What is Aidan Kelly's strike rate?

Aidan Kelly has won 58 of 804 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.2% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Aidan Kelly do best at?

Wexford by strike rate: 5 wins from 42 rides (11.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Aidan Kelly ride most for?

Padraig Roche, with 135 rides since 2022 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (10.4%).

Is Aidan Kelly in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 7 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Aidan Kelly's Fair A/E?

1.05, from 804 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Aidan Kelly

804 rides in the last 5 seasons · 431 individual horses

As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 3 days ago 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2018→)

from 1 Jan 2022

58–804

Wins / Runs

7.2%

Strike rate

n=804

170 (21%)

Placed

1.05

Fair A/E

n=804 · 0.84 incl. margin

−214.25

£1 level stake

n=804 at SP · −26.6%

£1.08m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

9.2%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 160 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.05). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 15% (61 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 804 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 12 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Mar–Apr 19.6% when favourite Padraig Roche: 10.4% from 135 LTO winners: 14.8% Rides the favourite in 6% of races

The read

It is weakest at Cork (2.1% over 48 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 14.8% (n=61, Fair A/E 1.23). Padraig Roche supplies 17% of the rides and edges the rider's average (10.4% vs 7.2%, A/E 1.57) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well beyond 3m (12.5%, n=32). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 2.8% over 71 rides, 4.4pts below the baseline. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Kilmurray Group Midlands National Handicap Chase at Kilbeggan (Jul 2026, £60,000). Seasonally, the rider fires Mar–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.2% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

6.3%−0.9

n=415 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −122.60

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

14.8%+7.6

n=61 · A/E 1.23 · £1 −6.42

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

5.7%−1.5

n=194 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −49.50

When favourite

19.6%

n=51 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −21.37

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

6.8%−0.4

n=708 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −211.13

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.3%−1.9

n=454 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −173.04

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

4.4%−2.8

n=68 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −42.17

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Sarah Joanna Connell 16.7% vs 7.2% · n=30

On last-time-out winners 14.8% vs 7.2% · n=61

With debutants 0% vs 7.2% · n=56

At Cork 2.1% vs 7.2% · n=48

Off a break of 180+ days 2.8% vs 7.2% · n=71

Beyond 3m 12.5% vs 7.2% · n=32

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 607 39 6.4% −210.68

Chase 174 18 10.3% −9.57

NH Flat 22 1 4.5% +7.00

Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 327 22 6.7% −108.16

Good 186 17 9.1% −33.46

Heavy 147 7 4.8% −79.88

Good to Soft 144 12 8.3% +7.25

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Punchestown 108 7 6.5% +35.75

Fairyhouse 70 4 5.7% −28.00

Limerick 54 5 9.3% −27.88

Cork 48 1 2.1% −38.50

Kilbeggan 45 3 6.7% −6.00

Wexford 42 5 11.9% −10.15

Navan 40 3 7.5% −21.25

Naas 38 4 10.5% −13.26

Clonmel 37 2 5.4% −20.50

Thurles 32 3 9.4% −10.50

Downpatrick 31 2 6.5% −22.17

Galway 30 1 3.3% −22.50

Leopardstown 28 0 0% −28.00

Ballinrobe 27 4 14.8% +19.50

Roscommon 26 1 3.8% −23.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 73 3 4.1% −47.17

Class 2 4 1 25% +3.00

Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 65 13 20% 0.87 −22.25

2nd–3rd fav 104 17 16.3% 1.12 −9.50

4th–6th fav 198 19 9.6% 1.35 +66.50

7th+ in betting 437 9 2.1% 0.80 −249.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

84.5% completed · 781 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 174 73.6% 5 8 32 0 1

Hurdle 607 87.6% 9 2 62 0 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Whatcouldhavebeen (IRE) 20 2 5 20 Jan 26

Outside The Door (IRE) 17 2 5 30 Apr 26

Catchabird (IRE) 14 2 5 30 Apr 26

Walking On Glass (IRE) 14 2 4 16 May 25

One Horse Army (IRE) 12 2 3 20 Mar 26

I'm Flattered (IRE) 11 1 1 24 Jul 26

Fox Le Bel (FR) 11 0 8 25 Nov 25

Typical Thomas (IRE) 10 0 2 8 May 25

So They Tell Me (IRE) 9 1 2 2 Mar 26

Flicker Of Hope (FR) 9 3 4 1 Feb 25

Claude (IRE) 8 2 3 30 Oct 26

Luimneach (IRE) 7 2 3 5 Feb 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 431 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 7

Only 7 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

10699661068935

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardPadraig Roche

17% of all rides
10.4% SR · A/E 1.57

TrainerRWSR£1

Padraig Roche 135 14 10.4% −6.15

Jarlath P Fahey 55 3 5.5% −22.50

Sarah Joanna Connell 30 5 16.7% −1.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2018→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.17m

