Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 70 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.75).
Deterministic profile computed from 361 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceConor Rabbitt: 4.7% from 107Claiming riders: 5.3%
The read
The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 1.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.58 and −93.50 to a £1 stake over 110 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Conor Rabbitt rides 30% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (4.7%, A/E 0.77). The yard also reads well in Chase races (10.7%, n=140) and off a 8-14-day break (11.9%, n=59). The record reads poorly in Hurdle races — 1% over 206 runners, 3.7pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Oddsmaker (IRE) — 9 wins from 74 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
1.8%−2.9
n=110 · A/E 0.58 · £1 −93.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.7
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.7
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.7
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.7
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
22.2%
n=9 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −3.87
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.3%+0.6
n=189 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −136.14
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Chase races10.7% vs 4.7% · n=140
Off a 8-14-day break11.9% vs 4.7% · n=59
Over 2m5f – 3m9.7% vs 4.7% · n=93
With Stephen Mulqueen0% vs 4.7% · n=75
In Hurdle races1% vs 4.7% · n=206
In Class 310% vs 4.7% · n=40
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle20621%−192.50
Chase1401510.7%−51.39
NH Flat900%−9.00
Flat600%−6.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good177126.8%−98.97
Good to Soft10354.9%−78.92
Soft6300%−63.00
Good to Firm800%−8.00
Heavy700%−7.00
Standard (AW)300%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Hexham8456%−65.42
Perth5735.3%−40.60
Kelso4636.5%−19.50
Sedgefield2600%−26.00
Newcastle22313.6%+8.50
Market Rasen2114.8%−18.62
Catterick1915.3%−15.75
Musselburgh1900%−19.00
Carlisle1900%−19.00
Ayr1800%−18.00
Cartmel9111.1%−4.50
Bangor-on-Dee700%−7.00
Wetherby500%−5.00
Worcester300%−3.00
Newcastle (AW)300%−3.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 419463.1%−165.97
Class 511576.1%−68.67
Class 340410%−12.25
Class 6600%−6.00
Class 2500%−5.00
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite11218.2%0.60−5.87
2nd–3rd fav561017.9%1.06−11.02
4th–6th fav11954.2%0.74−67.00
7th+ in betting17500%0.00−175.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f12543.2%−97.50
1m5f – 2m12232.5%−104.67
2m5f – 3m9399.7%−38.10
Over 3m1616.3%−13.62
1m2f – 1m4f200%−2.00
6f – 7f200%−2.00
1m – 1m1f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202211076.4%−65.75
202310565.7%−67.72
20247511.3%−66.50
20256334.8%−50.92
2026800%−8.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps209157.2%−117.64
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners12510.8%−120.67
5-7 runners10698.5%−39.25
11-13 runners9311.1%−87.50
2-4 runners19631.6%+6.53
14-16 runners1700%−17.00
17+ runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 43 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 43 horses listed, 28 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Anthony Carson (3) and Rebecca Menzies (3); 15 had their first archived run for this yard.
7 have since run for another yard, most often for James Moffatt (2); 36 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0412559004340
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
190
Archived wins
£1.66m
Prize money
2019
Best season · 16 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Oddsmaker (IRE) — Grolsch Cumberland Plate Handicap Carlisle · Jun 2007 · Class 4
£19,431
Bafana Blue (GB) — Cumberland Handicap Chase Carlisle · Nov 2019 · Class 3
£15,640
Torkinking (IRE) — Ramside Event Catering Handicap Hurdle Hexham · Dec 2006 · Class 3
Progeny have won 12.1% of 5,575 runs since 2008 (511 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 15.9% from 1,080. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.8% from 1,277. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 15.1% from 589. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.7% from 573.
Cloudings (IRE)19% · 4–21
Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,882 runs since 2008 (309 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 14.6% from 410. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.5% from 815.
Milan (GB)0% · 0–19
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,844 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).
Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,807 runs since 2008 (704 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 203. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 816.
Progeny have won 12.8% of 2,646 runs since 2008 (296 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 2,811 · newest first
The latest 50 of 2,811 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 10 January 2005 to 14 March 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Maurice Barnes's strike rate?
Maurice Barnes has won 17 of 361 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 4.7% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Maurice Barnes do best at?
Kelso by strike rate: 3 wins from 46 runners (6.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Maurice Barnes?
Conor Rabbitt, with 107 runners since 2022 — 30% of the total. That pairing has won 5 (4.7%).
What is Maurice Barnes's Fair A/E?
0.75, from 361 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Maurice Barnes·SR 4.7%·A/E 0.75
KTB
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