Surely Not (IRE)
Surely Not (IRE) is 4 from 9. Hasn't won since May 2023. Last raced off a career-high mark of 92.
- 4–9Wins / Runs
- 44.4%Strike rate
- 5 (55.6%)Placed
- +24.83£1 level staken=9 at SP
- 5.01Fair A/E n=9 · 4.24 incl. margin
- 92Highest OR
- 48dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 107
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 22 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Firm | 3 | 71C | 69 | — |
| Good to Soft | 3 | 98C | 74 | — |
| Soft | 1 | — | — | — |
| Good | 1 | — | — | — |
| Standard (AW) | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 22 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 6 | 107A | 68.5 | — |
| 1m – 1m1f | 3 | 98C | 74 | — |
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 9 figures from 9 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style is derived from in-running commentary, which our data provider does not supply for this horse's races.
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 7.6% of 581 runs since Jan 2008 (50 horses).
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 5 | 1 | 20% | +12.4 | — |
| Good to Firm | 81 | 11 | 13.6% | +6 | 0 from 3 |
| Good | 152 | 10 | 6.6% | −1 | 1 from 1 |
| Good to Soft | 68 | 5 | 7.4% | −0.2 | 1 from 3 |
| Soft | 78 | 4 | 5.1% | −2.5 | 1 from 1 |
| Heavy | 26 | 1 | 3.8% | −3.8 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 171 | 12 | 7% | −0.6 | 1 from 1 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 19 | 2 | 10.5% | +2.9 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 188 | 12 | 6.4% | −1.2 | 3 from 6 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 198 | 20 | 10.1% | +2.5 | 1 from 3 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 84 | 6 | 7.1% | −0.5 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 46 | 1 | 2.2% | −5.4 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 38 | 2 | 5.3% | −2.3 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | +4.9 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 22 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
8 siblings in the archive, 2 winners — best of them With Thanks (IRE) (4 wins).
The wins came over 7f; the highest grade won is Group 3 (With Thanks (IRE)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| With Thanks (IRE) | 10 | 4 | 7f | Group 3 |
| Bells On Her Toes (IRE) | 27 | 3 | 7f | — |
| Stellar Eclipse (IRE) | 3 | 0 | — | — |
| Big Thanks (IRE) | 12 | 0 | — | — |
| Many Thanks (IRE) | 6 | 0 | — | — |
| Thanks Angel (IRE) | 6 | 0 | — | — |
| Forevertwentyone (IRE) | 12 | 0 | — | — |
| Almugura (IRE) | 2 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Firm | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Good to Soft | 3 | 1 | 33% | +7.00 |
| Soft | 1 | 1 | 100% | +3.50 |
| Good | 1 | 1 | 100% | +3.33 |
| Standard (AW) | 1 | 1 | 100% | +14.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 2 | 4 | 1 | 25% | +0.50 |
| Class 4 | 2 | 1 | 50% | +8.00 |
| Class 5 | 2 | 1 | 50% | +13.00 |
| Class 3 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +3.33 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascot | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Newbury | 2 | 1 | 50% | +2.33 |
| Chester | 1 | 1 | 100% | +3.50 |
| Newmarket | 1 | 1 | 100% | +9.00 |
| York | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Goodwood | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Lingfield (AW) | 1 | 1 | 100% | +14.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 6 | 3 | 50% | +17.83 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 3 | 1 | 33% | +7.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hollie Doyle | 3 | 2 | 67% | +11.33 |
| William Buick | 1 | 1 | 100% | +3.50 |
| Joshua Bryan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Silvestre De Sousa | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Kieran Shoemark | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Rhys Clutterbuck | 1 | 1 | 100% | +14.00 |
| Callum Shepherd | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3 | 2 | 67% | +11.50 |
| 2022 | 6 | 2 | 33% | +13.33 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
Quick answers
- How many races has Surely Not (IRE) won?
- Surely Not (IRE) won 4 of 9 archived starts between 2022 and 2023, a strike rate of 44.4%. Placed 5 times in total (55.6% of starts).
- Who trained Surely Not (IRE)?
- Surely Not (IRE) was trained by Dominic Ffrench Davis on the most recent run on record, at Ascot on 22 June 2023.
- Who is Surely Not (IRE)'s sire?
- Surely Not (IRE) is by National Defense (GB) out of Thanks (IRE), whose sire is Kheleyf.
- What going does Surely Not (IRE) prefer?
- Surely Not (IRE) has the best record on good to soft going: 1 win from 3 starts (33.3%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Surely Not (IRE)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 92, from the run on 22 June 2023. That is also the highest on record.
- What is Surely Not (IRE)'s sire's record?
- National Defense (GB)'s progeny in our archive have won 7.6% of 581 runs since Jan 2008 (50 horses), Flat and jumps together.
- Who are Surely Not (IRE)'s siblings?
- Out of Thanks (IRE), Surely Not (IRE) has 8 other produce in our archive, 2 of them winners. Most wins: With Thanks (IRE) (4). Highest grade won: Group 3 (With Thanks (IRE)). The wins came over 7f. As at Oct 2026.