What is Aidan Kelly's strike rate?

Aidan Kelly has won 57 of 794 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.2% (as at 19 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Aidan Kelly do best at?

Wexford by strike rate: 5 wins from 42 rides (11.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Aidan Kelly ride most for?

Padraig Roche, with 133 rides since 2022 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (10.5%).

Is Aidan Kelly in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 8 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Aidan Kelly's Fair A/E?

1.04, from 794 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Aidan Kelly

794 rides in the last 5 seasons · 426 individual horses

As at 19 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 2 days ago 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2018→)

from 1 Jan 2022

57–794

Wins / Runs

7.2%

Strike rate

n=794

169 (21%)

Placed

1.04

Fair A/E

n=794 · 0.83 incl. margin

−209.75

£1 level stake

n=794 at SP · −26.4%

£1.07m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

9.1%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 160 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.04). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 13% (60 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 794 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 19 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Mar–Apr 19.6% when favourite Padraig Roche: 10.5% from 133 LTO winners: 13.3% Rides the favourite in 6% of races

The read

It is weakest at Cork (2.2% over 46 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 13.3% (n=60, Fair A/E 1.12). Padraig Roche supplies 17% of the rides and edges the rider's average (10.5% vs 7.2%, A/E 1.61) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well beyond 3m (12.5%, n=32). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 2.9% over 69 rides, 4.3pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider over 1m5f – 2m: Fair A/E 0.66 across 215 rides (3.7% strike, −147.88 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Kilmurray Group Midlands National Handicap Chase at Kilbeggan (Jul 2026, £60,000). Seasonally, the rider fires Mar–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.2% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

6.3%−0.9

n=410 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −117.60

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

13.3%+6.1

n=60 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −10.92

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

5.7%−1.5

n=192 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −47.50

When favourite

19.6%

n=51 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −21.37

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

6.8%−0.4

n=708 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −211.13

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.3%−1.9

n=449 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −168.04

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

4.4%−2.8

n=68 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −42.17

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With debutants 0% vs 7.2% · n=55

On last-time-out winners 13.3% vs 7.2% · n=60

At Cork 2.2% vs 7.2% · n=46

Over 1m5f – 2m 3.7% vs 7.2% · n=215

Beyond 3m 12.5% vs 7.2% · n=32

Off a break of 180+ days 2.9% vs 7.2% · n=69

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 600 39 6.5% −203.68

Chase 171 17 9.9% −12.07

NH Flat 22 1 4.5% +7.00

Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 326 22 6.7% −107.16

Good 185 17 9.2% −32.46

Heavy 146 7 4.8% −78.88

Good to Soft 137 11 8% +8.75

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Punchestown 107 7 6.5% +36.75

Fairyhouse 68 4 5.9% −26.00

Limerick 54 5 9.3% −27.88

Cork 46 1 2.2% −36.50

Kilbeggan 45 3 6.7% −6.00

Wexford 42 5 11.9% −10.15

Navan 40 3 7.5% −21.25

Naas 38 4 10.5% −13.26

Clonmel 36 2 5.6% −19.50

Thurles 32 3 9.4% −10.50

Downpatrick 31 2 6.5% −22.17

Galway 28 1 3.6% −20.50

Leopardstown 28 0 0% −28.00

Ballinrobe 27 4 14.8% +19.50

Roscommon 26 1 3.8% −23.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 73 3 4.1% −47.17

Class 2 4 1 25% +3.00

Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 65 13 20% 0.87 −22.25

2nd–3rd fav 101 16 15.8% 1.08 −12.00

4th–6th fav 197 19 9.6% 1.36 +67.50

7th+ in betting 431 9 2.1% 0.81 −243.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

84.3% completed · 771 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 171 73.1% 5 8 32 0 1

Hurdle 600 87.5% 9 2 62 0 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Whatcouldhavebeen (IRE) 20 2 5 20 Jan 26

Outside The Door (IRE) 17 2 5 30 Apr 26

Catchabird (IRE) 14 2 5 30 Apr 26

Walking On Glass (IRE) 14 2 4 16 May 25

One Horse Army (IRE) 12 2 3 20 Mar 26

I'm Flattered (IRE) 11 1 1 24 Jul 26

Fox Le Bel (FR) 11 0 8 25 Nov 25

Typical Thomas (IRE) 10 0 2 8 May 25

So They Tell Me (IRE) 9 1 2 2 Mar 26

Flicker Of Hope (FR) 9 3 4 1 Feb 25

Claude (IRE) 7 1 2 11 Oct 26

Luimneach (IRE) 7 2 3 5 Feb 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 426 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 8

Only 8 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

10699661068835

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardPadraig Roche

17% of all rides
10.5% SR · A/E 1.61

TrainerRWSR£1

Padraig Roche 133 14 10.5% −4.15

Jarlath P Fahey 55 3 5.5% −22.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2018→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.16m

Prize money

2023

Best season · 17 wins

Solitary Man (IRE) — Kilmurray Group Midlands National Handicap Chase (Listed) Kilbeggan · Jul 2026 · Listed

£60,000

Flicker Of Hope (FR) — Bective Stud, Tea Rooms & Apartments Handicap Hurdle (Listed) Navan · Dec 2024 · Listed

£59,000

Iroko (FR) — Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Mar 2023 · Class 2

£39,023

Notable horses

Outside The Door (IRE) Flicker Of Hope (FR) Walking On Glass (IRE) Whatcouldhavebeen (IRE) Catchabird (IRE) One Horse Army (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Flemensfirth (USA) 14% · 6–43

Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,274 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses).

