Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 2.4% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
0%−2.4
n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−2.4
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−2.4
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
2.4%+0.0
n=42 · A/E 0.31 · £1 −34.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−2.4
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)2913.4%−21.00
Good500%−5.00
Good to Soft300%−3.00
Good to Firm200%−2.00
Soft200%−2.00
Heavy100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle (AW)1300%−13.00
Wolverhampton (AW)8112.5%+0.00
Southwell (AW)700%−7.00
Carlisle300%−3.00
Beverley200%−2.00
Doncaster200%−2.00
Lingfield (AW)100%−1.00
Ripon100%−1.00
Thirsk100%−1.00
Wetherby100%−1.00
Catterick100%−1.00
Musselburgh100%−1.00
Haydock100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 63013.3%−22.00
Class 5900%−9.00
Class 4300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite200%0.00−2.00
2nd–3rd fav700%0.00−7.00
4th–6th fav10110%1.48−2.00
7th+ in betting2300%0.00−23.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f1400%−14.00
1m – 1m1f1317.7%−5.00
1m5f – 2m600%−6.00
6f – 7f600%−6.00
Under 6f300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20222000%−20.00
20232214.5%−14.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps3812.6%−30.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners1915.3%−11.00
11-13 runners1200%−12.00
5-7 runners800%−8.00
14-16 runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 20 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0017000000000
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,598 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.
Progeny have won 11.7% of 7,108 runs since 2016 (641 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.4% from 326.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 45 archived runs · newest first
Every one of Madi Patzelt's 45 archived rides, from 11 May 2018 to 13 June 2023, newest first — one winner among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Madi Patzelt's strike rate?
Madi Patzelt has won 1 of 42 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 2.4% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Madi Patzelt's Fair A/E?
0.31, from 42 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Madi Patzelt·SR 2.4%·A/E 0.31
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