early - up to 5th four out but clipped the following fence - driven approaching the straight - had nothing more to give and dropped away - eventually well beaten in 13th | 13/17 | 1½ | 11-0 | — | 63B | 73A | Tiernan Power Roche | 250/1 |
| 18 Sep 24+126d | Tramore | Download The New Tote App Maiden Hurdle Held up towards the back - into 9th after the 6th - dropped away after 3 out - well held in 10th | 10/14 | 5½ | 11-10 | — | 64C | 86C | Richard Deegan | 100/1 |
| 15 May 24+26d | Tipperary | Tipperary Town Maiden Hurdle | 7/13 | 3¾ | 10-6 | — | 65C | 89C | Tom Kelly | 100/1 |
| 19 Apr 24 | Limerick | OCS Recruitment Maiden Hurdle | 16/16 | 2½ | 11-0 | — | 56C | 92C | Tom Kelly | 80/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Dylan's Chance won?
- Dylan's Chance (IRE) has yet to win, from 9 archived starts between 2024 and 2025.
- Who trained Dylan's Chance?
- Dylan's Chance (IRE) was trained by Eoin Christopher McCarthy on the most recent run on record, at Listowel on 31 May 2025.
- Who is Dylan's Chance's sire?
- Dylan's Chance (IRE) is by Mount Nelson (GB) out of Lillando (IRE), whose sire is Lando.
- What is Dylan's Chance's official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 85, from the run on 31 May 2025. The highest on record is 92.
- What is Dylan's Chance's sire's record?
- Mount Nelson (GB)'s progeny in our archive have won 9.9% of 6,278 runs since May 2012 (538 horses), Flat and jumps together.
- Who are Dylan's Chance's siblings?
- Out of Lillando (IRE), Dylan's Chance (IRE) has 6 other produce in our archive, 2 of them winners. Most wins: Earls Fort (IRE) (3). Highest grade won: Class 4 (Earls Fort (IRE)). The wins came over 2m–2m4½f. As at Nov 2026.