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Jockey profile

Des Flavin

182 rides in our archive record, 2005–2006 · 68 individual horses
As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride Dec 2006 100% of rides over jumps
Archive record 2005–2006
No rides from 1 Jan 2008, where our aggregate statistics normally begin — showing the full archive record instead, 7 Jan 2005 to 30 Dec 2006. Figures that need a horse's earlier runs (debuts, time since a run, first-time headgear, new connections, last-time-out winners) are left out: for runs this early our archive cannot see what came before.
5–182
Wins / Runs
2.7%
Strike rate
n=182
24 (13%)
Placed
0.54
Fair A/E
n=182 · 0.47 incl. margin
−113.00
£1 level stake
n=182 at SP · −62.1%
£46,299
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
2.6%
KTB Rider Profile

Rode 182 times in our archive record (2005–2006), almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across that record (Fair A/E 0.54). Rode mostly for Lucy Normile — 85% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 182 archived runs (archive record 2005–2006) · updated 22 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Lucy Normile: 3.2% from 154
The read

The market has consistently overbet claiming rides: 2.3% strike, Fair A/E 0.45 and −139.00 to a £1 stake over 174 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Lucy Normile supplied 85% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (3.2%, A/E 0.61). The rider also read well on Good to Soft going (5.9%, n=34). The market has consistently overbet the rider on Soft going: Fair A/E 0.27 across 57 rides (1.8% strike, −23.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2.7% baseline
When favourite
0%
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
2.3%−0.4
n=174 · A/E 0.45 · £1 −139.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−2.7
n=58 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −58.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−2.7
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. Tiles that depend on a horse's earlier runs (debuts, time off, first-time headgear, new connections, last-time-out winners) are not shown on an archive-era record: for runs this early our archive cannot see what came before.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Good to Soft going 5.9% vs 2.7% · n=34
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 4.8% vs 2.7% · n=63
Over 1m5f – 2m 1.4% vs 2.7% · n=69 · A/E 0.35
In Class 4 3.7% vs 2.7% · n=109 · A/E 0.68
On Soft going 1.8% vs 2.7% · n=57 · A/E 0.27
In Chase races 3.6% vs 2.7% · n=55 · A/E 0.48
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 106 3 2.8% −56.00
Chase 55 2 3.6% −36.00
NH Flat 21 0 0% −21.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 57 1 1.8% −23.00
Good 42 1 2.4% −34.00
Good to Soft 34 2 5.9% −13.00
Good to Firm 27 0 0% −27.00
Heavy 18 1 5.6% −12.00
Firm 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Ayr 27 1 3.7% −19.00
Perth 23 1 4.3% +11.00
Musselburgh 18 0 0% −18.00
Kelso 17 0 0% −17.00
Sedgefield 15 0 0% −15.00
Carlisle 13 0 0% −13.00
Wetherby 12 0 0% −12.00
Market Rasen 10 0 0% −10.00
Newcastle 9 2 22.2% +10.00
Hexham 8 0 0% −8.00
Cartmel 4 1 25% +4.00
Uttoxeter 4 0 0% −4.00
Leicester 4 0 0% −4.00
Doncaster 3 0 0% −3.00
Haydock 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 109 4 3.7% −74.00
Class 3 29 0 0% −29.00
Class 5 22 0 0% −22.00
Class 6 17 0 0% −17.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 2 1 1 100% +33.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 7 0 0% 0.00 −7.00
2nd–3rd fav 19 0 0% 0.00 −19.00
4th–6th fav 43 5 11.6% 2.00 +26.00
7th+ in betting 113 0 0% 0.00 −113.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
66.5% completed · 161 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 55 60% 1 0 21 0 0
Hurdle 106 69.8% 0 0 32 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Flaming Heck (GB) 16 2 7 26 Dec 06
Trisons Star (IRE) 11 2 7 3 Apr 06
Bobbing Cove (GB) 7 0 1 30 Dec 06
Ballynure (IRE) 7 0 1 4 Dec 05
The Saltire Tiger (GB) 6 0 0 24 Nov 06
Power Strike (USA) 6 0 0 11 Aug 06
Majed (FR) 6 0 0 3 Dec 05
The Honey Guide (GB) 6 0 0 5 Aug 05
Pacific Highway (IRE) 5 0 0 22 May 05
Modarab (GB) 4 0 0 20 Dec 06
English City (IRE) 4 0 0 24 Nov 06
Turbulent Flight (GB) 4 0 0 16 Jul 06
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 68 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 2005–2006
JFMAMJJASOND
1004550000000
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardLucy Normile
85% of all rides
3.2% SR · A/E 0.61
TrainerRWSR£1
Lucy Normile 154 5 3.2% −85.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
5
Archived wins
£46,299
Prize money
2005
Best season · 3 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. On this page the header statistics and this card both count from the archive floor (2005), so they agree.
Trisons Star (IRE) — NH Novices' Hurdle Perth · Apr 2005 · Class 2
£8,050
Flaming Heck (GB) — Saltwell Signs Handicap Chase Newcastle · Jan 2005 · Class 4
£3,832
Flaming Heck (GB) — Ernie Turner From Debmat Is 60 Handicap Chase Newcastle · Mar 2006 · Class 4
£3,758
Notable horses
Flaming Heck (GB) Trisons Star (IRE) Dalkeys Lad (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Roselier (FR) 11.1% · 2–18
Progeny have won 10.2% of 2,338 runs since 2005 (257 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.5% from 400. Weakest on Good to Firm going: 6.8% from 250. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.6% from 137.
Dancing High (GB) 12.5% · 2–16
Progeny have won 8.2% of 257 runs since 2005 (29 horses).
Busy Flight (GB) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 10.1% of 495 runs since 2005 (49 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 15% from 187. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.3% from 122.
Bob's Return (IRE) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 8% of 3,001 runs since 2005 (275 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 13% from 131.
Danehill (USA) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 13.2% of 3,185 runs since 2005 (270 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 9.8% from 358. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 16.3% from 759. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 161.
Coronado's Quest (USA) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 5.5% of 145 runs since 2005 (11 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2005, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 182 · newest first

