Skip to content
Jockey profile

Tom Kelly

197 rides in the last 5 seasons · 113 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride 5 days ago 100% of rides over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2019→)
from 1 Jan 2022
4–197
Wins / Runs
2%
Strike rate
n=197
26 (13%)
Placed
0.47
Fair A/E
n=197 · 0.37 incl. margin
−142.00
£1 level stake
n=197 at SP · −72.1%
£86,164
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
6%
KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 40 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 2% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.47).

Deterministic profile computed from 197 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming: 2.2%
The read

The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 0.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.30 and −96.00 to a £1 stake over 108 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. The rider also reads well over 2m5f – 3m (5.8%, n=52). The market has consistently overbet the rider over 2m1f – 2m4f: Fair A/E 0.00 across 82 rides (0% strike, −82.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
0.9%−1.1
n=108 · A/E 0.30 · £1 −96.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−2.0
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−2.0
n=35 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −35.00
When favourite
0%
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
2.2%+0.2
n=185 · A/E 0.51 · £1 −130.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
2.3%+0.3
n=128 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −88.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−2.0
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 2m5f – 3m 5.8% vs 2% · n=52
In Chase races 4.7% vs 2% · n=43
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 0% vs 2% · n=82
Over 1m5f – 2m 0% vs 2% · n=59
With horses switching code 0% vs 2% · n=36
With Eoin Christopher McCarthy 0% vs 2% · n=33
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 149 2 1.3% −121.00
Chase 43 2 4.7% −16.00
NH Flat 5 0 0% −5.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 59 2 3.4% −32.00
Good to Soft 55 1 1.8% −44.00
Good 54 1 1.9% −37.00
Heavy 29 0 0% −29.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Limerick 35 1 2.9% −24.00
Listowel 20 1 5% −3.00
Killarney 18 1 5.6% −3.00
Cork 16 0 0% −16.00
Clonmel 14 0 0% −14.00
Ballinrobe 13 0 0% −13.00
Kilbeggan 11 0 0% −11.00
Galway 10 0 0% −10.00
Punchestown 9 0 0% −9.00
Down Royal 7 0 0% −7.00
Tipperary 7 0 0% −7.00
Thurles 6 0 0% −6.00
Tramore 6 0 0% −6.00
Roscommon 5 1 20% +7.00
Sligo 5 0 0% −5.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 6 0 0% 0.00 −6.00
2nd–3rd fav 10 0 0% 0.00 −10.00
4th–6th fav 31 1 3.2% 0.49 −20.00
7th+ in betting 150 3 2% 0.86 −106.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
82.8% completed · 192 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 43 81.4% 4 0 4 0 0
Hurdle 149 83.2% 0 4 19 1 1
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Beau's Candle (IRE) 8 0 0 4 Jul 23
Brave Adam (IRE) 6 1 1 6 Apr 25
Approval (GB) 5 0 2 18 Oct 26
Tipp For Mac (IRE) 5 0 5 8 Aug 24
Arnacoeur (FR) 5 0 2 28 Aug 23
Dreamsrmadeofthis (IRE) 5 0 2 9 Jun 23
Midnight Maestro (GB) 5 0 0 29 May 23
Hermino (FR) 4 1 1 18 Oct 26
Coole Arcade (IRE) 4 0 0 13 Apr 25
Cosmic Rock (IRE) 4 0 0 1 Apr 24
Up The Club (IRE) 4 0 0 6 Jul 23
Lenjoleur De Palma (FR) 3 0 1 17 Oct 26
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 113 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 3
Only 3 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
000007003800
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardEoin Christopher McCarthy
17% of all rides
0% SR · A/E 0.00
TrainerRWSR£1
Eoin Christopher McCarthy 33 0 0% −33.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2019→
9
Archived wins
£173k
Prize money
2021
Best season · 4 wins
Nodoubtaboutthat (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms Ebf Mares Handicap Hurdle Galway · Jul 2021
£17,700
Hermino Aa (FR) — Bet With Tote.ie On Racing & Sports Connacht National Handicap Chase Roscommon · Jun 2026
£14,725
Millstream Lady (IRE) — Devon Inn Dan Sheehan Memorial Handicap Hurdle Listowel (IRE) · Sep 2026
£12,000
Notable horses
Midnight Maestro (GB) Brave Adam (IRE) Cosmic Rock (IRE) Political Stance (IRE) Millstream Lady (IRE) Hermino Aa (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Walk In The Park (IRE) 0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 13.4% of 7,040 runs since 2011 (707 horses).
Champs Elysees (GB) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,127 runs since 2013 (521 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 391. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.5% from 387.
Winged Love (IRE) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 10.9% of 3,965 runs since 2008 (296 horses).
Arctic Cosmos (USA) 14.3% · 1–7
Progeny have won 7.6% of 1,308 runs since 2017 (131 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11.3% from 194.
Brave Mansonnien (FR) 16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 10.3% of 300 runs since 2014 (35 horses).
Shirocco (GER) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 11.1% of 9,185 runs since 2010 (921 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 338 · newest first

