What is Paul Nolan's strike rate?

Paul Nolan has won 95 of 1,151 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.3% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paul Nolan do best at?

Down Royal by strike rate: 7 wins from 31 runners (22.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Paul Nolan?

Sean O'Keeffe, with 256 runners since 2022 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 34 (13.3%).

Is Paul Nolan in form?

In the last 14 days: 15 runners, 0 winners, a strike rate of 0%. That is below the baseline of 8.3% since 2022.

What is Paul Nolan's Fair A/E?

0.93, from 1,151 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Paul Nolan

1,151 runners in the last 5 seasons · 158 individual horses

As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 7.0% of 301 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 20 Oct 2026.

Last runner 2 days ago 92% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

95–1,151

Wins / Runs

8.3%

Strike rate

n=1,151

300 (26%)

Placed

0.93

Fair A/E

n=1,151 · 0.75 incl. margin

−451.19

£1 level stake

n=1,151 at SP · −39.2%

£1.92m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

9.8%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 230 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.93). Horses in first-time headgear strike at 11% (82 runs, true-first definition). The yard is quiet just now — 0 winners in the last fortnight, below its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 1,151 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 8.5% 27.5% when favourite Sean O'Keeffe: 13.3% from 256 Sends off the favourite in 7% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Down Royal (22.6%, n=31) and Wexford (13.5%, n=163) — all clear of the yard's 8.3% baseline. It is weakest at Naas (1.9% over 53 runners) — the widest gap in the record. The market has consistently overbet in Group and Graded company the record: 5.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.64 and −69.75 to a £1 stake over 111 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Right now the yard is in a quiet spell: 0 from 15 runners in the last 14 days (0%, 8.3pts below the 8.3% baseline). Sean O'Keeffe rides 22% of the entries and beats the yard's average (13.3% vs 8.3%, A/E 1.31) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly off a 8-14-day break — 0% over 41 runners, 8.3pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Flat races: Fair A/E 0.40 across 91 runners (2.2% strike, −80.88 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 49 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap at Galway (IRE) (Aug 2006, £121,300). The stable star of the record: Moskova (IRE) — 9 wins from 35 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.3% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

8.5%+0.2

n=272 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −94.25

New recruits · first run for the yard

5%−3.3

n=20 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −11.00

Debutants · first career start

9.4%+1.1

n=106 · A/E 1.48 · £1 −21.34

First-time headgear · true-first definition

11%+2.7

n=82 · A/E 1.30 · £1 −35.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

4.2%−4.1

n=24 · A/E 0.49 · £1 −17.00

When favourite

27.5%

n=80 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −18.07

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

6.5%−1.8

n=356 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −179.78

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

5.4%−2.9

n=111 · A/E 0.64 · £1 −69.75

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Down Royal 22.6% vs 8.3% · n=31

Off a 8-14-day break 0% vs 8.3% · n=41

With Sean O'Keeffe 13.3% vs 8.3% · n=256

In Flat races 2.2% vs 8.3% · n=91

At Wexford 13.5% vs 8.3% · n=163

At Naas 1.9% vs 8.3% · n=53

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 749 66 8.8% −260.99

Chase 253 22 8.7% −108.82

Flat 91 2 2.2% −80.88

NH Flat 58 5 8.6% −0.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 450 42 9.3% −116.73

Good 239 20 8.4% −112.55

Heavy 232 13 5.6% −122.34

Good to Soft 212 20 9.4% −81.57

Standard (AW) 15 0 0% −15.00

Good to Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wexford 163 22 13.5% −4.82

Punchestown 133 8 6% −72.16

Fairyhouse 123 8 6.5% −64.19

Limerick 77 7 9.1% −15.50

Leopardstown 70 4 5.7% −39.50

Gowran Park 65 3 4.6% −44.17

Cork 60 8 13.3% −20.15

Naas 53 1 1.9% −47.00

Navan 51 4 7.8% −31.63

Galway 43 3 7% +9.00

Clonmel 42 4 9.5% −25.17

Down Royal 31 7 22.6% +2.85

Cheltenham 29 1 3.4% −16.00

Kilbeggan 26 2 7.7% −18.00

Listowel 25 1 4% −13.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 124 6 4.8% −82.75

Class 2 9 1 11.1% +4.00

Class 3 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 91 26 28.6% 1.04 −13.74

2nd–3rd fav 248 36 14.5% 0.92 −59.45

4th–6th fav 342 24 7% 0.95 −94.00

7th+ in betting 470 9 1.9% 0.71 −284.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

87% completed · 1,002 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 253 81% 13 7 28 0 0

Hurdle 749 89.1% 17 10 54 1 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Park Of Kings (IRE) 30 3 9 14 Oct 26

Sandor Clegane (IRE) 26 3 9 13 Oct 26

Conyers Hill (IRE)from S Curling 25 3 14 23 Sep 26

Hatfield Hammer (IRE) 24 1 7 8 Oct 26

Hms Seahorse (IRE)from A P O'Brien 21 4 10 11 Mar 26

An Peann Dearg (IRE) 20 2 5 23 Jul 26

Secrecies Of Stone (IRE) 20 2 5 22 Jul 26

Western Model (IRE)then Andrew Kinirons 20 1 6 13 Nov 25

Palamon (IRE)from Richard Hannon · then Dan Skelton 20 1 7 26 Oct 25

Ifiwerearichman (IRE) 19 3 6 26 Sep 26

Joyeux Machin (FR)then Dan Skelton 19 4 5 21 Sep 24

Felicity Smoak (IRE) 18 0 3 8 Oct 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 158 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 8 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 12 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from G M Lyons (2); 48 had their first archived run for this yard.

