Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 18.8%
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 16.5% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
13.3%−3.2
n=45 · A/E 2.46 · £1 +11.30
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
18.8%+2.3
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
18.8%+2.3
n=32 · A/E 2.33 · £1 +8.90
When favourite
0%
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
7.7%−8.8
n=13 · A/E 2.58 · £1 +7.90
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
10.5%−6.0
n=38 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −22.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 16.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 1m2f – 1m4f0% vs 16.5% · n=30
In Class 110.5% vs 16.5% · n=38
In Group / Graded races10.5% vs 16.5% · n=38
On first rides for the horse13.3% vs 16.5% · n=45
In Flat races16.5% vs 16.5% · n=85 · A/E 0.79
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good24416.7%−10.00
Soft19526.3%−7.00
Good to Soft18211.1%−8.00
Heavy1218.3%−3.00
Standard (AW)11218.2%+19.30
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Saint-Cloud (FR)1815.6%−4.00
Deauville (FR)16318.8%+16.30
Chantilly (FR)15426.7%−6.00
Longchamp (FR)1300%−7.00
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)7342.9%−2.00
Fontainebleau (FR)22100%—
Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR)200%—
Toulouse (FR)200%−2.00
Nantes (FR)2150%−1.00
Compiegne (FR)200%—
Marseille Borely (FR)100%—
Sandown100%−1.00
Lyon Parilly (FR)100%—
Strasbourg (FR)100%—
Vichy (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 138410.5%−22.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite600%0.00−6.00
2nd–3rd fav3133.3%2.53+5.40
4th–6th fav800%0.00−8.00
7th+ in betting1715.9%2.46−0.10
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f3000%−11.00
1m – 1m1f24625%+12.30
6f – 7f21628.6%−4.00
1m5f – 2m5120%−3.00
Under 6f5120%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2008621219.4%−18.00
2009900%−2.00
2010900%−9.00
201311100%+15.90
20142150%+6.40
2015100%−1.00
2024100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps13215.4%−2.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
2-4 runners28725%—
8-10 runners16318.8%−10.00
11-13 runners1417.1%+0.40
5-7 runners14214.3%−7.00
14-16 runners7114.3%+11.90
17+ runners600%−4.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 51 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0020177142525038110
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 10.2% of 635 runs since 2008 (94 horses).
Highest Honor (FR)42.9% · 3–7
Progeny have won 11% of 946 runs since 2008 (97 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 14.6% from 198. Weakest on Heavy going: 7.8% from 103.
Kendor (FR)28.6% · 2–7
Progeny have won 11% of 734 runs since 2008 (89 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 16.1% from 161.
Medaaly (GB)0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 10.4% of 710 runs since 2008 (61 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.8% from 126. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 5.2% from 155.
Smadoun (FR)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 12.2% of 1,394 runs since 2008 (154 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 8% from 187.
Best Of The Bests (IRE)0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 6.6% of 979 runs since 2008 (74 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 10.1% from 307. Weakest on Good to Firm going: 3.2% from 188. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 9.8% from 193. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.9% from 139.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 172 · newest first
The latest 50 of 172 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 2 May 2005 to 22 August 2024.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is William Mongil's strike rate?
William Mongil has won 14 of 85 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 16.5% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is William Mongil's Fair A/E?
0.79, from 30 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
William Mongil·SR 16.5%·A/E 0.79
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