No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 1.5% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
0%−1.5
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−1.5
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−1.5
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
1.5%+0.0
n=65 · A/E 0.51 · £1 −55.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−1.5
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 1.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Flat races1.5% vs 1.5% · n=66 · A/E 0.50
When claiming1.5% vs 1.5% · n=65 · A/E 0.51
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)4112.4%−31.00
Good to Firm1200%−12.00
Good700%−7.00
Good to Soft300%−3.00
Soft300%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Wolverhampton (AW)1800%−18.00
Chelmsford City (AW)1000%−10.00
Lingfield (AW)600%−6.00
Leicester500%−5.00
Nottingham300%−3.00
Pontefract300%−3.00
Newcastle (AW)300%−3.00
Kempton (AW)3133.3%+7.00
Brighton200%−2.00
Haydock200%−2.00
Salisbury200%−2.00
Ripon200%−2.00
Thirsk100%−1.00
Wetherby100%−1.00
Catterick100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 64900%−49.00
Class 51100%−11.00
Class 76116.7%+4.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
2nd–3rd fav100%0.00−1.00
4th–6th fav1119.1%1.55−1.00
7th+ in betting5400%0.00−54.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
Under 6f2913.4%−19.00
6f – 7f2700%−27.00
1m – 1m1f700%−7.00
1m2f – 1m4f300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2015100%−1.00
20161700%−17.00
20171900%−19.00
20182713.7%−17.00
2019200%−2.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps6311.6%−53.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners2800%−28.00
8-10 runners2813.6%−18.00
14-16 runners500%−5.00
5-7 runners500%−5.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 11 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
14000000000·0
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 8.2% of 1,725 runs since 2014 (100 horses). Strongest on Good going: 11.4% from 368. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 12.3% from 146.
Progeny have won 9.8% of 4,515 runs since 2010 (297 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5.6% from 177.
Needwood Blade (GB)0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 7.9% of 2,746 runs since 2008 (187 horses).
Clodovil (IRE)0% · 0–1
Progeny have won 9.7% of 6,513 runs since 2008 (415 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 13.5% from 155.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 66 · newest first
The latest 50 of 66 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 3 September 2015 to 15 January 2019.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Megan Ellingworth's strike rate?
Megan Ellingworth has won 1 of 66 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 1.5% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Megan Ellingworth's Fair A/E?
0.50, from 66 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Megan Ellingworth·SR 1.5%·A/E 0.50
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