What is Archie Watson's strike rate?

Archie Watson has won 390 of 3,113 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 12.5% (as at 23 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Archie Watson do best at?

Chepstow by strike rate: 17 wins from 76 runners (22.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Archie Watson?

Hollie Doyle, with 976 runners since 2022 — 31% of the total. That pairing has won 163 (16.7%).

Is Archie Watson in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 14 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Archie Watson's Fair A/E?

1.01, from 3,093 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Archie Watson

3,113 runners in the last 5 seasons · 440 individual horses

As at 23 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 1.1% of 452 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 23 Oct 2026.

Last runner 4 days ago 94% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2016→)

from 1 Jan 2022

390–3,113

Wins / Runs

12.5%

Strike rate

n=3,113

928 (30%)

Placed

1.01

Fair A/E

n=3,093 · 0.87 incl. margin

−756.90

£1 level stake

n=3,113 at SP · −24.3%

£6.72m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.8%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 620 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 13% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.01). New recruits from other yards win at 21% first time out (94 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 3,113 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 23 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Mar–Apr Fresh horses: 19.7% 37.7% when favourite Hollie Doyle: 16.7% from 976 New recruits: 21.3% Headgear returns: 15.6% Sends off the favourite in 11% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Ayr (41.2%, n=34) and Chepstow (22.4%, n=76) — all clear of the yard's 12.5% baseline. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 21.3% (n=94, Fair A/E 1.65), but a horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 6.5% (n=216, Fair A/E 0.58). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 19.7% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.49 and +112.98 to a £1 stake over 366 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 7.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.82 and −201.93 to a £1 stake over 349 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Hollie Doyle rides 31% of the entries and edges the yard's average (16.7% vs 12.5%, A/E 1.06) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a break of 180+ days (24.1%, n=133). 47 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the King's Stand Stakes at Ascot (Jun 2023, £355,855). The stable star of the record: Corinthia Knight (IRE) — 16 wins from 86 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Mar–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.5% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

19.7%+7.2

n=366 · A/E 1.49 · £1 +112.98

New recruits · first run for the yard

21.3%+8.8

n=94 · A/E 1.65 · £1 +56.22

Debutants · first career start

13.7%+1.2

n=300 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −96.37

First-time headgear · true-first definition

6.5%−6.0

n=216 · A/E 0.58 · £1 −154.05

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

15.6%+3.1

n=77 · A/E 1.63 · £1 +24.95

When favourite

37.7%

n=350 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −48.40

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

7.4%−5.1

n=349 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −201.93

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

10%−2.5

n=239 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −17.62

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Ayr 41.2% vs 12.5% · n=34

Off a break of 180+ days 24.1% vs 12.5% · n=133

With James Doyle 24.1% vs 12.5% · n=54

At Chepstow 22.4% vs 12.5% · n=76

With William Cox 4% vs 12.5% · n=124

With new recruits 21.3% vs 12.5% · n=94

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 2,939 372 12.7% −679.53

Hurdle 113 15 13.3% −44.37

NH Flat 34 3 8.8% −6.00

Chase 27 0 0% −27.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,442 196 13.6% −381.98

Good 576 72 12.5% −119.68

Good to Firm 532 69 13% −63.23

Good to Soft 258 22 8.5% −89.73

Soft 226 23 10.2% −70.69

Heavy 67 8 11.9% −19.59

Firm 12 0 0% −12.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 363 50 13.8% −74.84

Lingfield (AW) 246 38 15.4% −44.36

Kempton (AW) 240 19 7.9% −151.42

Newcastle (AW) 222 41 18.5% −30.32

Southwell (AW) 198 21 10.6% −50.78

Chelmsford City (AW) 165 24 14.5% −33.76

Ascot 113 7 6.2% −37.67

Yarmouth 76 8 10.5% −28.75

Chepstow 76 17 22.4% +11.74

Newbury 71 7 9.9% +23.83

Salisbury 67 7 10.4% −23.77

Windsor 62 7 11.3% −38.67

Doncaster 61 8 13.1% +10.00

Haydock 61 6 9.8% −13.32

Goodwood 60 3 5% −44.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 1,122 148 13.2% −363.39

Class 4 707 92 13% −185.24

Class 6 553 72 13% −41.54

Class 2 272 27 9.9% −52.40

Class 1 239 24 10% −17.62

Class 3 209 26 12.4% −87.81

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 388 141 36.3% 1.05 −55.03

2nd–3rd fav 775 144 18.6% 1.07 −88.97

4th–6th fav 1,076 86 8% 0.96 −175.90

7th+ in betting 874 19 2.2% 0.67 −437.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Alazwar (IRE) 50 7 14 16 Oct 26

Throne Hall (GB)from Kevin Ryan 48 5 9 26 Nov 25

Tempus (GB)from Roger Charlton 40 5 10 29 Oct 25

Luna Magic (GB)from Lydia Pearce 31 3 10 12 Dec 24

Albasheer (IRE)from Owen Burrows 30 4 11 16 May 26

Corinthia Knight (IRE) 30 3 9 18 Nov 23

Excel Power (IRE) 25 4 8 23 Oct 24

Sir Joseph Swan (GB)from Amanda Perrett 22 2 6 3 Feb 25

Mighty Gurkha (IRE)then Thomas Faulkner 22 1 3 24 Sep 23

Amor de Mi Vida (FR) 22 3 7 2 Sep 23

Scarlet Moon (GB) 21 5 8 13 Oct 26

Blue Empress (IRE) 21 1 8 7 Jan 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 440 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 11 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 23 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Richard Fahey (3) and John & Thady Gosden (2); 37 had their first archived run for this yard.