The latest 50 of 338 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 12 April 2019 to 1 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
01 Nov 26 Cork (IRE) Man Down (IRE)T: Donncha Duggan Paddy Power 'I Still Call It Twitter' Handicap Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran UR 33/1
30 Oct 26 Down Royal (IRE) Sayitfirst (IRE)T: Darren Collins Metcollect Handicap Steeplechase16.5f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran 9th 22/1
25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Lengaruka (FR)T: Derek O'Connor Gerry Coyne Memorial Irish EBF Beginners Steeplechase22.5f · Soft To Heavy · 6 ran 6th 66/1
22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Sayitfirst (IRE)T: Darren Collins Suir Blueway Mares Steeplechase18.5f · Good · 5 ran 5th 40/1
18 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Hermino (FR)T: E McNamara BOYLE Sports JT McNamara Munster National Handicap Steeplechase (Grade 3)Class 1 · 24f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 6th 14/1
18 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Approval (GB)T: E McNamara Irish Wire Products (C & G) Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran UR 3/1
17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Calzaghi (IRE)T: E McNamara Greenpark Limerick Handicap Hurdle (Div II)21.5f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 9th 22/1
17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Political Stance (IRE)T: C Byrnes Greenpark Limerick Handicap Hurdle (Div I)21.5f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 1st 10/1
17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Lenjoleur De Palma (FR)T: E McNamara Master Chefs Handicap Hurdle17f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 4th 10/1
06 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Max Time (IRE)T: I Madden SIS Supporting Irish Racing Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Yielding To Soft · 11 ran 9th 100/1
05 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Drumadeise (IRE)T: P Corkery Fairyhouse Racecourse Handicap Hurdle24f · Good · 14 ran 5th 18/1
04 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Political Stance (IRE)T: C Byrnes Gleneagle Group Handicap Hurdle23f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 5th 12/1
04 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Run For Power (IRE)T: C Byrnes Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle17f · Good · 8 ran 5th 6/4F
02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Not So Proper (IRE)T: C Byrnes Racing TV Handicap Hurdle (Div I)20f · Good · 20 ran 19th 50/1
02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Golden Photo (FR)T: M K Flannery Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 20 ran BD 50/1
01 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Calzaghi (IRE)T: E McNamara Glenary Handicap Hurdle23f · Good · 15 ran 9th 12/1
28 Sep 26 Roscommon (IRE) Max Time (IRE)T: I Madden Railway Bar Handicap Hurdle20.5f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 12th 22/1
26 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Drumadeise (IRE)T: P Corkery Kathleen Walsh Memorial Handicap Hurdle22f · Good To Yielding · 17 ran 2nd 40/1
24 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Ehteyat (GER)T: M K Flannery Behans Horseshoe Bar, Restaurant & Townhouse Handicap Hurdle20f · Good · 15 ran PU 28/1
24 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Lenjoleur De Palma (FR)T: E McNamara Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle16f · Good · 13 ran 6th 6/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 17 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 2 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 18 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Tom Kelly's strike rate?
Tom Kelly has won 4 of 197 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 2% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tom Kelly do best at?
Limerick by strike rate: 1 wins from 35 rides (2.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is Tom Kelly in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 3 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Tom Kelly's Fair A/E?
0.47, from 197 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).