Paul Hanagan
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 90 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.18).
It is weakest at Pontefract (3.1% over 32 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 4.3% (n=69, Fair A/E 0.73). Richard Fahey supplies 20% of the rides and edges the rider's average (15.3% vs 11%, A/E 1.43) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well off a break of 180+ days (15.9%, n=44). The record reads poorly in Class 2 — 5.4% over 37 rides, 5.6pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider over 1m – 1m1f: Fair A/E 0.67 across 72 rides (5.6% strike, −32.67 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 98 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot (Jul 2014, £603,962). The standout partner of the record: Anna Pavlova (GB) — 8 wins from 16 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Apr–May.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 11% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 11% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 13,724 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 13,724 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 17 September 2023.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Paul Hanagan's strike rate?
- Paul Hanagan has won 47 of 429 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 11% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Paul Hanagan do best at?
- Beverley by strike rate: 6 wins from 38 rides (15.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Paul Hanagan ride most for?
- Richard Fahey, with 85 rides since 2022 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 13 (15.3%).
- What is Paul Hanagan's Fair A/E?
- 1.18, from 426 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.