17 have since run for another yard, most often for Bernard Llewellyn (2) and Robert Cowell (2); 43 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

2 from 14

Only 14 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

14121617131110141381212

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderHollie Doyle

31% of all rides
16.7% SR · A/E 1.06

RiderRWSR£1

Hollie Doyle 976 163 16.7% −134.40

Luke Morris 539 59 10.9% −134.99

Miss Brodie Hampson 268 29 10.8% −42.76

Joshua Bryan 132 11 8.3% −70.56

William Cox 124 5 4% −36.62

Taylor Fisher 122 9 7.4% −69.64

Laura Coughlan 101 7 6.9% −41.50

Nick Scholfield 65 6 9.2% −31.05

Paul Mulrennan 58 9 15.5% −19.01

James Doyle 54 13 24.1% −19.24

Hector Crouch 54 7 13% +11.44

Pierre-Louis Jamin 45 3 6.7% −8.25

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2016→

861

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£12.7m

Prize money

2019

Best season · 140 wins

Bradsell (GB) — King's Stand Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) Ascot · Jun 2023 · Group 1

£355,855

Bradsell (GB) — Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) York · Aug 2024 · Group 1

£283,550

Bradsell (GB) — Bar One Racing Flying Five Stakes (Group 1) Curragh · Sep 2024 · Group 1

£236,000

Notable horses

Corinthia Knight (IRE) Captain Lars (SAF) Luna Magic (GB) Alazwar (IRE) Excel Power (IRE) Stag Horn (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kingman (GB) 8.9% · 12–135

Progeny have won 14.6% of 7,476 runs since 2008 (775 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11% from 960. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9.1% from 121.

Mehmas (IRE) 20.8% · 22–106

Progeny have won 11.6% of 8,121 runs since 2008 (747 horses).

Sioux Nation (USA) 17.6% · 18–102

Progeny have won 12.4% of 2,874 runs since 2008 (353 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 17.2% from 425. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.3% from 577. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 4.8% from 189.

Blue Point (IRE) 10.1% · 10–99

Progeny have won 14% of 3,398 runs since 2008 (414 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 17% from 336. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 10.6% from 208.

Mayson (GB) 13.4% · 9–67

Progeny have won 10.7% of 7,369 runs since 2008 (442 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.8% from 1,729. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 106.

Kodiac (GB) 10% · 6–60

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,542 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 252.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 23 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 5,819 · newest first

The latest 50 of 5,819 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 29 August 2016 to 19 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Paris Babe (FR)J: Gina Mangan Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 28/1

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Rogue Enforcer (GB)J: Rossa Ryan William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Heavy · 9 ran 9th 14/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Persian Gate (IRE)J: Luke Morris Winter Ladies Night Saturday 28th November Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 4th 8/1

17 Oct 26 Catterick Spartan Arrow (IRE)J: Oisin Orr William Hill Catterick Dash Handicap StakesClass 2 · 5f · Good · 12 ran 9th 12/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Alazwar (IRE)J: Miss Brodie Hampson Watch Racing Replays At racingtv.com Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Good · 14 ran 4th 20/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Shorien (IRE)J: Pierre-Louis Jamin Join Racing TV Now British EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Good · 10 ran 7th 18/1

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Chianti (GB)J: Luke Morris Free Digital Racecard At Raceday-ready.com Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 12 ran 2nd 12/1

13 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Palliser (GB)J: Oisin Murphy Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 7/1

13 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Scarlet Moon (GB)J: Oisin Murphy Stay At The Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 14f · Standard · 7 ran 7th 7/2

13 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Hamaleel (GB)J: Billy Loughnane Follow @attheraces On Instagram Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 6 ran 6th 11/2

12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Siouxperb (GB)J: Connor Beasley Follow @AtTheRaces On Instagram Nursery Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Standard · 6 ran 1st 11/4F

12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Moofeed (IRE)J: Daniel Tudhope Free Tips On attheraces.com EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 11/8

12 Oct 26 Yarmouth Able Tasman (IRE)J: James Doyle British Ebf Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 5th 11/4

12 Oct 26 Musselburgh Pride Of Nepal (GB)J: Miss Brodie Hampson Join Racing TV Now Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 9f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 6th 14/1

08 Oct 26 Bath Chanter Le Blues (IRE)J: Luke Morris EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 5f · Good · 7 ran 5th 4/1

05 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Fille Etoile (IRE)J: Billy Loughnane Get The Inside Track With raceday-ready.com EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 1st 17/2

02 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) High Threshold (IRE)J: Daniel Tudhope Insulation Contractors Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 2nd 5/1

29 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Palliser (GB)J: Luke Morris attheraces.com/marketmovers Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 80/1

29 Sep 26 Ayr Celestial Cen (GB)J: Pierre-Louis Jamin Racing TV Handicap StakesClass 6 · 15f · Heavy · 7 ran 6th 22/1

27 Sep 26 Ffos Las Niewiadoma (IRE)J: Gina Mangan Bridge, The Home Of The Carvery Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 8th 20/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Archie Watson's strike rate?: Archie Watson has won 390 of 3,113 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 12.5% (as at 23 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Archie Watson do best at?: Chepstow by strike rate: 17 wins from 76 runners (22.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Archie Watson?: Hollie Doyle, with 976 runners since 2022 — 31% of the total. That pairing has won 163 (16.7%).
Is Archie Watson in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 14 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Archie Watson's Fair A/E?: 1.01, from 3,093 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.