Iceberg Theory (IRE)
Iceberg Theory is a gelding with three wins from 16 starts on turf. He won the Kevin McManus Bookmaker Handicap Chase at Cork in Nov 2025 over 2m5f – 3m on soft ground off an official rating of 120, the Munster Drilling Beginners Chase at Limerick in May 2025 over 2m5f – 3m on good ground, and the Wesco Electrical Maiden Hurdle at Navan in Mar 2024 over 2m1f – 2m4f on heavy ground off an official rating of 114. Two of his wins came over 2m5f – 3m. He finished third of 11 in the Class 1 BOYLE Sports JT McNamara Munster National Handicap Steeplechase at Limerick in Oct 2026 off an official rating of 127. He has raced off a highest ever mark of 133.
- 3–16Wins / Runs
- 18.8%Strike rate
- 9 (56.3%)Placed
- −0.50£1 level staken=16 at SP
- 1.52Fair A/E n=16 · 1.24 incl. margin
- 133Highest OR
- 88dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 100
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 1 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft | 5 | 120B | 106 | 1 run · — |
| Good to Soft | 4 | 96B | 89 | 2 runs · 96 / 89 |
| Heavy | 3 | 146B | 120 | — |
| Good | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 1 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 5 | 146B | 120 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 4 | 109A | 99.5 | 2 runs · 100 / 91 |
| Over 3m | 2 | 96B | 89.5 | 1 run · — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 2 | 106A | 75 | — |
Of 16 runs looked at, 3 have no figure: did not complete (2) · obstacles omitted — the race ran a shortened course (1).
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 13 figures from 16 runs · as at 26 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 9 analysed runs since Oct 2024
- Mid-division 5 (56%) · 0 wins
- Prominent 2 (22%) · 1 win
- Led 1 (11%) · 1 win
- Held up 1 (11%) · 0 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 11.8% of 17,284 runs since Jan 2008 (1,595 horses).
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 38 | 0 | 0% | −11.8 | — |
| Good to Firm | 522 | 50 | 9.6% | −2.2 | — |
| Good | 4,056 | 442 | 10.9% | −0.9 | 1 from 1 |
| Good to Soft | 2,933 | 354 | 12.1% | +0.3 | 0 from 4 |
| Soft | 5,876 | 751 | 12.8% | +1 | 1 from 8 |
| Heavy | 3,817 | 449 | 11.8% | 0 | 1 from 3 |
| Standard (AW) | 42 | 2 | 4.8% | −7 | — |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m – 1m1f | 2 | 0 | 0% | −11.8 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 25 | 1 | 4% | −7.8 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 4,485 | 547 | 12.2% | +0.4 | 0 from 2 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 6,082 | 724 | 11.9% | +0.1 | 1 from 5 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 5,258 | 623 | 11.8% | 0 | 2 from 6 |
| Over 3m | 1,432 | 153 | 10.7% | −1.1 | 0 from 3 |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 31 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
3 siblings in the archive, 3 winners — best of them Peaky Boy (IRE) (4 wins).
The wins came over 2m–3m1f; the highest grade won is Class 2 (Peaky Boy (IRE)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peaky Boy (IRE) | 14 | 4 | 2m–2m4½f | Class 2 |
| No Anxiety (IRE) | 12 | 2 | 2m6½f–3m1f | Class 3 |
| Patty D (IRE) | 6 | 1 | 2m | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft | 8 | 1 | 13% | −1.50 |
| Good to Soft | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Heavy | 3 | 1 | 33% | +2.50 |
| Good | 1 | 1 | 100% | +2.50 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punchestown | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Cork | 2 | 1 | 50% | +4.50 |
| Limerick | 2 | 1 | 50% | +1.50 |
| Wexford | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Leopardstown | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Navan | 2 | 1 | 50% | +3.50 |
| Limerick (IRE) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Cheltenham | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Galway | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Fairyhouse | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2m5f – 3m | 6 | 2 | 33% | +4.00 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 5 | 1 | 20% | +0.50 |
| Over 3m | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Flanagan | 8 | 1 | 13% | −2.50 |
| Conor Stone-Walsh | 4 | 2 | 50% | +6.00 |
| Jordan Gainford | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Mr D G Lavery | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Aidan Kelly | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheekpieces | 10 | 3 | 30% | +5.50 |
| None | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| 2025 | 4 | 2 | 50% | +6.00 |
| 2024 | 4 | 1 | 25% | +1.50 |
| 2023 | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| Type | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurdle | 8 | 1 | 13% | −2.50 |
| Chase | 6 | 2 | 33% | +4.00 |
| NH Flat | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · 3 runs | ||||||||||