Walk In The Park (IRE) 10% · 4–40

Progeny have won 13.2% of 6,929 runs since 2008 (688 horses).

Milan (GB) 15.4% · 6–39

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,843 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

Getaway (GER) 6.3% · 2–32

Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,912 runs since 2008 (1,026 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.7% from 131.

Mahler (GB) 8.3% · 2–24

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,836 runs since 2008 (784 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.

Westerner (GB) 0% · 0–23

Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,822 runs since 2008 (941 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 19 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 953 · newest first

The latest 50 of 953 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 7 September 2018 to 17 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Whatyouwant (IRE)T: Gerard Kyne Greenpark Limerick Handicap Hurdle (Div II)21.5f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 11th 28/1

17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Lennora (IRE)T: Daniel Joseph O'Leary Follow Us On Instagram Maiden Hurdle17f · Yielding · 16 ran 8th 200/1

14 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Magna Gee Gee (IRE)T: Patrick J Flynn Matchbook €50,000 Graduation Series Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good · 15 ran 15th 150/1

13 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Spellitoutforme (IRE)T: Padraig Roche William Hill Challenge Series Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 13 ran PU 300/1

13 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Mahzuz (IRE)T: Padraig Roche William Hill Challenge Series 3-Y-O Hurdle16f · Good · 9 ran 4th 250/1

11 Oct 26 Cork (IRE) Claude (IRE)T: Sarah Joanna Connell Friends Of Castlemagner LGFA Rated Novice Steeplechase17.5f · Good · 7 ran 1st 17/2

11 Oct 26 Cork (IRE) Ben Lomond (IRE)T: Gerard Kyne Kendellen Construction Handicap Hurdle18.5f · Good · 14 ran 12th 150/1

10 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Vairue (IRE)T: Ms Helen P Markham Protection & Prosperity Financial Services Supporting Louth GAA Handicap Hurdle16f · Good · 15 ran 4th 33/1

05 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Coppernpex (IRE)T: Padraig Roche Winter Festival Tickets On Sale Now Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 10 ran 8th 150/1

02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Magna Gee Gee (IRE)T: Patrick J Flynn Willis Towers Watson Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 8th 100/1

01 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Crossbar Getaway (IRE)T: James Andrew Fahey Derrinlaur Mares Handicap Hurdle19.5f · Good · 11 ran 11th 50/1

30 Sep 26 Sligo (IRE) Swing Time (IRE)T: V T O'Brien Brenda Anderson Memorial Handicap Steeplechase21f · Good · 15 ran PU 5/1

30 Sep 26 Sligo (IRE) Western Doyen (IRE)T: V T O'Brien Gracie's Bar Beginners Steeplechase17.5f · Good · 4 ran 4th 300/1

28 Sep 26 Roscommon (IRE) Watching The Clock (IRE)T: Padraig Roche Castlecoote Handicap Hurdle24f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 7th 6/1

28 Sep 26 Roscommon (IRE) Robindeepot (IRE)T: Jarlath P Fahey Kelly Hearing Specialists Mares Maiden Hurdle20.5f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran PU 300/1

25 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Turlough Abu (IRE)T: V T O'Brien Trant Goodwill Stakes Handicap Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 13th 150/1

25 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Down After Dark (IRE)T: S Curling John J. Galvin Maiden Hurdle18f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 12th 200/1

24 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Berto Ramirez (GB)T: Andrew McNamara Listowel Races Supporters Club Lartigue Hurdle (Handicap) In Memory Of John Molyneaux (Listed)Class 1 · 16f · Good · 13 ran 12th 40/1

23 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Magna Gee Gee (IRE)T: Patrick J Flynn McSweeney Brothers Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 16 ran 9th 200/1

20 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Tountinna (IRE)T: Maike Magnussen Kinisla Bloom Feeds Irish EBF Mares Handicap Hurdle18f · Good · 18 ran 16th 14/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Aidan Kelly's strike rate?: Aidan Kelly has won 57 of 794 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.2% (as at 19 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Aidan Kelly do best at?: Wexford by strike rate: 5 wins from 42 rides (11.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Aidan Kelly ride most for?: Padraig Roche, with 133 rides since 2022 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (10.5%).
Is Aidan Kelly in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 8 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Aidan Kelly's Fair A/E?: 1.04, from 794 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.