The latest 50 of 182 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 7 January 2005 to 30 December 2006.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
30 Dec 06 Musselburgh Bobbing Cove (GB)T: Lucy Normile Charles Bennett Memorial Maiden HurdleClass 5 · 19.5f · Good · 15 ran 4th 33/1
26 Dec 06 Sedgefield Flaming Heck (GB)T: Lucy Normile totesport.com Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 16.5f · Soft · 9 ran 6th 5/1
26 Dec 06 Sedgefield Dark Diva (GB)T: Sue Smith totesport 0800 221 221 Beginners' ChaseClass 4 · 19.5f · Soft · 13 ran PU 7/1
20 Dec 06 Musselburgh Nero West (FR)T: Lucy Normile Scottish Racing 'Your Best Bet' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 24.5f · Good · 17 ran PU 66/1
20 Dec 06 Musselburgh Modarab (GB)T: Lucy Normile 'Watch Live On Racing UK' Maiden Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 15.5f · Good · 15 ran 13th 200/1
19 Dec 06 Ayr Seeking Shelter (IRE)T: N W Alexander Merry Christmas From Ayr Conditionals' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Heavy · 15 ran 9th 20/1
19 Dec 06 Ayr Flaming Heck (GB)T: Lucy Normile Come Racing On 2nd Jan Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 15.5f · Heavy · 8 ran 2nd 8/1
11 Dec 06 Ayr Native Coll (GB)T: N W Alexander Come Racing On The 19th December Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Heavy · 11 ran 7th 100/1
11 Dec 06 Ayr Nero West (FR)T: Lucy Normile Racing UK And Setanta For 15 Pounds Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Heavy · 11 ran PU 50/1
10 Dec 06 Musselburgh Run Atim (GB)T: Lucy Normile Scottish Racing 'Your Best Bet' Beginners' ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Good · 13 ran PU 100/1
29 Nov 06 Ayr Flaming Heck (GB)T: Lucy Normile John Smith's Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 15.5f · Soft · 7 ran 4th 11/1
24 Nov 06 Musselburgh Modarab (GB)T: Lucy Normile Scottish Racing Your Best Bet Maiden Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 15.5f · Good · 13 ran 8th 66/1
24 Nov 06 Musselburgh English City (IRE)T: Lucy Normile Racing UK And Setanta Juvenile Novices' HurdleClass 5 · 15.5f · Good · 9 ran 6th 6/1
24 Nov 06 Musselburgh The Saltire Tiger (GB)T: Lucy Normile Racing UK For 15 Pounds Call 08700 50 69 49 Maiden HurdleClass 5 · 19.5f · Good · 11 ran 6th 200/1
21 Nov 06 Sedgefield Generals Laststand (IRE)T: Lucy Normile Mitie Property Services Beginners' Chase (Div 2)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran PU 100/1
06 Nov 06 Carlisle Flaming Heck (GB)T: Lucy Normile Wbx.com World Bet Exchange Conditionals' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 17f · Soft · 6 ran 6th 5/2F
06 Nov 06 Carlisle Bobbing Cove (GB)T: Lucy Normile wBX.com Launching On 25th November Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Soft · 11 ran 9th 33/1
03 Nov 06 Hexham Flora The Explora (GB)T: Lucy Normile Brooke Hospital Mares' Only Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 15th 50/1
29 Oct 06 Carlisle Flaming Heck (GB)T: Lucy Normile Dobies And News & Star Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 17f · Heavy · 10 ran 3rd 15/2
28 Oct 06 Wetherby English City (IRE)T: Lucy Normile Juvenile Novices' Hurdle (Listed)Class 1 · 16f · Soft · 6 ran 6th 100/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Des Flavin's strike rate?
Des Flavin has won 5 of 182 rides between 2005 and 2006, a strike rate of 2.7% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive. Our archive begins in 2005, so anything earlier is not counted.
Which yard does Des Flavin ride most for?
Lucy Normile, with 154 rides between 2005 and 2006 — 85% of the total. That pairing has won 5 (3.2%).
What is Des Flavin's Fair A/E?
0.54, from 182 rides with a computed fair probability between 2005 and 2006. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 22 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008). This profile has no runs from 2008, so every figure on this page counts from the start of the archive instead.