Prize money

2023

Best season · 17 wins

Solitary Man (IRE) — Kilmurray Group Midlands National Handicap Chase (Listed) Kilbeggan · Jul 2026 · Listed

£60,000

Flicker Of Hope (FR) — Bective Stud, Tea Rooms & Apartments Handicap Hurdle (Listed) Navan · Dec 2024 · Listed

£59,000

Iroko (FR) — Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Mar 2023 · Class 2

£39,023

Notable horses

Outside The Door (IRE) Flicker Of Hope (FR) Walking On Glass (IRE) Whatcouldhavebeen (IRE) Catchabird (IRE) One Horse Army (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Flemensfirth (USA) 14% · 6–43

Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,295 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

Walk In The Park (IRE) 9.8% · 4–41

Progeny have won 13.4% of 7,084 runs since 2011 (711 horses).

Milan (GB) 15.4% · 6–39

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,887 runs since 2008 (1,464 horses).

Getaway (GER) 6.3% · 2–32

Progeny have won 11.3% of 11,028 runs since 2016 (1,034 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.

Mahler (GB) 8.3% · 2–24

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,894 runs since 2014 (790 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.

Westerner (GB) 0% · 0–23

Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,872 runs since 2009 (946 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 963 · newest first

The latest 50 of 963 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 7 September 2018 to 9 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

09 Nov 26 Punchestown (IRE) Mahzuz (IRE)T: Padraig Roche Matchbook 50/50 Series 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran 7th 11/2

03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Shortt Fuse (IRE)T: Ms Helen P Markham William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle (Div I)20f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 14th 28/1

03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Mahzuz (IRE)T: Padraig Roche Winter Festival 28th & 29th November 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 4th 6/1

01 Nov 26 Cork (IRE) Vairue (IRE)T: Ms Helen P Markham Ballymaloe Foods Handicap Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 21 ran 19th 33/1

01 Nov 26 Cork (IRE) Kildinan Lass (IRE)T: Jonathan Sweeney Paddy Power 'Did You Watch The Breeders Cup At All?' Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 19 ran 6th 50/1

30 Oct 26 Down Royal (IRE) Claude (IRE)T: Sarah Joanna Connell Metcollect Handicap Steeplechase16.5f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran 1st 9/2

30 Oct 26 Down Royal (IRE) Whatyouwant (IRE)T: Gerard Kyne Eventsec Handicap Hurdle24.5f · Good To Yielding · 20 ran 7th 22/1

25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Elite Ocean (IRE)T: Thomas Cooper COLM QUINN BMW Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 8 ran 5th 80/1

25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Along The Way (GB)T: Eddie & Patrick Harty Brasserie On The Corner Handicap Steeplechase18f · Soft To Heavy · 13 ran 7th 33/1

22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Wing Back (IRE)T: S Curling Clonmel Oil Chase Day November 5th Handicap Steeplechase21f · Good · 15 ran 4th 7/1

17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Whatyouwant (IRE)T: Gerard Kyne Greenpark Limerick Handicap Hurdle (Div II)21.5f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 11th 28/1

17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Lennora (IRE)T: Daniel Joseph O'Leary Follow Us On Instagram Maiden Hurdle17f · Yielding · 16 ran 8th 200/1

14 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Magna Gee Gee (IRE)T: Patrick J Flynn Matchbook €50,000 Graduation Series Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good · 15 ran 15th 150/1

13 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Spellitoutforme (IRE)T: Padraig Roche William Hill Challenge Series Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 13 ran PU 300/1

13 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Mahzuz (IRE)T: Padraig Roche William Hill Challenge Series 3-Y-O Hurdle16f · Good · 9 ran 4th 250/1

11 Oct 26 Cork (IRE) Claude (IRE)T: Sarah Joanna Connell Friends Of Castlemagner LGFA Rated Novice Steeplechase17.5f · Good · 7 ran 1st 17/2

11 Oct 26 Cork (IRE) Ben Lomond (IRE)T: Gerard Kyne Kendellen Construction Handicap Hurdle18.5f · Good · 14 ran 12th 150/1

10 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Vairue (IRE)T: Ms Helen P Markham Protection & Prosperity Financial Services Supporting Louth GAA Handicap Hurdle16f · Good · 15 ran 4th 33/1

05 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Coppernpex (IRE)T: Padraig Roche Winter Festival Tickets On Sale Now Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 10 ran 8th 150/1

02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Magna Gee Gee (IRE)T: Patrick J Flynn Willis Towers Watson Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 8th 100/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 3 Nov 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · to 3 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Aidan Kelly's strike rate?: Aidan Kelly has won 58 of 804 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.2% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Aidan Kelly do best at?: Wexford by strike rate: 5 wins from 42 rides (11.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Aidan Kelly ride most for?: Padraig Roche, with 135 rides since 2022 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (10.4%).
Is Aidan Kelly in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 7 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Aidan Kelly's Fair A/E?: 1.05, from 804 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.