Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 50 runners a season, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.59).
Deterministic profile computed from 242 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 5.7%
The read
The record is strongest at Deauville (10.6%, n=66), clear of the yard's 5.4% baseline. It is weakest at Chantilly (FR) (2.2% over 45 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=50, Fair A/E 0.00). The yard also reads well off a 31-60-day break (9.1%, n=33). 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Prix Christian de Tredern at Auteuil (FR) (Jun 2015, £47,093).
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.7%−0.7
n=64 · A/E 0.58 · £1 −24.20
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.4
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.4
n=50 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −50.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
7.4%+2.0
n=27 · A/E 1.90 · £1 +21.30
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−5.4
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
7.1%
n=14 · A/E 0.28 · £1 −10.90
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.7%+0.3
n=53 · A/E 0.77 · £1 +1.20
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.4
n=23 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −23.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
At Deauville10.6% vs 5.4% · n=66
With debutants0% vs 5.4% · n=50
Off a 31-60-day break9.1% vs 5.4% · n=33
At Chantilly (FR)2.2% vs 5.4% · n=45
Over 2m1f – 2m4f2.9% vs 5.4% · n=35
Over 6f – 7f7.5% vs 5.4% · n=67
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat204125.9%−53.40
Hurdle2400%−24.00
Chase1417.1%−10.90
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft7956.3%−54.70
Standard (AW)6957.2%+36.40
Good to Soft4824.2%−29.80
Heavy2700%−27.00
Good1915.3%−13.20
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville66710.6%+48.60
Chantilly (FR)4512.2%−30.70
Saint-Cloud2713.7%−18.50
Auteuil (FR)2114.8%−17.90
Longchamp (FR)2100%−21.00
Compiegne (FR)1100%−11.00
Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR)1000%−10.00
Dieppe (FR)800%−8.00
Saint-Malo (FR)5240%+3.00
Le Mans (FR)500%−5.00
Clairefontaine (FR)500%−5.00
Fontainebleau (FR)400%−4.00
Vichy (FR)400%−4.00
Le Lion-D'Angers (FR)3133.3%+2.20
Craon (FR)200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 12500%−25.00
Class 31200%−12.00
Class 2500%−5.00
Class 4100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite1616.3%0.25−12.90
2nd–3rd fav5147.8%0.41−33.70
4th–6th fav6546.2%0.76−33.00
7th+ in betting11043.6%1.07−8.70
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f6757.5%+2.80
1m2f – 1m4f5823.4%−50.00
1m – 1m1f5435.6%+1.10
2m1f – 2m4f3512.9%−31.90
1m5f – 2m2114.8%−13.00
Under 6f7114.3%+2.70
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20222428.3%+15.10
20232727.4%−12.10
20244800%−48.00
202550612%+33.70
20269333.2%−77.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps7945.1%−7.90
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners7134.2%−5.70
8-10 runners6968.7%−29.80
11-13 runners6734.5%−23.00
5-7 runners2400%−24.00
17+ runners1000%−10.00
2-4 runners11100%+4.20
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 65 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from D Cottin (3) and F Chappet (3); 50 had their first archived run for this yard.
14 have since run for another yard, most often for Giada Menato (2); 46 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 6
Only 6 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
000850131400100
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 9.5% of 2,044 runs since 2008 (244 horses). Strongest on Good going: 12.7% from 244. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 15.2% from 198.
Progeny have won 15.5% of 1,965 runs since 2008 (326 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 11% from 363. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 21.1% from 242. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7% from 201.
Progeny have won 12.9% of 931 runs since 2008 (154 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 15.9% from 302. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 16% from 407. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.9% from 173.
Progeny have won 11.3% of 1,693 runs since 2008 (282 horses). Strongest on Good going: 15.7% from 261. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.8% from 384. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 18.8% from 223. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5.5% from 475.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 738 · newest first
The latest 50 of 738 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 22 December 2011 to 19 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Louis Baudron's strike rate?
Louis Baudron has won 13 of 242 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 5.4% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Louis Baudron do best at?
Deauville by strike rate: 7 wins from 66 runners (10.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is Louis Baudron in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Louis Baudron's Fair A/E?
0.59, from 241 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Louis Baudron·SR 5.4%·A/E 0.59
KTB
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