| 18 Oct 26+169d | Limerick (IRE) | BOYLE Sports JT McNamara Munster National Handicap Steeplechase (Grade 3) Racing in the pack from the outset - dropped towards the back when urged at the 11th - sluggish jumping at the following fence - 10th when a clumsy jump 3 out - promoted to 3rd after a rival came down then blundered 2 out - plugged on at the same speed to finish 3rd | 3/11 | 1¼ | 10-4 | 127 | 82A | 132A | Jordan Gainford | 6/1 |
| 02 May 26+53d | Punchestown | Palmerstown House Estate Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase (0-150) (Listed) Sat close up early - faded towards back through midfield by halfway and lagging by the 11th - soon backed off and pulled up | PU/21 | — | 10-5 | 129 | — | — | Conor Stone-Walsh | 10/1 |
| 10 Mar 26+107d | Cheltenham | National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Settled in the pack - improved into contention 3 out - knocked for room before 2 out while in fourth - couldn't find more approaching the last | 5/17 | hd | 11-0 | 133 | 96B | 127A | Conor Stone-Walsh | 13/2 |
| 2025 · 4 runs | ||||||||||
| 23 Nov 25+185d | Cork | Kevin McManus Bookmaker Handicap Chase Sat just behind the front group early - still 5th at halfway - pressed forward to challenge approaching 3 out - shared the advantage and hit the second-last awkwardly - hit the front soon after and stayed on well to the finish | 1/15 | 11-2 | 120 | 100B | 139A | Conor Stone-Walsh | 11/2F | |
| 22 May 25+66d | Limerick | Munster Drilling Beginners Chase Went straight to front early - lost place and slipped back to third then fourth after a handful of fences - regained third turning through the far side - jumped awkwardly three out - pushed for effort holding fourth - rallied into second two out - hit the front on the run to the line - found extra to prevail | 1/6 | 11-9 | — | 99A | 137B | Conor Stone-Walsh | 5/2 | |
| 17 Mar 25+44d | Wexford | BoyleSports Supporting Irish Racing Beginners Chase Held up in the back half - minor error 4th - 7th at halfway - urged forward approaching the straight - ran on strongly up the run-in to finish 2nd | 2/9 | 1¼ | 11-12 | — | 83A | 127A | Sean Flanagan | 9/2 |
| 01 Feb 25+56d | Leopardstown | Race And Stay At Leopardstown Handicap Hurdle (0-150) (Listed) Held up in the pack towards the back - bumped a touch at the 6th - found nothing more from the 8th and was eased off | PU/25 | — | 10-11 | 121 | — | — | Sean Flanagan | 20/1 |
| 2024 · 4 runs | ||||||||||
| 07 Dec 24+42d | Navan | Bective Stud, Tea Rooms & Apartments Handicap Hurdle (Listed) Held midpack on the rail early - pushed along and into 7th two out - up into 5th by the last but unable to threaten in front | 6/20 | nk | 10-6 | 121 | — | 129A | Sean Flanagan | 8/1 |
| 26 Oct 24+178d | Galway | W.B. Gavin & Co. Handicap Hurdle Settled midfield early - up to 5th after seventh - progressed into 3rd by final furlong marker - held on for minor placing without threatening front pair | 3/10 | 6 | 10-12 | 121 | 109A | 127A | Sean Flanagan | 13/2 |
| 01 May 24+39d | Punchestown | Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Hurdle Series Final | 6/17 | 5½ | 11-8 | 120 | 95B | 130A | Jordan Gainford | 22/1 |
| 23 Mar 24+85d | Navan | Wesco Electrical Maiden Hurdle | 1/6 | 11-12 | 114 | 146B | 139B | Sean Flanagan | 9/2 | |
| 2023 · 5 runs | ||||||||||
| 29 Dec 23+42d | Limerick | Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Maiden Hurdle | 3/10 | 1 | 11-12 | — | 120A | 120A | Sean Flanagan | 2/1F |
| 17 Nov 23+33d | Wexford | BoyleSports Maiden Hurdle | 2/12 | 2¾ | 10-13 | — | 85A | 122A | Sean Flanagan | 5/2 |
| 15 Oct 23+189d | Cork | Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Maiden Hurdle | 3/14 | ¾ | 11-10 | — | 120B | 134A | Sean Flanagan | 12/1 |
| 09 Apr 23+35d | Fairyhouse | Tattersalls Ireland George Mernagh Memorial Sales Bumper | 11/18 | 2¾ | 11-6 | — | 44B | 109A | Mr D G Lavery | 20/1 |
| 05 Mar 23 | Leopardstown | Ballinteer (Pro/Am) Flat Race | 3/7 | 4 | 10-10 | — | 106A | 119B | Aidan Kelly | 5/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Iceberg Theory won?
- Iceberg Theory (IRE) won 3 of 16 archived starts between 2023 and 2026, a strike rate of 18.8%. Placed 9 times in total (56.3% of starts).
- Who trains Iceberg Theory?
- Iceberg Theory (IRE) is trained by Paul Nolan, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 18 October 2026.
- Who is Iceberg Theory's sire?
- Iceberg Theory (IRE) is by Flemensfirth (USA) out of Joanne One (IRE), whose sire is Vinnie Roe.
- What going does Iceberg Theory prefer?
- Iceberg Theory (IRE) has the best record on heavy going: 1 win from 3 starts (33.3%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Iceberg Theory's official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 127, from the run on 18 October 2026. The highest on record is 133.
- What is Iceberg Theory's sire's record?
- Flemensfirth (USA)'s progeny in our archive have won 11.8% of 17,284 runs since Jan 2008 (1,595 horses), Flat and jumps together.
- Who are Iceberg Theory's siblings?
- Out of Joanne One (IRE), Iceberg Theory (IRE) has 3 other produce in our archive, 3 of them winners. Most wins: Peaky Boy (IRE) (4). Highest grade won: Class 2 (Peaky Boy (IRE)). The wins came over 2m–3m1f. As at Nov 2026.