Probable Cause (GB)
Probable Cause (GB) is 2 from 4, both wins coming at Class 5 level. Won last time out at Lingfield (Class 5).
Progeny in our archive
As a dam, Probable Cause (GB) has 1 produce in the archive, 0 winners.
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mucho Macho (IRE) | 1 | 0 | — | — |
- 2–4Wins / Runs
- 50%Strike rate
- 3 (75%)Placed
- +8.00£1 level staken=4 at SP
- 76Highest OR
- 19dAvg between runs
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 78
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 22 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Firm | 3 | 68C | 61 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 22 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 4 | 78A | 64.5 | — |
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 4 figures from 4 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style is derived from in-running commentary, which our data provider does not supply for this horse's races.
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 10.7% of 4,264 runs since Jan 2008 (268 horses).
Weakest on soft going: 6.2% from 357.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | +12.2 | — |
| Good to Firm | 734 | 99 | 13.5% | +2.8 | 1 from 3 |
| Good | 800 | 78 | 9.8% | −0.9 | — |
| Good to Soft | 369 | 34 | 9.2% | −1.5 | — |
| Soft | 357 | 22 | 6.2% | −4.5 | — |
| Heavy | 100 | 7 | 7% | −3.7 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 1,869 | 207 | 11.1% | +0.4 | 1 from 1 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 797 | 100 | 12.5% | +1.8 | 2 from 4 |
| 6f – 7f | 2,278 | 247 | 10.8% | +0.1 | — |
| 1m – 1m1f | 648 | 60 | 9.3% | −1.4 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 345 | 31 | 9% | −1.7 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 133 | 13 | 9.8% | −0.9 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 50 | 4 | 8% | −2.7 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 13 | 0 | 0% | −10.7 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 21 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
6 siblings in the archive, 4 winners — best of them Secrecy (GB) (6 wins).
The wins came over 6f–1m½f; the highest grade won is Listed (Secrecy (GB)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Secrecy (GB) | 15 | 6 | 7f–1m | Listed |
| Twenty Minutes (GB) | 42 | 1 | 6f | — |
| Blink Of An Eye (GB) | 5 | 1 | 7f | Class 6 |
| Private Joke (GB) | 7 | 1 | 1m½f | Class 5 |
| Knowing Look (GB) | 1 | 0 | — | — |
| Poets Secret (GB) | 2 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Firm | 3 | 1 | 33% | +4.00 |
| Standard (AW) | 1 | 1 | 100% | +4.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 5 | 3 | 2 | 67% | +9.00 |
| Class 4 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lingfield | 2 | 1 | 50% | +5.00 |
| Hamilton | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Wolverhampton (AW) | 1 | 1 | 100% | +4.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hollie Doyle | 2 | 1 | 50% | +3.00 |
| Oisin Murphy | 1 | 1 | 100% | +6.00 |
| Paul Hanagan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 3 | 1 | 33% | +2.00 |
| Blinkers | 1 | 1 | 100% | +6.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 19+21d | Lingfield | Watch The Bettingpeople Videos starsportsbet.co.uk Nursery | 1/4 | 9-12 | 76 | 61C | 82B | Oisin Murphy | 6/1 | |
| 19 Jun 19+18d | Hamilton | Hamilton Park Supporting Racing To School Novice Auction Stakes (Plus 10) | 7/7 | 7 | 9-3 | — | 55A | 36A | Paul Hanagan | 7/2 |
| 01 Jun 19+19d | Lingfield | Martin Matthews 50th Birthday Fillies' Novice Median Auction Stakes (Plus 10) | 2/5 | 3¾ | 9-5 | — | 68C | 83B | Hollie Doyle | 3/1 |
| 13 May 19 | Wolverhampton (AW) | Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Novice Auction Stakes | 1/9 | 8-11 | — | 78A | 73A | Hollie Doyle | 4/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Probable Cause (GB) won?
- Probable Cause (GB) won 2 of 4 archived starts in 2019, a strike rate of 50%. Placed 3 times in total (75% of starts).
- Who trained Probable Cause (GB)?
- Probable Cause (GB) was trained by Archie Watson on the most recent run on record, at Lingfield on 10 July 2019.
- Who is Probable Cause (GB)'s sire?
- Probable Cause (GB) is by Lethal Force (IRE) out of Wink (GB), whose sire is Salse.
- What going does Probable Cause (GB) prefer?
- Probable Cause (GB) has the best record on good to firm going: 1 win from 3 starts (33.3%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Probable Cause (GB)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 76, from the run on 10 July 2019. That is also the highest on record.
- What is Probable Cause (GB)'s sire's record?
- Lethal Force (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 10.7% of 4,264 runs since Jan 2008 (268 horses), Flat and jumps together. Weakest on soft going: 6.2% from 357.
- Who are Probable Cause (GB)'s siblings?
- Out of Wink (GB), Probable Cause (GB) has 6 other produce in our archive, 4 of them winners. Most wins: Secrecy (GB) (6). Highest grade won: Listed (Secrecy (GB)). The wins came over 6f–1m½f. As at Oct 2026.
- Has Probable Cause (GB) produced winners?
- As a dam, Probable Cause (GB) has 1 produce in our archive, 0 of them winners. As at Oct 2026.