Justified Risk (IRE)
Justified Risk is a gelding by Kodiac out of an Urban Hunt mare. He ran five times between Jun 2024 and Jan 2025 without winning or placing. All four turf starts and his one all-weather run ended in defeat, with four efforts over 6f-7f and one at 1m-1m1f. His last run, at Dundalk (AW) in Jan 2025, saw him finish 7 of 7.
- 0–5Wins / Runs
- 0%Strike rate
- 0 (0%)Placed
- −5.00£1 level staken=5 at SP
- 0.00Fair A/E n=5 · 0.00 incl. margin
- 50dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed —
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 28 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 2 | 12C | 10.5 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 1 | — | — | — |
| Heavy | 1 | — | — | — |
| Good to Firm | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 28 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 4 | 35C | 19.5 | — |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1 | — | — | — |
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 5 figures from 5 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 3 analysed runs since Aug 2024
- Prominent 2 (67%) · 0 wins
- Held up 1 (33%) · 0 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 10.4% of 23,564 runs since Jan 2008 (1,665 horses).
Strongest on firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 147 | 21 | 14.3% | +3.9 | — |
| Good to Firm | 4,208 | 496 | 11.8% | +1.4 | 0 from 1 |
| Good | 5,161 | 548 | 10.6% | +0.2 | 0 from 2 |
| Good to Soft | 2,367 | 218 | 9.2% | −1.2 | — |
| Soft | 2,465 | 218 | 8.8% | −1.6 | — |
| Heavy | 683 | 68 | 10% | −0.4 | 0 from 1 |
| Standard (AW) | 8,533 | 872 | 10.2% | −0.2 | 0 from 1 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 5,124 | 591 | 11.5% | +1.1 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 11,600 | 1,187 | 10.2% | −0.2 | 0 from 4 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 3,886 | 393 | 10.1% | −0.3 | 0 from 1 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 1,933 | 182 | 9.4% | −1 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 696 | 66 | 9.5% | −0.9 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 254 | 18 | 7.1% | −3.3 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 60 | 4 | 6.7% | −3.7 | — |
| Over 3m | 11 | 0 | 0% | −10.4 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 27 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
3 siblings in the archive, 2 winners — best of them Havana Rum (IRE) (6 wins).
The wins came over 5f–7f; the highest grade won is Class 4 (Havana Rum (IRE)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Havana Rum (IRE) | 54 | 6 | 5f–6f | Class 4 |
| Littlepacer (IRE) | 6 | 1 | 7f | — |
| Armada Rising (IRE) | 1 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Standard (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Heavy | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Good to Firm | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curragh | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Dundalk (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Roscommon | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Killarney | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Davis | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Luke McAteer | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Gary Halpin | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| 2024 | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · 1 run | |||||||||
| 14 Jan 25+147d | Dundalk (AW) | Join Us On Instagram At dundalk_stadium Race Sat close to front group in 4th - given encouragement approaching halfway and again with 2f left - dropped away late finishing seventh | 7/7 | 15 | 9-5 | 35C | 27C | Luke McAteer | 125/1 |
| 2024 · 4 runs | |||||||||
| 20 Aug 24+10d | Roscommon | Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Handy early - dropped away inside first two furlongs - down the field turning in - beaten off well over a furlong out - finished last of the runners well beaten | 10/10 | 16 | 9-7 | -8C | 51C | Sean Davis | 200/1 |
| 10 Aug 24+26d | Curragh | Trainor Stone And Tile Irish European Breeders Fund Maiden Settled towards the back - ridden over 2f out and quickly fell out of contention | 13/13 | 2 | 9-7 | 30C | 49C | Sean Davis | 250/1 |
| 15 Jul 24+16d | Killarney | Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden | 9/9 | 14 | 9-7 | 12C | 50C | Sean Davis | 200/1 |
| 29 Jun 24 | Curragh | Barronstown Stud Irish European Breeders Fund (C & G) Maiden | 13/14 | 32 | 9-5 | 9C | 59C | Gary Halpin | 100/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Justified Risk won?
- Justified Risk (IRE) has yet to win, from 5 archived starts between 2024 and 2025.
- Who trained Justified Risk?
- Justified Risk (IRE) was trained by Sean Davis on the most recent run on record, at Dundalk (AW) on 14 January 2025.
- Who is Justified Risk's sire?
- Justified Risk (IRE) is by Kodiac (GB) out of Urban Hunt (IRE), whose sire is Born To Sea.
- What is Justified Risk's sire's record?
- Kodiac (GB)'s progeny in our archive have won 10.4% of 23,564 runs since Jan 2008 (1,665 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest on firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.
- Who are Justified Risk's siblings?
- Out of Urban Hunt (IRE), Justified Risk (IRE) has 3 other produce in our archive, 2 of them winners. Most wins: Havana Rum (IRE) (6). Highest grade won: Class 4 (Havana Rum (IRE)). The wins came over 5f–7f. As at Oct 2026.