Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.3% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
3.1%−1.2
n=32 · A/E 0.38 · £1 −29.40
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−4.3
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=3 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −0.40
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
6.9%+2.6
n=29 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −17.30
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−4.3
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.3
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle3313%−30.40
Chase9111.1%+0.10
Flat400%−4.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft2314.3%−20.40
Heavy1815.6%−8.90
Good300%−3.00
Good to Soft200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Auteuil (FR)2200%−22.00
Enghien (FR)4125%+5.10
Compiegne (FR)400%−4.00
Fontainebleau3133.3%−0.40
Saint-Cloud (FR)300%−3.00
Dieppe (FR)200%−2.00
Toulouse (FR)200%−2.00
Lyon Parilly (FR)100%−1.00
Moulins (FR)100%−1.00
Clairefontaine (FR)100%−1.00
Chateaubriant (FR)100%−1.00
Vittel (FR)100%−1.00
Dax (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1600%−6.00
Class 4100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite3133.3%1.06−0.40
2nd–3rd fav600%0.00−6.00
4th–6th fav1218.3%0.99−2.90
7th+ in betting2500%0.00−25.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f3925.1%−27.30
1m2f – 1m4f300%−3.00
1m5f – 2m200%−2.00
2m5f – 3m200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2015500%−5.00
201610110%−0.90
20201000%−10.00
20225120%−2.40
2023800%−8.00
2024200%−2.00
2026600%−6.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1200%−12.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners1218.3%−2.90
11-13 runners1100%−11.00
14-16 runners1000%−10.00
5-7 runners9111.1%−6.40
17+ runners400%−4.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 32 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
·0170000000130
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 12.4% of 1,206 runs since 2019 (189 horses).
Dom Alco (FR)0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 17.1% of 1,831 runs since 2008 (159 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 21.5% from 326. Weakest on Good going: 14.1% from 389.
Elusive City (USA)0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 9.7% of 8,432 runs since 2008 (636 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.4% from 1,123.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 46 archived runs · newest first
Every one of Luigi Maceli's 46 archived rides, from 10 September 2015 to 6 November 2026, newest first — 2 winners among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Luigi Maceli's strike rate?
Luigi Maceli has won 2 of 46 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 4.3% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Luigi Maceli in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 1 ride, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Luigi Maceli's Fair A/E?
0.52, from 45 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Luigi Maceli·SR 4.3%·A/E 0.52
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