P Cottier
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Sends out around 120 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 17% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.21). New recruits from other yards win at 19% first time out (37 runs).
It is weakest at Longchamp (FR) (10.7% over 103 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 10.4% (n=48, Fair A/E 0.94). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 15.9% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.24 and +0.55 to a £1 stake over 170 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Hugo Besnier rides 21% of the entries and edges the yard's average (21.1% vs 16.9%, A/E 1.65) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly on Heavy going — 11.3% over 62 runners, 5.6pts below the baseline. 30 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Prix de Diane Longines at Chantilly (FR) (Jun 2024, £496,870). The stable star of the record: Horizon Dore (FR) — 8 wins from 25 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Nov–Dec.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 16.9% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 16.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses trained
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleWhen the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasonsJockey bookings
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2011→Sires in the string
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 667 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 667 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 21 January 2011 to 19 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is P Cottier's strike rate?
- P Cottier has won 104 of 617 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 16.9% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does P Cottier do best at?
- Chantilly (FR) by strike rate: 23 wins from 106 runners (21.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Who rides most for P Cottier?
- Hugo Besnier, with 128 runners since 2022 — 21% of the total. That pairing has won 27 (21.1%).
- Is P Cottier in form?
- Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 12 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is P Cottier's Fair A/E?
- 1.21, from 616 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.