Lightning Polka (GB)
Lightning Polka won the Tattersalls 40,000 EBF Fillies Novice Stakes at Haydock in Sep 2025 on good ground over 6f to 7f at Class 2 level. The filly has one win and one place from eight runs, all over 6f to 7f, with her sole success on turf. Typically held up, she finished 7 of 7 at Newbury in Aug 2026 off an official rating of 78.
- 1–8Wins / Runs
- 12.5%Strike rate
- 1 (12.5%)Placed
- −3.50£1 level staken=8 at SP
- 0.70Fair A/E n=8 · 0.60 incl. margin
- 85Highest OR
- 49dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 96
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 18 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Firm | 4 | 96A | 79.5 | 4 · 96 / 79.5 |
| Good | 2 | 93A | 87 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 1 | — | — | 1 · — |
| Soft | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 18 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 8 | 103C | 83.5 | 5 · 96 / 82 |
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 8 figures from 8 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 6 analysed runs
- Held up 4 (67%) · 0 wins
- Led 2 (33%) · 0 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 16.3% of 5,056 runs since Jan 2008 (559 horses).
Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7% from 157.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 4 | 2 | 50% | +33.7 | — |
| Good to Firm | 831 | 154 | 18.5% | +2.2 | 0 from 4 |
| Good | 1,217 | 199 | 16.4% | +0.1 | 1 from 2 |
| Good to Soft | 579 | 92 | 15.9% | −0.4 | — |
| Soft | 698 | 118 | 16.9% | +0.6 | 0 from 1 |
| Heavy | 213 | 36 | 16.9% | +0.6 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 1,514 | 224 | 14.8% | −1.5 | 0 from 1 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 382 | 60 | 15.7% | −0.6 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 2,111 | 372 | 17.6% | +1.3 | 1 from 8 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1,351 | 205 | 15.2% | −1.1 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 997 | 171 | 17.2% | +0.9 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 157 | 11 | 7% | −9.3 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 47 | 5 | 10.6% | −5.7 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | −5.2 | — |
| Over 3m | 2 | 0 | 0% | −16.3 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 18 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
4 siblings in the archive, 2 winners — best of them Light Refrain (GB) (3 wins).
The wins came over 6f–7f; the highest grade won is Group 3 (Light Refrain (GB)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Light Refrain (GB) | 11 | 3 | 6f | Group 3 |
| Distant Light (GB) | 7 | 1 | 7f | Class 5 |
| Bouquet De Paris (GB) | 7 | 0 | — | — |
| Gentle Light (GB) | 4 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Firm | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Good | 2 | 1 | 50% | +2.50 |
| Standard (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Soft | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Class 4 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Class 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Class 2 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +3.50 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newbury | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Newmarket | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Lingfield (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| York | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Ayr | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Haydock | 1 | 1 | 100% | +3.50 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kieran Shoemark | 4 | 1 | 25% | +0.50 |
| Tom Marquand | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Tom Eaves | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 5 | 1 | 20% | −0.50 |
| Hood | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| 2025 | 4 | 1 | 25% | +0.50 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 26+27d | Newbury | Christopher Smith Associates LLP Handicap Stakes Settled in rear but pulled hard early - dropped away over 2f out and faded into 7th | 7/7 | 13 | 9-6 | 78 | 69C | 45C | Tom Marquand | 15/2 |
| 18 Jul 26+14d | Newbury | British Stallion Studs EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap Stakes Free-going in behind - pushed forward 1f out - one-paced to the line | 4/6 | 1½ | 9-0 | 80 | 96A | 74B | Kieran Shoemark | 9/4F |
| 04 Jul 26+64d | Newmarket | Betway Launches Super Sub Handicap Settled just behind the pace - urged forward 2f out - angled right approaching final furlong - stayed on to take third close home | 3/5 | 2 | 9-0 | 81 | 82C | 79B | Tom Marquand | 9/2 |
| 01 May 26+178d | Newmarket | Close Brothers Fillies' Handicap Jumped awkwardly and lost ground at the outset - held up at the back of the field throughout - unable to make an impression and finished well beaten in 9th | 9/11 | ¾ | 9-2 | 83 | 77A | 63A | Tom Marquand | 4/1 |
| 04 Nov 25+24d | Lingfield (AW) | Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk Nursery Pressed to the front early - lost advantage momentarily on the turn - back in front 1f out - challenged and passed inside the final 110 yards - dropped away to finish third | 3/4 | 2 | 9-9 | 85 | 85C | 80B | Kieran Shoemark | 15/8F |
| 11 Oct 25+21d | York | Coral Rockingham Stakes (Listed) Went in front through the middle - driven when overtaken 2f out - dropped away under pressure in the closing stages | 10/13 | 1 | 8-12 | 85 | 81C | 74A | Tom Eaves | 7/1 |
| 20 Sep 25+15d | Ayr | Ladbrokes 'Get Rewarded With Ladbucks' Firth Of Clyde (Fillies' Group 3) Settled towards the back - pushed along with 2f left then found some late progress - unable to threaten leaders in the closing stages | 7/14 | hd | 9-2 | — | 103C | 88A | Kieran Shoemark | 11/2 |
| 05 Sep 25 | Haydock | Tattersalls 40,000 EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) Settled off the pace in the pack - roused into contention with two furlongs left - moved through to hit the front inside the final furlong and stayed on strongly for the win | 1/7 | 9-2 | — | 93A | 83A | Kieran Shoemark | 7/2 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Lightning Polka (GB) won?
- Lightning Polka (GB) won 1 of 8 archived starts between 2025 and 2026, a strike rate of 12.5%. Placed 1 time in total (12.5% of starts).
- Who trains Lightning Polka (GB)?
- Lightning Polka (GB) is trained by Ed Walker, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 14 August 2026.
- Who is Lightning Polka (GB)'s sire?
- Lightning Polka (GB) is by Night Of Thunder (IRE) out of Light Music (GB), whose sire is Elusive Quality.
- What is Lightning Polka (GB)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 78, from the run on 14 August 2026. The highest on record is 85.
- What is Lightning Polka (GB)'s sire's record?
- Night Of Thunder (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 16.3% of 5,056 runs since Jan 2008 (559 horses), Flat and jumps together. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7% from 157.
- Who are Lightning Polka (GB)'s siblings?
- Out of Light Music (GB), Lightning Polka (GB) has 4 other produce in our archive, 2 of them winners. Most wins: Light Refrain (GB) (3). Highest grade won: Group 3 (Light Refrain (GB)). The wins came over 6f–7f. As at Oct 2026.