Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
4.5%−5.5
n=22 · A/E 0.61 · £1 −9.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
20%+10.0
n=5 · A/E 1.22 · £1 −2.10
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−10.0
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=3 · A/E 1.28 · £1 −0.10
Big fields · 14+ runners
9.5%−0.5
n=21 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −0.90
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
4.5%−5.5
n=22 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −16.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Flat races10% vs 10% · n=50 · A/E 1.23
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)22313.6%+1.00
Good to Soft9111.1%+13.00
Soft900%−9.00
Good7114.3%−1.50
Heavy300%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR)21314.3%+2.00
Marseille Borely (FR)8112.5%+14.00
Chantilly (FR)7114.3%−1.50
Longchamp (FR)400%−4.00
Vichy (FR)400%−4.00
Lyon Parilly (FR)200%−2.00
Toulouse (FR)200%−2.00
Salon-de-Provence (FR)100%−1.00
Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 12214.5%−16.50
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite3133.3%1.28−0.10
2nd–3rd fav1119.1%0.65−5.50
4th–6th fav15320%2.59+27.10
7th+ in betting2100%0.00−21.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f21314.3%+2.00
1m2f – 1m4f1516.7%+7.00
Under 6f7114.3%−1.50
1m – 1m1f600%−6.00
1m5f – 2m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20221000%−10.00
2023200%−2.00
202428517.9%+22.50
20251000%−10.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps24312.5%−1.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners2129.5%−0.90
11-13 runners14214.3%−5.60
8-10 runners1200%−12.00
5-7 runners200%−2.00
2-4 runners11100%+21.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 23 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0000033000172513
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Broken In Light (FR) — Prix Georges Trabaud () Marseille Borely (FR) · May 2009 · Listed
£26,699
Broken Kitten (FR) — Prix des Jouvenceaux et des Jouvencelles () Vichy (FR) · Jul 2009 · Listed
£26,699
Kelty In Love (FR) — Prix des Reves d'Or - Jacques Bouchara () Vichy (FR) · Jul 2009 · Listed
Progeny have won 9.7% of 8,418 runs since 2008 (636 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.4% from 1,121.
Zoustar (AUS)14.3% · 1–7
Progeny have won 10.8% of 2,723 runs since 2008 (313 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.2% from 325. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 3.6% from 193.
Progeny have won 7.4% of 4,123 runs since 2008 (448 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4% from 253. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 209. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 142.
Progeny have won 5.6% of 900 runs since 2008 (124 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 239 · newest first
The latest 50 of 239 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 12 May 2006 to 3 April 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Guillaume Millet's strike rate?
Guillaume Millet has won 5 of 50 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 10% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Guillaume Millet's Fair A/E?
1.23, from 50 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Guillaume Millet·SR 10%·A/E 1.23
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy