Swan Bay (IRE)
Swan Bay (IRE) is 2 from 5. Won last time out at Roscommon. Each win came on a first visit to the course.
- 2–5Wins / Runs
- 40%Strike rate
- 3 (60%)Placed
- −0.63£1 level staken=5 at SP
- 1.44Fair A/E n=5 · 1.23 incl. margin
- 101Highest OR
- 69dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 102
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was.
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 14 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 3 | 102A | 99 | — |
| Heavy | 1 | — | — | — |
| Soft | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 14 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 2 | 107C | 99.5 | — |
| 1m – 1m1f | 2 | 102A | 100.5 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 1 | — | — | — |
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 5 figures from 5 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style is derived from in-running commentary, which our data provider does not supply for this horse's races.
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 11.2% of 5,616 runs since Jan 2008 (563 horses).
Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.7% from 104.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | +11.9 | — |
| Good to Firm | 663 | 81 | 12.2% | +1 | — |
| Good | 1,500 | 164 | 10.9% | −0.3 | 1 from 3 |
| Good to Soft | 654 | 67 | 10.2% | −1 | — |
| Soft | 951 | 120 | 12.6% | +1.4 | 0 from 1 |
| Heavy | 324 | 29 | 9% | −2.2 | 1 from 1 |
| Standard (AW) | 1,510 | 164 | 10.9% | −0.3 | — |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 32 | 2 | 6.3% | −4.9 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 639 | 63 | 9.9% | −1.3 | 0 from 1 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1,237 | 136 | 11% | −0.2 | 1 from 2 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 2,077 | 265 | 12.8% | +1.6 | 1 from 2 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 1,165 | 129 | 11.1% | −0.1 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 351 | 25 | 7.1% | −4.1 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 104 | 7 | 6.7% | −4.5 | — |
| Over 3m | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | −2.1 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 14 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
4 siblings in the archive, 2 winners — best of them All Things Nice (IRE) (2 wins).
The wins came over 6f–1m; the highest grade won is Class 6 (Dr Jekyll (IRE)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Things Nice (IRE) | 6 | 2 | 6f–1m | — |
| Dr Jekyll (IRE) | 18 | 1 | 1m | Class 6 |
| Mystery Of Love (IRE) | 3 | 0 | — | — |
| Aussie Pearl (IRE) | 6 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 3 | 1 | 33% | −1.38 |
| Heavy | 1 | 1 | 100% | +1.75 |
| Soft | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curragh | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Roscommon | 1 | 1 | 100% | +1.75 |
| Leopardstown | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Galway | 1 | 1 | 100% | +0.62 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 2 | 1 | 50% | +0.75 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 2 | 1 | 50% | −0.38 |
| 6f – 7f | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Crosse | 4 | 2 | 50% | +0.37 |
| Declan McDonogh | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | 1 | 50% | +0.75 |
| 2021 | 3 | 1 | 33% | −1.38 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 May 22+37d | Roscommon | Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Race | 1/5 | 9-10 | 100 | 107C | 98B | Shane Crosse | 7/4F | |
| 02 Apr 22+189d | Leopardstown | P.w. Mcgrath Memorial Ballysax Stakes (group 3) | 6/9 | 5½ | 9-5 | 101 | 92A | 76A | Declan McDonogh | 7/1 |
| 25 Sep 21+18d | Curragh | Alan Smurfit Memorial Beresford Stakes (Group 2) | 4/5 | ½ | 9-5 | — | 99C | 83B | Shane Crosse | 15/8 |
| 07 Sep 21+30d | Galway | Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden | 1/10 | 9-7 | — | 102A | 100A | Shane Crosse | 8/13F | |
| 08 Aug 21 | Curragh | Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden | 2/15 | nk | 9-7 | — | 66C | 92A | Shane Crosse | 5/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Swan Bay (IRE) won?
- Swan Bay (IRE) won 2 of 5 archived starts between 2021 and 2022, a strike rate of 40%. Placed 3 times in total (60% of starts).
- Who trained Swan Bay (IRE)?
- Swan Bay (IRE) was trained by Joseph Patrick O'Brien on the most recent run on record, at Roscommon on 9 May 2022.
- Who is Swan Bay (IRE)'s sire?
- Swan Bay (IRE) is by Australia (GB) out of Similu (GB), whose sire is Danehill Dancer.
- What going does Swan Bay (IRE) prefer?
- Swan Bay (IRE) has the best record on good going: 1 win from 3 starts (33.3%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Swan Bay (IRE)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 100, from the run on 9 May 2022. The highest on record is 101.
- What is Swan Bay (IRE)'s sire's record?
- Australia (GB)'s progeny in our archive have won 11.2% of 5,616 runs since Jan 2008 (563 horses), Flat and jumps together. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.7% from 104.
- Who are Swan Bay (IRE)'s siblings?
- Out of Similu (GB), Swan Bay (IRE) has 4 other produce in our archive, 2 of them winners. Most wins: All Things Nice (IRE) (2). Highest grade won: Class 6 (Dr Jekyll (IRE)). The wins came over 6f–1m. As at Oct 2026.