15 have since run for another yard, most often for Dan Skelton (6); 45 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

0 from 15 0% · −8.3pts vs baseline

Last 14 days0%

5-season base8.3%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

108109139478757

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderSean O'Keeffe

22% of all rides
13.3% SR · A/E 1.31

RiderRWSR£1

Sean O'Keeffe 256 34 13.3% +14.44

Sean Flanagan 181 23 12.7% −19.20

Richard Deegan 131 5 3.8% −103.84

Conor Stone-Walsh 86 3 3.5% −71.50

Jordan Gainford 54 4 7.4% −15.75

Eoin Staples 49 6 12.2% −16.02

James O'Sullivan 32 1 3.1% −21.00

Conor Smithers 31 2 6.5% +5.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

497

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£9.46m

Prize money

2006

Best season · 42 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Cuan Na Grai (IRE) — Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap Galway (IRE) · Aug 2006 · Grade A

£121,300

Joncol (IRE) — Hennessy Gold Cup (Grade 1) Leopardstown · Feb 2010 · Grade 1

£103,500

Latest Exhibition (IRE) — Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors '50,000 Cheltenham Bonus For Stable Staff' Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) Leopardstown · Feb 2020 · Grade 1

£88,500

Notable horses

Moskova (IRE) Noble Prince (GER) Cuan Na Grai (IRE) Solita (IRE) Arklow Ger (IRE) Joncol (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Walk In The Park (IRE) 12.8% · 14–109

Progeny have won 13.2% of 6,929 runs since 2008 (688 horses).

Affinisea (IRE) 16% · 8–50

Progeny have won 12.9% of 1,250 runs since 2008 (197 horses).

Flemensfirth (USA) 10% · 4–40

Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,274 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses).

Westerner (GB) 10.5% · 4–38

Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,823 runs since 2008 (941 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Elusive Pimpernel (USA) 9.1% · 3–33

Progeny have won 7.6% of 3,119 runs since 2008 (315 horses).

Jukebox Jury (IRE) 0% · 0–33

Progeny have won 13.5% of 2,217 runs since 2008 (251 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 10.3% from 155.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 5,523 · newest first

The latest 50 of 5,523 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 18 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

18 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Iceberg Theory (IRE)J: Jordan Gainford BOYLE Sports JT McNamara Munster National Handicap Steeplechase (Grade 3)Class 1 · 24f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 3rd 6/1

17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Poet's Duke (IRE)J: Eoin Staples #Thisisracing Maiden Hurdle19f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 7th 8/1

17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Tiger Island (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Follow Us On Instagram Maiden Hurdle17f · Yielding · 16 ran 4th 12/1

17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Slade Harbour (IRE)J: Jordan Gainford Follow Us On Instagram Maiden Hurdle17f · Yielding · 16 ran 2nd 12/1

15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Nicky Larson (FR)J: Dylan Browne McMonagle Isuzu Ireland Handicap14f · Yielding To Soft · 21 ran 19th 11/2

14 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) El Bilo (IRE)J: Mr S Cotter Matchbook €50,000 Graduation Series Flat Race16.5f · Good · 11 ran 8th 33/1

14 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Park Of Kings (IRE)J: Simon Torrens TRM Nutrition - No.1 In Europe, Trusted Worldwide Handicap Hurdle20f · Good · 13 ran 11th 100/1

14 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Thranduil (IRE)J: Ross Berry Matchbook €50,000 Graduation Series Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good · 15 ran 9th 125/1

13 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Sandor Clegane (IRE)J: Ross Berry William Hill Challenge Series Hurdle23.5f · Good · 5 ran 4th 7/1

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Le Moulin Rouge (FR)J: Sean Flanagan DragonBet Persian War Novices' Hurdle Race (Grade 2) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 10th 16/1

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Sageborough (FR)J: Sean Flanagan DragonBet 'Welsh Champion' Hurdle Race (A Limited Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 4th 33/1

08 Oct 26 Tramore (IRE) Moonlight Paradise (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Waterford Greenway Beginners Steeplechase20.5f · Yielding · 12 ran 9th 8/1

08 Oct 26 Tramore (IRE) Hatfield Hammer (IRE)J: Jordan Gainford Waterford Greenway Beginners Steeplechase20.5f · Yielding · 12 ran 6th 22/1

08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Sazerac Dance (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Welcome Back To Thurles Handicap12.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 14th 66/1

08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Felicity Smoak (IRE)J: Julian Pietropaolo Welcome Back To Thurles Handicap12.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 8th 11/2

02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Feel Like Ash (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Willis Towers Watson Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 4th 50/1

30 Sep 26 Sligo (IRE) Only For Our Man (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Frank O'Beirne Memorial Beginners Steeplechase26f · Good · 8 ran 1st 11/4F

27 Sep 26 Curragh (IRE) Belle Nuit (IRE)J: Mr S Cotter Kwiff Supercharged Betting (Q.R.) Handicap10f · Heavy · 18 ran 9th 28/1

26 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Ifiwerearichman (IRE)J: Alan O'Sullivan M.J. Carroll ARRO Handicap Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 6th 13/2

24 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Tackletommywoowoo (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Thorn Plant Hire Beginners Steeplechase22f · Good · 11 ran 8th 18/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Nolan's strike rate?: Paul Nolan has won 95 of 1,151 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.3% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Nolan do best at?: Down Royal by strike rate: 7 wins from 31 runners (22.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Paul Nolan?: Sean O'Keeffe, with 256 runners since 2022 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 34 (13.3%).
Is Paul Nolan in form?: In the last 14 days: 15 runners, 0 winners, a strike rate of 0%. That is below the baseline of 8.3% since 2022.
What is Paul Nolan's Fair A/E?: 0.93, from 1,151 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.